Scenario 4: Lazy Donkey

Introduction

In this scenario, the usage of location based services is low and the variety of location based services offered is also low. Location based services are therefore not very popular or widespread. We will now take a look at the events that have led to this situation and the forces that were driving this development. The following unordered driving forces have all contributed to the occurence of this scenario:

• Fossil fuel consumption
• Oil price
• Interest of users
• Health impact of mobile and wireless devices
• Quality of LBS information
• Increasing Mobility
• Growing privacy and security concerns
• War on terror
• Regulations and telecom privacy
• Advanced high tech mobile devices

Current situation(2011)

Location based services using satellite systems are limited to the military. Limited location based services are available using wireless technology and technology advanced mobile phones.

Satellite systems in China, the US, Europe and Russia are controlled by governments while wireless infrastructure is controlled by industries.

Terrorism is widespread. The war on terror has been reduced to a fight between Western and Middle East countries. This is mainly due to the escalated oil crisis and the ensuing fight for control.

Privacy of the individual is no longer possible. Laws similar to the Patriot Act have been passed and individuals can be tracked without their prior consent.

2006 - Commercial Exploitation of LBS

User interest in location based services is growing. Services such as car navigation systems have become widespread due to the cost savings in fuel and time.

Mobile devices usage has increased. Mobile devices are becoming more technology advanced. Businesses try to exploit this phenomenon by offering location based services mainly based on satellite systems and mobile devices.

Current privacy regulations allow tracking only if users have given their permission first. However there is a clause that in exceptional circumstances, permission is not required.

A war between Iran and the US and its allies is becoming more likely. The escalating oil crisis is increasing the chances of a war.

2007 - War West vs Middle East

The US and its allies attack Iran who retaliates by attacking Israel. This fuels international outrage and sides are taken: West vs Middle East. Terrorist attacks by muslim fundamentalists increase in the West.

The US declares a state of national crisis and temporarily denies civilian access to its GPS system. Existing location based systems that are dependent on this GPS system suffer as a result. Users lose trust in the quality of information and service provided by these services.

2008 - EU launches Galileo

New possibilities for location based services arise. However, the costs of these services are high because of the high associated operating costs of this satellite system. Users are not willing to pay for these services because of the lack of trust that arose during the Iran war. Only governments and the military can afford to use this new system. They gladly use it to become independent of the US GPS system and further their own efforts in the fight against terrorism. Terrorist attacks have not abated.