Coen van Paassen - Learning Log

Learning Log

Understanding the New Global Business Environment

Rotterdam School of Management
EMBA 2005
December 13, 2005
Jeffrey Sweeney

Professional Reflection

When considering scenario thinking, I immediately think about the opportunity to apply the practice in my work. I do not play a strategic role in my company but am responsible for tactical and operational management. I manage the computer systems infrastructure for our European operations. This includes a wide area network as well as shared computer systems that are used by our Operating Companies. The infrastructure spans thirteen countries and is managed by three major parties that are based in the Netherlands and India. Currently, we are nearing the end of a six-month project to relocate the entire system to a new hosting and network provider.

I am experiencing a lot of pain in trying to change the entire system because the individual parties involved in the system have reached a state of entropy. When trying to make large changes, I am restricted by resistance and am forced to make slow and gradual changes that take all of my energy.

After reading the articles about system thinking and modeling and experiencing the scenario creation process in class and in my group, I now understand the complexities of change that were not evident in the Change Management class from the previous semester at RSM. I feel that I am better equipped to identify the major leverage points in the system and enact changes that are needed in my project.

I have also begun using some of the techniques of scenario thinking to better handle some of the uncertainties in my project. For one, I have created a new approach to setting up system recovery tests based on scenarios rather than test cases. Secondly, I am re-scoping new requirements for the project in a flexible manner by creating different scenarios related to the usage of the systems. Finally, I am establishing scenarios to help optimize the organizational structure and ensure that the future operations of the system are stable and streamlined for long term success.

Beyond these applications, I do not have much opportunity to use scenario thinking in my current profession. I will continue to develop my understanding and attempt to use the methodology throughout my career. If I am able to use scenario thinking to improve flexibility in my approach to solving problems, then I may be able to use it to further my career.

Academic Reflection

The discipline of scenario thinking can be difficult to master and may be more of an art than a science. I found that learning and applying the scenario thinking process was challenging but in the end has enabled me to better handle the uncertainty of the future. The only question that remains in my mind is how to fully benefit from the findings in business?

When thinking of the difficulties I had with scenario thinking, I find that I was mostly challenged to focus on the process and not the results. Typically, although I am always interested to produce quality work, I try to keep a production process as efficient as possible. This allows me to deliver reasonable results in a limited timeframe. The scenario development process is more complex since it involves many input streams and therefore requires a never-ending iterative approach. The results of the scenario process are never complete; instead its value is in its consistent way of dealing with uncertainty.

This brings me to the next challenge I faced in scenario thinking, the daunting task of dealing with the major uncertainties to develop an accurate perspective of the scenario subject matter. This required identifying unknown factors and to become an expert in certain subject matters in a very short amount of time in order to identify the most important driving forces. The last challenge that I struggled with while developing scenarios was the task of arranging a limited number of scenarios so that they cover the spectrum of possible futures and do not leave gaps that can result in costly surprises.

Even though maintaining discipline during the scenario creation process was challenging, I found other components of scenario thinking to come easily. I have systems thinking experience since I have been working with computer systems for 10 years. Performing root cause analyses and preparing business continuity plans helped me to look back at past situations and prepare for possible futures. Since I am curious and am interested in learning, I have a wide scope of knowledge and read from several different sources of information. With this experience and a creative mindset, scenario thinking comes naturally.

What did I learn about scenario thinking? I learned that I should not take my first assumption as the truth. I saw how to draw upon other people’s knowledge to gain robust viewpoints. From my team, I learned to focus more on the process and maintain a dynamic mindset. I also learned how to improve my ability to learn from history and to think laterally when considering the future.

The one thing that I am not sure about after experiencing the scenario thinking process is how to apply the insights gained and implement a business strategy. Examples in class concerning the price of oil and drug use in America seem simpler since there is one main variable: supply vs. demand. In our group we foresaw futures for hospitals in the Netherlands where they could be bankrupt and governmentally controlled, privatized and targeting specific niches, or owned by a multinational corporation and serving all of Europe. These insights leave me with little direction of what a hospital should do to prepare for these possibilities. It would seem that hospitals could detect warning signs of each scenario and then take action but it is possible that they might not be able to change their fate. Knowledge of the future is not very helpful if one does not have the power to use it towards their advantage.

