Difference between revisions of "Scenario Quality Ranking"

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'''Group 1'''<br>
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<Rank High>
Internet Commerce:
free internet service provision 2003 (1996)
Clear explanation in Trend and Matrix makes Scenario convincing.
 
 
<Rank Middle>
Health:
health in 2010 (1996)
Interesting contents.But relationship between driving forces and scenarios is vague to me...
 
 
<Rank Low>
Telecommunications:
telcoms 2003 (1996)
The axis for scenarios seems unreflected...
 
'''Group 2'''<br>
BEST
Human Relationships in 2015
:Reasons: Original, easy to understand, linkage between elements
Telecommunications in 2015
:Reasons: Well-researched, detailed, in places uncany in predicting future.  Signposts were good.  Crowded waters scenario especially strong.
Leisure in 2010
:Reasons: Well researched, organized and presented.
Distance Education in 2010
:Reasons: Easy to read, nice framework, it goes to the point
Branding in 2005
:Reasons: easy to understand, takes into account not only marketing concepts
Workspace in 2010
:Reasons: some parts were really good, but others not. Overall, it doesn't look like an integrated document/proposal. No conclusions.
Food Retailing in 2006
:Reasons: Focused on Alberthein in Netherlands too narrow, Difficult to read, Not very revolutionary ideas
Electronic Cash in 2010
:Reasons: Disorganized and not so clearly presented, there is no clear explanation how electronic cash can affect society.
Telecommunications in 2003
:Reasons: Not well thought out. Unclear.  Basic assumptions left unstated.  Research was very poor.  Scenarios not believable--actors did things that were illogical given the scenario laid out.
Internet in 2005
:Reasons: Unoriginal, not forward looking enough, no linkage between elements, badly organized
 
 
 
== '''Group 4 - "Group For Waikiki"'''<br> ==
 
Dear fellow strategists -- here are our picks from [http://dtn.info.nl/ Daniel Erasmus' DTN site] (go to Scenario Thinking/ Student Projects):
 
 
'''BEST IN CLASS:''' Distance Education 2011 (1996): 36 out of 40
 
'''WORST IN CLASS:''' Health in 2010 (1996): 15 out of 40
 
 
'''The eight criteria we used for evaluating the scenarios were:'''
 
'''''Content Analysis'''''
 
*Relevant use and critique of theory, academic references, literature, traditional beliefs
 
*Analysis of the issue with personal insight
 
*Discussion and logical development of arguments
 
*Quality of the section about scenarios
 
*Other options/new directions for thought for the public
 
*Synthesis of material
 
'''''Design & Gestalt'''''
 
*Aesthetics & Consistency:  Aesthetics, colors, size & font of text, choice of pictures, drawings, look & feel
 
*User friendliness: Use of a site map, working links, clear navigation directions
 
'''''Rating scale for each of the criterion'''''
 
5 = Excellent, 4 = Very good, 3 = Acceptable, 2 = Meets minimum requirements 1 = Insufficient
 
'''''Total possible score: 40'''''
 
 
'''''RANKINGS OF 10 SAMPLE SCENARIOS, LISTED BEST TO LAST'''''
 
1. Distance Education 2011 (1996): 36 out of 40 (rated by Lucia Nedelcu)
 
2. Genetic Revolution: 30 out of 40 (rated by Mari Smith)
 
3. Relationships 2020 (1997): 29 out of 40 (rated by Claudie Chaumette)
 
4. Crime 2015 (1997): 25 out of 40 (rated by Eser Torun)
 
5. Interpersonal Communication: 23 out of 40 (rated by Spencer Rosen)
 
6. Free Internet Service Provision 2003 (1996): 20 out of 40 (rated by Spencer Rosen)
 
7. Branding 2005 (1999): 19 out of 40 (rated by Eser Torun)
 
8. Leisure 2010 (1999): 19 out of 40 (rated by Mari Smith)
 
9. Internet Banking: 18 out of 40 (rated by Lucia Nedelcu)
 
10. Health in 2010 (1996): 15 out of 40 (rated by Claudie Chaumette)
 
[http://us.f1f.yahoofs.com/bc/4f83f18d/bc/Word+Attachments/ranking+of+scenarios_final.pdf?bfHsWiBBUgEW00YE DETAILED EXPLANATION OF RATINGS & WRITTEN REVIEW OF SCENARIOS]
 
 
'''Group 3'''<br>
Dear scenario-thinkers,
 
please explore our way of thinking and our results!
 
