Scenario 1: "Internet Era"

2006-2007

Major oil disruption due to geopolitical unrest, terrorist activity in Saudi Arabia and a shutdown of oil production in Venezuela, coupled with growing demand from developed and developing countries results in oil prices reaching $85 a barrel. Industry is struggling; service and software industry feels the consequences too. Giants of the software industry start to react to recession.
Outsourcing and moving to cheaper labor markets is increased throughout the industry, including software. Consequently, lots of companies in western countries are shut down and unemployment increases, intensifying the recession in western countries. Recession hits developing countries, but not as hard, since industry is moving into the region.

Due to recession consumer spending decreases. Consumers do not invest in technology and are looking for cheaper alternatives, open source being one of them. Use of Web based applications, for which there are no licensing or sales, increases. The clash between two platforms intensifies radically. A system without an owner, tied together by set of protocols and open standards is gaining power over traditional software giants.

Google's Web-based word processor Writely and a Web-based spreadsheet software are used increasingly, since users can use them for free. Google's offerings post a nascent challenge to traditional software applications. Google becomes major information source.

At the same time, marketing budgets are the most affected by economic downturn. Some open source developers might slow down their distribution. Google still has enough funds available, so he takes the leading role in the web-based applications. Additionally, Google shifts its businesses model and starts to commercialize their software in partnership with Dell.

Basic principle of Web 2.0 is that consumers add value – Web 2.0 systems get better the more people use them. When the recession hits, Web 2.0 application will prosper. Internet era software is delivered as a service, not as a product, and business models of software vendors are changed.

2008-2009

Due to recession and constant cost cutting in all areas of economy, governments are increasingly promoting open source software. Additionally, governments are forced to decrease their funding of educational institutions. Universities become more motivated to find cheaper information systems solutions. They connect into networks of universities and build common IS systems based on open source software. On the other hand, due cheap PCs and web-based applications information and education via Web is available also to the developing world. Also smaller firms try to cut their operating costs by moving to open source and/or web based software applications IS systems. Competition between traditional platform and web 2.0 is fiercer than ever.

On the other hand, big corporations and financial institutions fear possible security issues arising from use of open source and stick to using proprietary software. They are now the main consumers of proprietary software vendors. Incomes of proprietary software developers are hurt. Lobbies of proprietary software creators try to force governments to promote closed source. Their efforts are in vain, since the use of open spread got very wide spread and is used also by governments.

Microsoft’s business model is not sustainable anymore, thus it tries to fight back by providing increasing number of web based application. However, Google has the key cost advantage over the competitors – automation of system administration, networking, and load balancing techniques.

2010-2015

Economy recovers. Importance of web 2.0 platform has grown in past five years. Traditional platform of operations system is defeated, since everything is available on the Web. Google has grown into main provider of range of software online.

Users can access their files from anywhere they can log in to internet and all they need is a personal back-up file for safety reasons. Software never has to be downloaded - it is accessible and maintained online and can be updated constantly. It is mainly funded from advertising and it provides its service to users for free.

Software is placed on internet and provider has constantly available data on which features are used the most and where the improvements are necessary. Software can be upgraded and improved instantly resulting in ever more consumer friendly applications.

This kind of distribution channel provides opportunity to all software developers to offer their product to the market. Software creation prospers and is becoming even more innovative. Companies remain more careful with using online software. Thus, they meet there IT needs through an open source vendor (e.g. Red Hat), who make adjustments and the software for them. Software is used it within firm, accessible to users via intranet.

Computer becomes merely a machine that enables users to access their online files. This is the era of Web 2.0 monopoly.