Scenario 2: Conservative Outlook on Advertising Future

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2007: The negative public opinion regarding spam over the previous years culminates in the formation of strict laws outlawing the dissemination of spam. Some individuals receive severe prison sentences in the US for their involvement in the dissemination of spam. This sends compelling alarm signals to advertisers that consider employing spam. Other more upright forms of Internet advertising however continue to evolve and grow, though TV remains the leading media type for large scale advertising. Also consumer-generated media such as podcasts, blogs and wiki’s are being used as platforms for advertising due to their suitability for focused niche advertising. This initiates a mass customization advertising trend. Technological developments are highlighted by the continued growth of video on demand (VOD) offerings. Approximately 10% of TV viewers switch over to VOD. The general public still considers advertising to be a nuisance and intrusive and hence newer technologies are also enabling people to evade advertising.

Willem:

• We can explicitly say that advertisers will (continue) to shift traditional ad spending to the Web due to increased Internet usage and better possibilities to measure the effectiveness of adds. I see you also address this in 2008, but I think it's also relevant for 2007.
• Regarding spam, we now assume that the situation in the U.S. and e.g. Europe is more or less the same. But is that true? I guess there are important differences between what's allowed in US and Europe.

2008: Further to the previous year’s laws against spam, new legislation is passed against pop-ups and other such dubious Internet advertising methods. This however does not prevent the continued growth of Internet advertising. It should be noted that there is an overload in the trend of personalized advertising over the Internet, which some believe may cause public uproar in the not-too-distant future. Due to their aggressive competition with each other, the big Internet players like Microsoft and Google are often found to be treading on thin ice regarding legal and privacy issues and hence some legal actions are being taken against them in certain countries. VOD continues to grow and current figures estimate that 35% of former TV viewers have now switched to VOD. Advertisers are eagerly seeking ways of advertising on VOD platforms, though TV advertising budgets are still significantly higher especially due to important events such as the Olympic Games. Some advertisers also begin dabbling with mobile phone advertising, though this scene is still in experimental stages and hence its long-term future is unclear. Advertising in printed media had reduced due to the decreased popularity of newspapers and magazines. This bodes well for the future of Internet and VOD advertising.

2009: As was predicted by many in the previous year, laws are drafted limiting the trade of personal data. Internet advertising however continues to grow and advertising budgets in large companies for Internet are roughly equal to those for TV/VOD and this proportion is believed to continue to remain this way during the coming years. The mass customization trend has become a key factor in Internet advertising, though the new laws set clear guidelines to advertisers on how personal data of individuals can and cannot be used. VOD has now taken over approximately 50% of the former TV market. Furthermore, broadband Internet is the de facto standard for Internet in India and China, thereby opening a potential gap for VOD services.

Willem:

• Concerning broadband internet in India/China, I mean the places outside the major cities. Currently there's only (broadband)internet in the developed regions of China/India but there are now still a lot of regions where people are very poor and where the internet is seldom available.

2010: Mobile phones essentially all have high speed Internet access, thereby making it possible for several technologies to integrate. VOD offerings can even be accessed over mobile phones, and thus mobile phone advertising also increases. Some scares of spam over mobile phone networks are dealt with strictly by authorities. Also, laws against mobile phone spam are drafted for good measure. While advertising via VOD is similar to traditional TV advertising, it is somewhat more targeted based on user preferences and is hence less intrusive and more effective.

2011: Mobile phone Internet has essentially fully merged with traditional Internet and mobile advertising is more customized than traditional advertising. Also, a trend in interactive advertising becomes more and more popular. Finally, VOD is the absolute standard for watching movies, shows and sports.

Willem (general comments:

• About interactive advertising: I know I've put it at 2011 but I think we've 2 change this (at least we've 2 add something at an earlier year). Currently we already see that certain parties are trying to do something with iTV (as part of interactive advertising). Quite difficult to predict whether or not it will be a success but I think we've to address it in 2007/2008. Besides iTV there will be other ways to make advertising more interactive. So, we need to address it
• Another issue is this: will advertisers pay consumers to look at their adds in the future? Maybe a good idea to address this as well.