Global Security

Description:

After 911, US administration’s attitude towards foreign policy and multilateralism has severely affected international relations. ‘War on terror’, conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, as well as the continued pursuit of narrow national and economic interests are distracting governments from the genuine threats that humanity faces .Thus, efforts to improve global security are inadequate. New leadership in the USA and UK in the coming years may bring new opportunity for progress on this problem.

Enablers:

1. The adverse effects of climate change and global warming

2. Competition for increasingly scarce resources, especially oil

3. International Islamic terrorism

4. Increasing socio-economic divisions and the marginalization of the majority world cause tensions such as West (Judeo-Christian) vs. Islam, China vs. Taiwan, North Korea vs. US, Poor nations (mainly in Africa) vs. wealthy nations, Local tribes and peoples vs. Western private companies using local resources, Russia vs. former Muslim republics

5. Further spread of military technologies and weapons of mass destruction (Chemical, Biological, Atomic)

Inhibitors

1. Replace carbon-based sources with diversified local renewable energy sources; manage energy efficiency, resource recycling.

2. Phase out of WMD worldwide.

3. Adjust global systems of trade, aid and debt to reduce poverty.

4. Use smarter counter-terrorism police operations against violent revolutionary groups and make dialogue with terrorist leaderships.

Paradigms:

Competition for scarce sources such as oil, socio-economic divisions and the marginalization of the majority world are reasons causing insecurity. If governments can move beyond the current narrow national and economic interests, using the energy and resources currently devoted to anti-war into positive efforts to promote peace and security. A more peaceful and secure global order can be established.

Experts:

See sources

Timing:

2008 New leadership in USA and UK

2008-2012 New governments change foreign policy and attitudes towards climate change and energy etc problems.Reform of regional organizations and the United Nations help governments move beyond the current narrow national and economic interests.

2015-2020 Technology improves and new energy without CO2 emission gradually replaces traditional energy.

Reference:

http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefings/globalthreats.pdf

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism