New Beginning

The scenario

The year is 2030 and the Northern African countries are celebrating the finally concluded agreement creating the Mediterranean Union. This treaty, a French initiative, creates a trade zone like that one implemented by Europe with the EU. Now, countries like Morocco and Algeria will be able to access more easily the EU countries and also take advantage of all trade agreements between these two regions.

This agreement is also a reinforcement of the progressive European policy of expansion based in ideals of open borders and free trade.

The last 20 years of economic growth show that the choice was correct and Europe has been living a long period of prosperity and peace since the end of the financial crisis of 2009.

Large investments in sustainable sources of energy helped Europe to be less dependent of oil and gas and, at the same time, created many jobs in Morocco and Algeria with its extensive solar panel farms. In a move to diversify its suppliers of fossil fuels, the European Union accepted Turkey as one of its members, which streghtened its ties with the Middle Eastern countries. This also helped to reduce the threat of terrorism and facilitated dialogue with the countries of the region.

But, another challenge is just beginning: as the European Union became more and more integrated, the interactions among countries became stronger, and even a small event in one country could cause a big impact in the neighboring areas. Because of that, a new type of governance was created and will begin to be adopted. That was named network governance, and the basic concept is to give seats in the parliament of one country to representantives of other countries, so they can participate in the decisions that can cause trouble beyond its own borders. This new concept still needs to be tested but seems very promising.

Timeline

2010 - 2015

With the end of the Financial Crisis, a stable and increasing economical growth started all over Europe. Because of that, the money that was being used to fund the financial institutions started to be invested in long-term policies to develop the recently admitted countries to the same level of the old members.

This new acquired wealth was also used by the Governments to support the development of sustainable sources of energy. This decision was received with great enthusiasm by the public opinion, which were very concerned about the future problem of the global warming. That decision was also based on a desire of the EU to become less dependent of Russia regarding oil and gas. The possibility of becoming hostage of their prices policy became very clear after the Ukranian case, when Russia simply turned off the pumps to force an increase of price.

Later in this period, Turkey's pledge to become part of the European Union was accepted. There were some public protests from both sides, but those were considered as being promoted by minorities affiliated to extreme right wing parties. This new partnership proved to be profitable for both, because EU gained a fast growing market and Turkey

Introduction

The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal within the area.

Conclusion

Add conclusion here

Graphical timeline