Future of the European Union in 2030

Team Composition

• Arthur Danzi
• Gudmundur Kristjansson
  
• Mauricio Suzuki
  
• Sameer Agarwal
  
• Sri Hari Krishnan
  

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions - Mauricio

1. What is the definition of Europe?
2. What countries are part of the European Union?
3. What is the history of the European Union?
4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
5. What is the euro zone?

Politics - GK

1. How is the European Union Governed?
2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
3. How is the European parliament elected?
4. How is the European parliament structured?
5. How do the countries work together?
6. How does the EU take decisions?
7. How does the EU tick?
8. How is the EU budget managed?
9. Are there any planned budget policy changes?
10. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
11. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
12. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?
13. What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?

Policy - GK

1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK
2. What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M
3. What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
4. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
5. What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here
6. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
7. What are the foreign policies of the EU?

Environment - Sri Hari

1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
2. EU's response to climate change?

The way forward for the EU is an integrated energy and climate change policy, as the burning of fossil fuels is a major contributor to climate change. EU leaders endorsed such a policy in March 2007. This demonstrates Europe’s global leadership in tackling climate change while paving the way for the EU to increase its security of supply and strengthen its competitiveness. An integrated energy and climate change policy signals the launch of a new industrial revolution to transform the way we produce and use energy, and the types of energy we use. The goal is to move to a climate-friendly economy based on a combination of low-carbon technologies and energy sources.

To limit global warming to 2 °C, global emissions of greenhouse gases will need to stop increasing within 10 to 15 years and then be cut to around half of 1990 levels by 2050. The EU is striving for a new global agreement to reach these goals. As a first step, it considers that industrialised countries should collectively cut their emissions of greenhouse gases to 30% below 1990 levels by 2020. Developing countries, such as China and India, will also need to start limiting the growth in their emissions. To underline its determination and set an example for its partners to follow, the EU has agreed to cut its own greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% by 2020 regardless of what other countries do. The EU plans to achieve this reduction through actions foreseen in the new integrated energy and climate policy together with measures already in place.

The EU leaders have decided to: • save 20% of energy consumption compared with projections for 2020 by improving energy efficiency; • increase to 20% by 2020 the share of renewable energies in overall energy consumption, thus almost tripling the current level; • increase tenfold — to at least 10% — the share of biofuels in overall petrol and diesel consumption by 2020, provided that sustainable, ‘second-generation’ biofuels from non-food crops become commercially available; • develop and promote low- or even zero-emitting technologies, including carbon capture and storage — i.e. preventing CO2 entering the atmosphere by capturing it and storing it underground in depleted gas fields or old salt mines — so that these can make a major contribution to reducing emissions by 2020; • better integrate EU energy markets, i.e. moving towards more competitive, Europe-wide electricity and gas markets; • better integrate EU energy policy with other policies, not just with environment policy, but also with policies such as research, agriculture and trade; • increase international cooperation: if the EU can take a common approach on energy, and articulate it with a common voice, it can lead global debate.

The starting point is a three-year energy action plan for Europe for the period 2007–09 designed to set the EU — and its citizens — on the right course to combine the fight against climate change with greater security of energy supply and continued economic growth. Source: The Way Forward: an integrated approach, Europe on the move, European commission, 2007

Economics - Sameer

1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
4. Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society - Arthur

1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?
4. What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?
5. How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?

Terrorism - Mauricio

1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics - Sameer

1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?
6. What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?
7. What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?

Geopolitics - Sri Hari

1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
2. Enlargement of EU?
3. What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
4. Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?
5. Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
6. In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
7. If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
8. How will EU and China relationship develop?
9. How will EU and India relationship develop?
10. How will EU and US relationship develop?
11. How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
12. What role does Africa play for Europe?
13. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
14. Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
15. How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?

Infrastructure - Arthur

1. Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

1. World Unification
2. Threat of war
3. The Rise of BRIC Economies
4. Self interest and priorities of each state

Technological Driving Forces

1. Public attitude to science and technology
2. Mobility
3. Nanotechnology
4. Cost of new technology

Environmental Driving Forces

1. Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU
2. Scarcity of Water in the EU
3. Increasing need to clean energy

Economic Driving Forces

1. EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.
2. Threat of total financial meltdown
3. European integration
4. European dependence on Russian Gas

Societal Driving Forces

1. EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications
2. Increasing Mobility
3. Aging population
4. Changes in Religion buildup of Europe
5. Aging Europe

References

Scenario Reports

• NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary
• New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
• European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)
• Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States
• Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)

Economic Reports

• Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union

Presentations

• Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"

News & Other Sources

• Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios
• Economic Problems of European Union
• Immigration Problems in EU
• Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?
• Q&A: EU enlargement
• About the European Union on Wikipedia

Interview Questions

1. What are the main political issues currently facing the European Union
2. What are the main political forces in the European Union
3. What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU?
4. Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?

Meeting Agenda

September 9, 2009 - 17:00 to 18:30
September 14, 2009 - 14:00 to 15:00