'''''Short introduction to our evaluation process:'''''
#Developing criteria catalogue for assessing scenarios: five process, three quality, three presentation criteria
#Screening all scenarios
#Chose 5 most recent ones (4 group scenarios, 1 class scenario) to analyze in depth
#Everyone of group individually assessed these 5 scenarios according to the criteria catalogue (reasoning: everyone has same starting point for discussion, increase common understanding, learning experience of group larger)
#Merging the individual results and discussing the final ranking
 
 
'''''Criteria catalogue for assessing scenarios:'''''
*Process, quality and presentation (effectiveness, efficiency and presentation)
*Weighting 40% - 40% - 20% to emphasize content over lay-out
*Please also refer to the attached picture
 
 
'''''Ranking results'''''
 
 
[[Image:Group3-Ranking.png|thumb|Description]]
 
'''''Rank 1: Genetic revolution'''''
 
*'''Process:''' Introduction is present, good/deep structured assessment of driving forces, indicators and monitoring process missing
 
*'''Quality:''' very consistent in approach, detailed argumentation
 
*'''Presentation:''' good structure and creative presentation of the scenarios
 
 
'''''Rank 2: Leisure'''''
 
*'''Process:''' reflected on indicators and implications, chosen matrix easy to understand, causal relationship scheme missing
 
*'''Quality:''' no referencing present, consistent in approach, broad mindset
 
*'''Presentation:''' no logical structure, not attractive/boring coloring
 
 
'''''Rank 3: Interpersonal communication'''''
 
*'''Process:''' no focal issues, good causal scheme but no interpretation, indicators and monitoring process missing
 
*'''Quality:''' missing depth in scenarios, consistent however
 
*'''Presentation:''' well structured, nice layout but cold be more entertaining, no consistency in the language
 
 
'''''Rank 4: Childhood Freedom'''''
 
*'''Process:''' bad introduction, missing steps, over structured in depth of driving forces (image as a whole not present, confusing), choice of axes mysterious
 
*'''Quality:''' reasoning and in-depth analysis lacking, consistency good, good wrapping of ideas
 
*'''Presentation:''' original, logistics are hidden
 
 
'''''Rank 5: Information Society (Class project)'''''
 
*'''Process:''' no introduction, no focal issues, no reasoning behind thinking, no transparency, no causality
 
*'''Quality:''' no consistency, no sufficient depth of argumentation
 
*'''Presentation:''' no structure, no consistency in lay-out
 
 
'''''Lessons learned and take-away from this exercise'''''
 
*follow the right procedures and steps
*ensure clear links between the steps
*warning indicators + monitoring process have to be present
*transparency in reasoning
*goal: balance between structure & creativity
*balance between conciseness (focus/summary) and depth (and NOT volume)
*Define structure of presentation beforehand
*Properly select colors and layout for readability and usability
*'''The class presentation was the worst one due to lack of consistency and structure. It is therefore very important for the whole class that we have coordinating role to ensure a successful project'''
 
 
 
'''Group 5'''<br>
We are:
Edo Avraham, Lars Eriksen, Kentaro Kodaka, Taro Honda, Daniel Perez Whitaker
[http://dtn.info.nl/ScenarioThinking/StudentProjects.htm Why couldn't ANYONE post this link!]
 
Rank 2
 
telcoms 2003 (1996)
 
Pros: Well coverage on PEST.
-Technology and industry insights such as extinction of AT&T / IP phone
-Concentration of gorvernmental regulations which is the largest constrain to telecom companies
Cons:
-Should have been strucutured and mentioned step by step (ex. driving forces / uncertanties)
-Should have researched more on IP phone services and its superiority so that conclusion may be different.
 
Rank 1
 
telecommunications 2015 (1997)
 
Pros: Well researched on PEST exhaustively
Cons:
-Should have been strucutured and mentioned step by step (ex. driving forces / uncertanties)
-Less exhaustive coverage on PEST in scenario planning phase if seeing 2015, especially seamless services by mobile and ISP providers should have been mentioned.
 
'''Group 6'''<br>

Latest revision as of 06:14, 2 June 2010

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