Difference between revisions of "New beginning"
| Line 5: | Line 5: | ||
---- | ---- | ||
[[Image:senario.jpg]] | |||
Revision as of 08:38, 14 June 2005
In this scenario, two koreas will stop the ideological dispute and go into one economical union. This new phase of cooperation will be partly motivated by the rising of China, which would be both threats and opportunities in Koreas. And inside north Korea fundamental changes seems to occur. So mainly led by economical reasons and supported by political interests around Korea will face new beginning in 2015.
2005-2006
After Bush administration managed to retake the power in 2005, they seem to have more flexible diplomatic methods considering the world’s criticisms. And south korea’s new administration will have more advanced ‘sunshine policy’, which will be not a unilateral aid but for mutual benefits. China wants to be super power at least in North East Asia, which makes it help north korea to become some burdens. Under all these circumstances new round of six party talks in 2006 will deal with R&D aids not just raw materials such as rice, fertilizers, etc. Because of Wassenaar Arrangement or catch-all, studies will be very restricted but agriculture and IT will quite potential. The former is essential for north koreans and the later is a common interest for both north and south. As for IT, US supervisors can be also dispatched to moniter the researches.
2007-2008
Beijing Olympics in 2008 are the events that China has been looking forward to and it has paid all its attention. As much as China its neibor nations also have been expecting ‘external economies.’ According to their interests they will cooperate or compete with China. North Korea, which has great interest in China’s social capitalism and better IT solution since R&D with south korea, will participate in the events. Tiwan, which has struggled for China’s military threats, will cooperate to take parts in the Olympics for boosting its economics. This action will strain the US which have supported Tiwan to restrain China. Japan, the US ally and the china’s old enermy, will feel tension and this can lead to accomplish FTA between Korea and Japan.
2009-2010
The great success of Beijing Olympics and China’s economic growth will affect on north korean society in 2009. More and more north koreans will across the border to China for a better life. As their immigration will be uncontrolable, their reentry to north will occur to make illegal businesses or with similar intersts. With the help of IT those effects will be more spread beyond regions near border. Stimulated by open china policy north korean government will expand the free trade areas or industrial complex for foreign investments. To a certain point Kim Jung Il’s regime will appear to control the country. But people’s knowing the world and their desire for better lives will increase to make the society unrest. Some incidents will occur here and there. South Korea’s FTA with china will be negotiated.
2011-2012
Kim Jung Il doesn’t have great cause for the nation as much as Kim Il sung. His way of controlling the nation will be just following his father, idolizing himself but disgracing his father. This will not be effective and the military force’s dissatisfaction will be accumulated. And suddlenly in 2011 coup-d’etat will come about and the leader will be changed into one of elites in the army. Here china’s influence will affect quite strong. But they will not just listen to beijing. They want new strong nation. Internally they will arrange the nation fast and effectively, and then they will try to open their economics very strictly but more diversely and flexibly. They will know the importance of the US in the world and try to communicate with the US in different ways. At this point, south korea’s economics will not quite good enough. New government, new environment with several FTAs, new north korea, complex allies and competitors around it, etc. There will be so many things it should apply itself to.
2013-2014
In 2013 south korea’s desperate struggle to grow will be fruitful at last and its economics will be stabilized. Its several and close talks with north will prove this to the world. North korea’s door will be more open. Civil exchanges will be extended. North’s commercials will be broadcasted and their products will normally displayed on the shelves in south. Business deputies of both sides will gather even in seoul. After cetain period of adaptation south korea will make new strategy for its future and prepare for next trilateral FTA among china, korea and japan.
2015
South korea is export-oriented nation. Till 2015 so many korean companies will be multinational and make their roles all over the world. So what should be done inside the nation is to stablize itself firmly and make strong political power to support them. New cooperation with north korea, servival among strong countries’ interests, and a decade experiences of world competition will build up healty fundamentals of south korea. Forming economic union with north and pulling it beside, now south can go to the world with north. This is new beginning of one korea to leap in the world.