Future of China in 2020

I. Introduction

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 2 of class DGM EMBA-06 on the following subject:
The future of the China in 2020

The members of Group 2 are:

• Kim, Sung Min
  
• Park, Seok Kwang
  
• Lee, In Kyu
  
• Choi, Byoung Tae
  
• Choi, Hyeon Cheol
  
• Hwang, Keon Young
  

External note: This report is like a graduate student's project - very primitive.

1.Systems Diagram

2.Building the Scenario

3.Scenarios

4. 20 Research Questions & Answers

(1)What is the strength of the china yuan compared with the US dollar?

Fixed exchange rate system of yuan could keep a domestic price stabilization and protect the uncertainty of international payments by short term investment money.

(2)Whether the Olympic games of china will be successful or not in terms of economic of china?

Through Beijing Olympic game, it will be expected that the investment for infrastructures over 1.5 Trillion yuan and the increase of consumption and the job creation over a million. It will be one of the the most successful Olympic games economically.

(3)What will become of china’s GDP in 2020?

China’s GDP will exceed 4.0 Trillion dollars similar to Japan and lead the Asian economy.

(4)How to reduce the gap between poor and rich in china?

The solution to this problem lies in the adoption of a steeper, graduated tax, taxing the rich more and the poor less. This many years ago in the developed country, it was fairly effective in maintaining an equilibrium among the economic groups.

(5)How to deal with the pollutions by many factories and vehicles?

They have try to develop and utilize technologies to solve the major environmental challenges it is currently facing and will face in the future. These efforts will be focus on technologies that will treat waste water, prevent air pollution and improve environmental monitoring systems.

(6)Is it possible for Chinese economy to be mired in depression?

In case of over capacity due to excessive investment, Chinese economy can fall into depression.

(7)Do the alliances (with foreign capital) help the Chinese companies to strengthen their competitiveness?

They may enjoy some advantages of the alliances for a time such as increase of market share and acquirement of advanced technology. However, Chinese companies should take a risk of retrieving investment and failing in playing in global market with their brands, which are unknown in overseas’ markets.

(8)How does the intellectual property(IP) Chinese companies?

When the companies are local players, the IP didn’t seem to be serious barrier to them. As the globalization is in progress, the IP become critical factor for the companies which want to be more competitive. For the Chinese companies, the lack of competitiveness in IP will be weak point for a while as far as they play in global stage.

(9)How long can the low-wage laborer market be an advantage to Chinese companies?

Labor intensive industries and the low value added products related industries, which require unskilled and uneducated laborers, can enjoy the advantage from it. The more advanced industries in technology as well as finance the companies move into, the more technical experts and highly educated workers Chinese companies would require. Therefore, they should experience weakening their competitiveness until recruiting the experts.

(10)How big is the influence of strengthening the competitiveness of Chinese companies?

Currently, Chinese economy skyrocket due to the cost advantage from low wage laborers. The check from neighboring countries will be the barriers to Chinese economic growth.

(11)How many people will increase in China?

Approximately 10 million people increase per year. Total population will be 1.4 billion in 2010 and 1.6 billion in 2020. After 2020 it will be slightly down.

(12)Is it possible to maintain political stability in the future?

There is a high possibility to break political stability due to the gap of the rich and the poor, east coast and west coast, minority problems such as Tibet and so on.

(13)What are the most competitive factors in China economy?

Low wages and large market is the strongest factor than any other countries.

(14)Can China overcome the U.S. restraint?

China is only country to confront with the U.S. power in the future. The U.S. impose restraint on trade, foreign exchange rate, human right and so on. If we think of china’s population and economic growth rate, China can overcome this kind of restraint in the near future.

(15)Is Taiwan the burden of China?

Taiwan is one of the burdens of China. But this is not a heavy burden. The national power is too much difference between two sides in all area including military and economic. Therefore it is useless to compare national power between these two. China can develop in the future regardless Taiwan issue.

(16)Would there be domestic agricultural crises?

China will neither empty the world grain market nor become a major food exporter. It does seem likely, however, that China will import more grain in the coming decades. China's foresight in dealing with the challenge will most likely determine whether the gap between production and demand turns into a domestic agricultural crisis or leads to more effective development of the nation's food economy.

(17)What would be the Future of Taiwan and China conflict?

Among 23 million Taiwanese there are about 1/3 of those who would desire for country independence and about 1/3 who would oppose this idea. Another 1/3 choose the status quo. Taiwan, supported by American military force, hopes to attract foreign attention during the Olympic Games in 2008, by starting the conflict. However, because three sides, America, China and Taiwan are involved in this conflict it would not be easy for country to gain independence; therefore the conflict would continue and may be involved into the breakthrough war by 2020.

(18)Would the Human Rights be protected?

Globalization through out the Foreign Direct Investment and the increase of the Free Economic Zones will lead country to democracy. Therefore, the Human Right will be supported and people would have the freedom to speak out.

(19)What will be the leading production/industry in China, by 2020?

The foreign electrical companies are empowering Chinese people teaching them the business in electronics. In addition, Chinese local companies are strengthening their local and global competitiveness in communication. By 2020, China will be fully able to open and manage the Electronics industry as well as Communication.

(20)Economy crisis maybe happened (RMB depreciate)

The current pressure for RMB is appreciation. The value of RMB is kept artificially low.

III. Individual Work : Driving Forces

Host to the 2008 Olympic Games Beijing,china

Elimination the gap between poor and rich in china

Affective Issues on China Economy

Chinese Pollution Problems by Rapid Growth

China's economic productivity growth

China's accumulated capital as the driving force of the economic growth

Growth of the Gaming Industry

The Future of TV

Population of China

Foreign Exchange Rate of China

Shift to Alternative Energy Sources

Acid Rain