Difference between revisions of "India"
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4. Public health would be drastically affected | 4. Public health would be drastically affected | ||
5. High but irregular frequency of natural phenomenon such as cyclones, floods, draughts are expected. | 5. High but irregular frequency of natural phenomenon such as cyclones, floods, draughts are expected. | ||
= Indian Perspective, Policies & Stand = | |||
- An analysis of Indias emissions show that its per capita emission of carbon is one fourth of the global average. Even the top 10% of urban population emits well below the global average per capita emission. <br> | |||
- Emission reduction imposes costs in terms of lower GDP and higher poverty in India. Based on estimates a 30% CO2 reduction over a period of 30 years using annual emissions reduction targets leads to a fall in GDP of 4% and raises the number of poor by 17.5% in the 30th year (that is, if 2000 were taken as the baseline, these changes would occur by 2030). <br> | |||
- Cumulative emission reduction targets are, however, preferable to annual reduction targets and an optimum strategy where the country is free to decide when to reduce emissions as long as over 30 years the same amount of cumulative emissions are reduced. In this scenario the hardship of emission reductions with a cumulative reduction target of 30% (i.e. not specifying annual targets), the fall in GDP is 1.4% and increase in the number of poor is 6% in the 30th year both of which are less than in the case of annual reduction. <br> | |||
- Contrasted with these, scenarios involving tradable emission quotas give India an incentive to be carbon efficient. It becomes a net seller for the first 25 years, say up to 2020, if the quota are in the range of 1 ton per person as per 1995 population. Because of the reduction in carbon intensity due to the incentives provided by tradeable quota, less is emitted in later years when India becomes a net buyer. The results suggest that for India, and other developing countries, the window of opportunity to sell carbon quotas is only in the next two decades or so. Thus, precious time is lost during prolonged negotiations. <br> | |||
- India would like to see that a CDM project leads to real technology transfer giving the country the ability not only to operate the technology but also to replicate and innovate. <br> | |||
- Another concern of India is pricing of technology. There should be competition here. In a bilateral deal, the supplier of technology has monopoly power and the price charged for technology may be too high. <br> | |||
- India has an equity perspective on climate change consistent with China and developing nations; i.e. same per capita green house emissions. <br> | |||
- India would be anxious on an agreement between China and US. <br> | |||
- India feels: better to negotiate on technology than on reduction targets <br> | |||
- India is large resilient state and society having considerabe coping capacity with a stable democratic governance system. <br> | |||
Things that make India a peculiar situation: <br> | |||
- In-equal societial strate in Inda: <br> | |||
1/ Poor - Least equipped to handle climate change but most severly affected by consequences. They are the main drivers of the political clout as they are major voters. Very potent in swaying politicians based on their huge numbers. Convince them that climate change aversion is essetial for better quality of life and consequently they would push the state into action <br> | |||
2/ Middle Class - Growing in number. Has interest in increasing economic activity and difficult too convince. Somewhat isolated from the worst effects of climate change due to its location in urban spots. <br> | |||
- NGOs/Think Tanks and Researc Institutes - Centres of execellence in a sea of mediocracity. Indian civil society lacks infrastructure to support their efforts <br> | |||
- Private Sector - Influntial voice in ploicy making. Several industrialist lobby against carbon caps in parliament. E.g sutomobile industry becoming the backbone of economic and industrial activity and trasportation in India (like US). Automobile industry lobbies hard for investment in roads than in efficient energy usage. <br> | |||
- Civil conflict - Several fault lines are present. <br> | |||
a/ Many times the inequalities within rural-urban, employed-unemployed, commercial-labouring groups manifest as religious conflicts and tensions <br> | |||
b/ Religious/cultural fault lines of politicaly active groups aligned towards various orthodox fanatics/fundamentalists like Christians/Muslims/Hindus/Sikhs etc. <br> | |||
c/ Maoists/Hindu Extremists/Muslim Extremists/New groups may emerge in most affectd (poor) areas to create conflict <br> | |||
The atcual effect of these would depend on timing, size, location and management of the conflict by Indian government. <br> | |||
==India's perspective on Copenhagen == | ==India's perspective on Copenhagen == | ||