Whereabout the fourth generation mobile technology

Description:

The possible future of 4G techonolgy. ITU will disclose the future standard of 4G technology till 2010.

Enablers:

- The development of radio communication technology (devise and communicator) for enabling mobile broadband connection up to 10 Mega bps

- The development of communication technology for seamless service among mobile, WiFi, fixed connection and PHS.

- United standards for the 4G technogoly

- Development of contents which needs 10M bps connection

- Merger and Acquisition with fixed communicator, ISPs and WiFi providers

Inhibitors:

- New entrants : Given the seamless service, chances are fixed connectors (ISP) and WIFI providers. The providers can relatively easily enter the market through using the conventional communicator for land line, existing WiFi bases and so on.

- Consumer: Difficult to change their perception from mere "mobile phone" to the seamless service. What is the advantage for consumer to buy these products? Can normal consumer understand the advantage of seamless services?

- Industry rivary: The competition will be intense for the vertical or horizontal integration among the ISPs, mobiles, fixed lines and WiFis. Need for scale of economy to lead the industry standard, cost leadership, infulence to the government and regulatories and absorbtion of the contents provider.

- Security issues: Given the wireless communication through mobile phone, the invasion of the privacy will be an issue. Development of SSL for mobile commerce or development of sophisticated code for communication should be developed.

Paradigms:

- The seamless service among mobile, fixed line, WiFi and ISPs will drastically change the industry structure. The four separated industries integrated one market, resulting that the companies in the industries will face the new competitors, convergence, intense sharing the cotent providers and related M-commerce providers.

- Social life style will also change. The Mobile phone will have bigger monitor so that customers can watch the TV or play online games through the mobile phones. In Japan, the fixed fee structure for packet communication established already, therefore, the cost of mobile communication will be no longer a problem for customer. Communication between the people may also change, the video e-mails, shopping through the mobile phone, listening the music through mobile phone (substitute of MP3 player) and all contents or services provided currently through internet will turn to the mobile services.

Experts:

- NTT DoCoMo representative in Rotterdam

Timing:

2001: Standardized technologies related to 3.5 G (downward over 8Mbps in 5MHz bandwidth), such as HSDPA（ High Speed Downlink PacketAccess) and VoIP (Voice over IP) service

WP8F（Working Party 8F）of ITU（International Telecommunications Union）started discussion about the possible feature, standardized technology of the 4G

2005: The communication speed will become over 30Mbps

2010: Forth generation service starts with bandwidth 50-100Mbps

2015: Necessary to build 1.2 GHz-1.7 GHz frequency for accomodating the increased communication