Difference between revisions of "Proliferation of extremist / dictatorial regimes"

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==Enablers==
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- Fragile democracy: short track record democracies will lack proper state organizations able to prevent the accesion of extremist leaders;
 
- Precarious economic development / Poverty: Countries without a significant middle class segment where serious wealth gaps exists between the upper class and working class will always be more prone to emergence of dictators that will capitalize on support from the poor based on vain promisses for the better;
 
- Emergence of extremist parties or fundamentalist religious movements: i.e. the rise of the National Socialist party in Germany after WWI or the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1971;


==Inhibitors==
==Inhibitors==

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Inhibitors

- Democratic values. There are countries that despite being poor have strong democratic valued embedded in their culture such that an authoritarian regime would not be possible. These are normally countries that have obtained independence through big sacrifices i.e. India.

- Economic growth: As a nation develops and the standard of living increases the chances that the political system is a democracy are higher. The poor class diminishes meaning that the numbers of those to whom populist leaders prone to become dictators appeal decrease;

- Foreign intervention:If such regimes emerge and threaten the security of the world there will be international mechanisms set in motion in order to correct the situation. Of course rightfulness and selection of such interventions is a much debated subject. One major question emerges: Do the large oil importers care about the faith of people in these countries or mainly about the energy resurces there?

Paradigms

If the need for resources of more developed countries increases while extremist control of such resources by certain producing countries still exists, it is likely to see more international conflicts or bilateral controversial deals. This is would lead to a situation similar to Shell's "Scramble" energy scenario for 2050.

Experts

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