Personal Reflection

I feel that ordering the complexities in my personal life and exploring the different scenarios that I and my family might face, we may better manage our work/life/school/family system and stay a strong family. Therefore I applied scenario thinking to my family in the hopes of opening up communication channels on difficult subjects and finding a common understanding between myself and those I love. These scenarios are focused on the next five years of our lives.

I have a multi-cultural family and experience complexities resulting from our cultural differences in addition to my drive to achieve at work and school. I am American while my girlfriend is Dutch. We are engaged to be married but do not have any plans to arrange a wedding. We have a daughter together and are expecting a second child in March. Recently, my girlfriend has decided to move out of our home in Amsterdam to a town which is closer to her family. This will cause me to have to live in two cities or endure long commuting hours. To remedy this, I have reduced my working schedule to four days a week so that I can spend adequate time with her and our daughter. We have been through some tough times during the past two years and can only hope that we will have more time to strengthen our relationship when I am finished with school.

Driving Forces: • We are both drawn to our separate families
• My career is increasing in importance
• Our children will require more care
• We both need to feel free and have an escape
• Increasing global instability and tensions could put my residency at risk
• Traveling becomes more dangerous
• We have increasing difficulty in finding common goals and values
• Our difference in customs/language creates a larger barrier between us
• The European economy worsens and puts my job at risk
• I increasingly follow my passion for school and information
• Non-Mutual friends increasingly draw each of our time
• My parents/brothers are less involved in my life
• Resurgence of free time causes me to lose direction in my life
• We are increasingly in love with each other and our children

Scenario 1: Complete Unity

After I finish school, I spend time with my girlfriend and her family and adopt stronger family values. I learn to be a better father and continue to work four days a week to allow for more quality time with my family. My girlfriend and I both sacrifice non-common distractions and treat each other with the utmost respect. After our second child is born, we marry and establish homes in the Netherlands and the USA. My wife works part time and I give up aggressive career aspirations in order to maintain a stable household. My wife recognizes that we are a multi-cultural family and allows for time to be spent together while in either country. We learn to make the most out of our differences and act as a well-balanced team.

Scenario 2: Love Limbo

When I finish school, I find that I can not focus on my family as much as I wanted. My girlfriend and I decide to hold off marriage until the ‘right time’. Our second child is born in March which causes more strain on our relationship. My girlfriend moves into her own apartment closer to her family and I decide to spend most of my time in Amsterdam. We see each other in the weekends but are apart during the week. We miss each other while I am in Amsterdam and are happy to reunite every week but always seem to argue after the weekend is over. I spend equal time between my own distractions and family. My girlfriend gets a job in her home town and makes plans to stay there for the long term. Our children speak mostly Dutch and very little English. Once every two years, we travel to the USA for three weeks and see my friends and parents. The stress during travel leaves us tired and unwilling to familiarize our children in my country. This way of life continues with only slight variations through the years. Scenario 3: Broken Family

After school ends for me, my girlfriend moves to her hometown. We try to make the best of it but the stress of having our second child in March, my girlfriend’s nostalgia, and my unwillingness to change my expectations cause us to separate. We arrange formal visiting terms so that I can see the children and act rigidly towards each other. One year after the separation, my (ex) girlfriend gets back together with her old boyfriend and I decide to return to the United States. From this point on, I am only in touch with my children over the phone and see them once a year for a two-week visit. I try to ‘move on’ in life but am haunted by the pain of losing my family. I attempt new relationships but decide that I am better off living alone and focusing on my career as an outlet.

Conclusion

As I mentioned before, it is difficult to know what to do with the insights gained from scenario thinking. In this case, the same is true. I shared these scenarios with my girlfriend and it helped us to start a conversation on the subject. I feel that by simply discussing these issues openly, we build a better bond and have already stared to improve the possible outcome. If our situation changes, then we can always look back to the scenarios and look for the warning signs that we identified. This may help us to consciously follow our future paths rather than let ourselves slowly lose the bond that we currently have.