Difference between revisions of "Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment"

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=Initial Description=
=Initial Description=


The way around global warming and resource shortages is found through the simultaneous modernization of rich countries and slowing down of growth in rising countries, especially in Asia, while the path to industrial growth remains essentially closed to least developed nations. This is achieved by a de facto alliance of governments and large firms in the North, to hoard global natural resources and distribute them in an "ordered" way, giving priority to their home countries and their spheres of influence. This produces a permanent state of low-intensity, mostly economic, sometimes military conflict, mostly involving minor countries, but also using terrorism as a constant threat. Nation-states regain strength as the need for security grows, both internally and externally. International trade is slightly reduced and becomes a political weapon, as does the economy in general, producing erratic movements, inflation and high savings. Technological developments are fast but mostly targeted towards security and sustainability, and unequally shared. Public spirit is incensed, both against exterior enemies, as within countries, with strong opposition movements. Technology also becomes the tool of choice for the emergence of counter-cultures, hoping to bring about major changes in the state of the world and, meanwhile, trying to implement them at local, community- or project-based levels.
Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities.
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=To be amplified: contribute!=
=To be amplified: contribute!=

Revision as of 10:18, 23 July 2007

Scenariothinking.org > Ci'Num 07 Homepage > The 2030 Scenarios


Position in the scenario tree

  • Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - Yes
  • What is the primary constraint of human activities? - Resources
  • What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]


Initial Description

Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities.

To be amplified: contribute!

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