Difference between revisions of "Oil Production"

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* Oil prices are set by supply and demand in the world market, and by oil trading on global financial exchanges.
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* The world consumes approximately 85 million barrels of oil per day. Proven (P95) and probable reserves (P50) are approx. 1,200 million barrels. This means that at current production rate oil will suffice for 38 years.
* IEA's newest estimate of depletion of global conventional reserves is 6.7% annualy. This means 16 years only.
* Reserves are stated by oil companies, oil exporting countries and importers. All have incentive to overstate.
* Three years ago, the OPEC countries had spare production capacity of 6 million barrels per day that could be brought online in times of emergency to keep prices down. This spare capacity is down to 2 million barrels per day—nearly, all in Saudi Arabia. In coming years demand growth rates will severely test producers’ capacity to bring enough new oil online.
* It generally takes seven to ten years to move from oil discovery to production.
* New discoveries in 2009 are close to 10 billion barrels as result of exploration investments made earlier in the decade.
* The total costs for drilling tripled between 1990 and 2004.
* OPEC covers now only 30-35% of global oil production.
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* Non-conventional oil means tar sands, oil shale, and heavy oil that cannot be pumped the way conventional crude oil can.
* The process is technically difficult and more expensive than conventional crude oil production. Nonetheless, production costs for tar sands oil have fallen to around $15 per barrel, making them a viable fuel source at today’s barrel prices (around $70). Similarly, Shell Oil has found a way to extract oil from oil shale that is competitive at world prices of $30/barrel.
* Authorities familiar with the resources believe that the world's ultimate reserves of unconventional oil are several times as large as those of conventional oil and will be highly profitable for companies as a result of higher prices in the 21st century. So these will be energy bridges turning back the peak oil clock.
* According to Rühl, BP’s chief economist, the main limitations for oil availability are "above ground" and are to be found in the availability of staff, expertise, technology, investment security, money and last but not least in global warming. The oil question is about price and not the basic availability. His views are shared by Daniel Yergin of CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), who added that the recent high price phase might add to a future demise of the oil industry - not of lack of resources or an apocalyptic shock but the timely and smooth setup of alternatives
 
 
 
 
 
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[http://www.responsiblenergy.org/oil.asp, "Citizens' Alliance for Resposible Energy"]
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[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil, "Wikipedia - Peak Oil"]
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[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:OPEC_declared_reserves_1980-now_EIA.svg, "Chart - OPEC declared reserves"]
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[http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/business/energy-environment/24oil.html, "New York Times - Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries"]
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[http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/ "International Energy Agency - World Energy Outlook"]
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[http://eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html, "Energy Information Administration - International Energy Outlook"]

Latest revision as of 00:53, 2 June 2010

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