Proliferation of extremist / dictatorial regimes

Description

By Mihai Andreoiu

The last twenty years have seen substantial unrest in some important oil producing countries. The 1990-91 Gulf War, the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the current problems with Iran and the emerging dictatorial regime of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela have all affected the world political and economical landscape. In fact few of the top exporter oil countries can be called stable or democratic countries. Further examples of authoritarian regimes include Lybia and even Russia some political analysts might consider.

Proliferation of such regimes in major oil producing countries can have critical consequences on the availability of oil as this can be used more as political weapon rather than to solely bring a good economic benefit. It is also well known that dictatorships are not very efficient from an economic perspective which is also a factor driving towards reduced export capacity of these countries. As example in Venezuela Hugo Chavez's regime fired almost 20,000 professionals from PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela SA) following a strike and replaced them with army personel or volunteers from Cuba with no experience.

Enablers

- Fragile democracy: short track record democracies will lack proper state organizations able to prevent the accesion of extremist leaders;

- Precarious economic development / Poverty: Countries without a significant middle class segment where serious wealth gaps exists between the upper class and working class will always be more prone to emergence of dictators that will capitalize on support from the poor based on vain promisses for the better;

- Emergence of extremist parties or fundamentalist religious movements: i.e. the rise of the National Socialist party in Germany after WWI or the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1971;

Inhibitors

- Economic growth: As a nation develops and the standard of living increases the chances that the political system is a democracy are higher. The poor class diminishes meaning that the numbers of those to whom populist leaders prone to become dictators appeal decrease;

- Foreign intervention:If such regimes emerge and threaten the security of the world there will be international mechanisms set in motion in order to correct the situation. Of course rightfulness and selection of such interventions is a much debated subject. One major question emerges: Do the large oil importers care about the faith of people in these countries or mainly about the energy resurces there?

Paradigms

If the need for resources of more developed countries increases while there still is extremist control of such resources by certain producing countries it is likely to see more international conflicts or bilateral controversial deals. This is an assumption for Shell's "Scramble" energy scenario for 2050.