Aging population

Description:

Since 1950 the average life expectancy worldwide has increased by 20 years to 66 years. Demographers of the United Nations even expect the average lifespan to reach 76 by the year 2050. By 2050, the UN says, 21% of the population will be over 60 in comparison to 10% today.

The "revolution in longevity" is mainly a result of better healthcare and nutrition. Not only the industrial nations but also the developing countries will experience this shift. For them it will be even more difficult to cope as they do not have the financial means to cope with increasing costs for pensions and care programs for older people. Their society is often based on strong family committment in which younger family members care for the older ones, but if the older ones live longer and as the relation between the number of older and younger people is shifting, this family based system might not work in the future.

The aging population will cause social but also economic shifts and change our world. This will of course influence the future of the Internet as the question is how the Internet can adress the needs of older people.

Enablers:

   1.Health care development

An improved health care system will positively influence the aging of the world's population. Especially for the developing countries in which the health care infrastructure offers a lot of room for improvement, a better supply of medicine and a higher rate of doctors and hospitals will lead to higher life expectancy than today.

   2.Nutrition

Improved food availability and nutrition will positively influence the aging of the world's population. This is the case for all regions around the world but especially for developing countries.

Inhibitors:

   1. Global terrorism Worldwide terrorism and war

Due to worldwide terrorism and war the development of better health care systems and a better access to food and nutrition would be slowed down if not even hampered. More money would be spent on arming forces instead of improving medical and health infrastructure.

   2. HIV/AIDS distribution

HIV/AIDS has a strong impact on the aging population. The disease is most prevalent in low-income countries with rampant poverty, deficient health care systems and relatively low life expectancies and survival rates. A higher rate of HIV infections and AIDS mortality would at least slow down the aging of the world's population.

Paradigms:

Old: Our social structure of society will not change dramatically.

New: The aging of our population will drastically change our way of living, the perception of age and the social interaction.

Experts:

Sources for additional information about this driving force. (if you have found people, put the links to them)

Timing:

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/pdf/80chapterii.pdf

Web Resources:

Useful resources on the web relating to this force.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0422/p20s01-wmgn.html

http://econwpa.wustl.edu:80/eps/hew/papers/0405/0405001.pdf