Political Aspects

Figure 1. Consequence Tree

After the detant of the cold war, the power of balance shifted from Russo-Americana to Pax Americana in 1980's. Internet developed corresponding to the shift, resulting the USA has been the dominant player in net world. As internet developed as the "information super highway" for military in America, the policics played a major role in the internet. However, in 2000's, the penetration of the internet throughout the globe as well as the sun rise in China drives the end of the Pax Americana in internet. As a result, the political role in internet becomes more complicated and sensitive issues.

Here indicated main issues that the government now plays a role in internet, since the scenario selected is "more or same" so the change in the effect may be limited to the certain level.

International regulations and cyber terrolism

Cyber terolism is the crucial constrain for the development of internet technology. Many governments have tried to resolute and prevent the emergency problem. The WWW is the transnational platform for the terrolists, therefore, these governments realize that the international regulations and consensus necessary for confronting the cyber terrolism in cooperation with the other countries. European Union countries conclude the " Treaty for cyber crime" in November 2001, in order to prevent further terrolisms and crimes with using the internet. The treaty articulates; 1. Propostion of the framework for the international regulation and then first step of the foundation of international cooperation regime for preventing cyber terrolism, 2. Proposition of crime tracking for every signed countries, 3. Unification of practices in criminal investigation and of definition of "cyber crimes and terrolisms". Now many countries have registered the treaty, but the substantial criminal law at each country has not yet caught up for the reality of cyber terrolisms and crimes. Governments will try to seek out the international cooperation efficiently, however, most of the cyber attach countinuously increase at the rate of the status quo. USA may promptly develops the regulations and technologies to prevent the terrolism independently. As a result "DIGITAL DEVIDE AMONG THE COUNTIRES" will gradually expand between developed countries and developing countries, whilst the user of internet exponentially increase in both countries.

In our scenario, the situation may not change in 10 years time. Because the Digital Devide among countries gradually expands, the cyber terrolism and crimes will increase gradually. And the hammer and nail situation between government and hacker remain same until 2015. Counpanies may suffer from cyber terrolism attackes, but the damage may limited thanks to the firewall system. Private person may suffer from virus, spam mails and so on, but may sophisticate for prevention against the attacks. In developing countries, the situation may become serious. The developing countries or its IPs may still be the breeding area for cyber terrolism, and the traking may be difficult because of the less development against the cyber terrolism. Also, bussiness and private may be vunerlable against these attack in these countires, due to the lack of the regulations and technologies. Only a few developing countries, such as Malaysia and China, where government promptly develops the multimedia area for inducing the foreign countries, may enjoy the increas of FDI into the IT industry. As a result, the international cooperation against the cyber terrolisms and crimes has not yet been formulated. Governments will respectively confront the issues, although talk on conference and exchange in information may gradually increase.

China factor

In China, the user of internet drastically increase in recent years. In 1997, the user in China was only 620,000, but in 2002, the number has sharply increased to 33,700,000. (http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1543/ ) In China, goverment focus cencoring internet site more on the broadcasting pages rather than the porn sites, according to BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/technology/2540309.stm ) In 2002, China blocks 19,032 sites from all over the world, including BBC, CNN, Google. The reason why the government do so is because the government is afraid of the rumor or the revolusion driven by the information dilusion. The eastern European countries in 1980 are the good example. The corruption of the Berlin wall was driven by the radio broadcasting by US militaly. The information shake people up and let them know the situation in the West, as well as the free atmosphere, so that the revolution process was speed up. In that context, the internet may plays major role in alertness. However, the Chinise government rather now take the moderate, gradual policy on internet. According to Sho-Kin-Shei, the head of Infomartion and Industry department in China, the China will rather concentrate on the fostering people who can manage the internet, on resolution of digital devide regardless of the income level and on establishment of the standards and technologies. On the othre hand, Sho also mentioned the future of the Chinese internet as the regulation to access to the "inappropriate site" should be more restrictive than ever before to provide "proper infromation" to the people.

So althrough the technology and engineers may change the method and form of use in internet, the people may never be affected the contents of the internet because of the regulations.