Difference between revisions of "Scenario 2- The power of the crowds"
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* hyper-connectivity<br><br> | * hyper-connectivity<br><br> | ||
<b>2030 - State of the world</b><br><br> | <b>2030 - State of the world</b><br><br> | ||
2030 looks as a promising year. Who would have thought that | 2030 looks as a promising year. Who would have thought that human's capability of communicating will evolve till such a level? People's opinions are so aggregated that nowadays the public has the power. Actually so much power, that since some years ago, continuously increasing public pressure coupled with local climate disasters, made governments to make some agreement on emissions reduction policies. Therefore the <b>climate talk is today less of a talk and more of an action.</b> | ||
Having a look at technology, most products | |||
What pushed us towards here | <b>What pushed us towards here? </b><br> | ||
In 2010 | We are in this word of communication with no frontier mainly dues to:<br> | ||
1. standardization of cloud computing (2020) and<br> | |||
2. standardization of gadgets(2015). <br> | |||
These two events harnessed humans capabilities of communication in groups. In 2010 groups did not have the tools to take advantage of their collective intelligence (see research answers). Nowadays we managed to maximize the collective intelligence of a group - no matter how big. When is comes to communication the word of the day is <b>hyper-connectivity</b> Almost everybody is one click away. <br>[[File:customers.jpg|600px]] <br><br> | |||
This interconnectivity increased the power of users and the way they communicate. It modified not just peer to peer communication but also <b>the way public communicates with companies or governments</b>. These changes offered more power than before to the demand side of the systems. Consumers are more able than ever to express their desires. Desiring a product and <b>having no producer to fulfill your need is an exception</b>. Nowadays the 100 high-end consumers from Germany who desire flighting bikes can easily get in touch with the 200 people in Japan with the same desire and with the 50 in Finland and so on. Consumers have the power to dictate! <br><br> | This interconnectivity increased the power of users and the way they communicate. It modified not just peer to peer communication but also <b>the way public communicates with companies or governments</b>. These changes offered more power than before to the demand side of the systems. Consumers are more able than ever to express their desires. Desiring a product and <b>having no producer to fulfill your need is an exception</b>. Nowadays the 100 high-end consumers from Germany who desire flighting bikes can easily get in touch with the 200 people in Japan with the same desire and with the 50 in Finland and so on. Consumers have the power to dictate! <br><br> | ||
At this point in time <b>companies | At this point in time <b>companies' need for market research is minimal</b>. The public is able to send the message by himself. Given this change, companies needed to change their business models also. In this new economy, <b>the winners</b> are the companies who manage to be <b>the fastest in grabbing what markets desire</b>. | ||
In the same time companies learned about the necessity of a more organized innovation process (2015). Nowadays the companies <b>focus more than ever on the implementation </b>side of innovations and less on the supply side of new ideas. Because new ideas come from everywhere. Digital tools allow companies to easily filter the valuable ones from the less valuable. <b> Having the gold idea is not the competitive advantage anymore. Being fast at implementation is the key. </b> <br><br> | |||
==2010 - 2015== | ==2010 - 2015== | ||
[[File:Innovation_tactics_in_2010.jpg|400px|right | [[File:Innovation_tactics_in_2010.jpg|400px|right]]<u>Companies</u> discovered that they <b>cannot manage the idea generation process</b>. Plenty of surveys (McKinsey, IBM CEO) indicated that most companies believed that innovation performance would improve with a better pipeline of big ideas (57%), yet only a third of these managers thought they had a good balance between idea generation and effective execution. The ideas trap was alive and well! More and more companies realized that <b>gold ideas</b> upon which competitor capitalized,<b> were once in their baskets</b> also, but everybody inside their company was busy doing something else: tasks from their job description.<br><br> | ||
<u>Consumers</u> had ever changing desires, but slow in implementation and in gathering market data, <b>companies did not manage to satisfy all these desires</b>. | |||
More and more companies | At that time we were still ''playing'' with ever changing mobile gadgets and web tools: some supported efficient communication and made life more efficient, some failed to do so. Google Wave [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_wave]- though it promised to become the ultimate collaboration tool, it <b>did not manage to make complexity simple</b>. | ||
<b>We are still in the search for a simpler life.</b> | |||
==2015 - 2020== | ==2015 - 2020== | ||
This is the time slot when Interoperability on the Web and standardization of software widgets was achieved. The standardization of widgets basically allowed everyone to write widgets, and for those widgets to work on all our phones and all OS. | This is the time slot when Interoperability on the Web and standardization of software widgets was achieved. The standardization of widgets basically allowed everyone to write widgets, and for those widgets to work on all our phones and all OS. [[File:connected.gif|200px|right|]]<br> | ||
Instead of working on widget standards that break the Web, people standardised a fully Web-compatible Mobile 2.0 architecture that delivered the same rich, personal functionality, but added back the seamless mashability of ever-changing people and their ever-changing stuff.<br><br> | Instead of working on widget standards that break the Web, people standardised a fully Web-compatible Mobile 2.0 architecture that delivered the same rich, personal functionality, but added back the seamless mashability of ever-changing people and their ever-changing stuff.<br><br> | ||
What happened is that the U-Web project became reality. What seemed like a dream in 2010 was finally pushed by a bunch of smart engineers from Boston. | What happened is that the U-Web [http://the-u-web.org/] project became reality. What seemed like a dream in 2010 was finally pushed by a bunch of smart engineers from Boston. This got <u>users</u> so much closer to efficient group communication<br><br> | ||
On the other hand, <u>on the corporate side</u>, at the end of 2015 it became obvious that <b>innovation is not just sexy but necessary</b>. to be seen in an increasing number of companies </b> - bigger and smaller once. <br><br> | |||
There is also a wave of new <b> DIY entrepreneurs </b> (see [http://fora.tv/2010/06/14/WIREDs_Chris_Anderson_Atoms_Are_the_New_Bits#Chris_Anderson_From_DIY_Invention_to_Entrepreneurship]). | |||
==2020 - 2025== | ==2020 - 2025== | ||
[[File:cloud.jpg|300px|right|]]<br><br>Cloud Computing Interoperability Manifesto which started in 2010 finally became successful The big players CCIF, CloudCamp, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Microsoft and the IEEE-ISTO finally united. At the beginning of the 20s | [[File:cloud.jpg|300px|right|]]<br><br>Cloud Computing Interoperability Manifesto [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Cloud_Computing_Manifesto] which started in 2010 finally became successful The big players CCIF, CloudCamp, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Microsoft and the IEEE-ISTO finally united. At the beginning of the 20s they agreed to enable participants, from individuals and companies, both large and small, to be able to contribute to and use the results of broad community collaboration. <b</b> It | ||
This was the key of breaking complexity and making it simple. The world wide web is more fluid than ever. <u>Users</u> do not need to have different accounts on different platforms. The world wide web allows them to communicate both socially and professionally without trapping them in different social networks.<br><br> | |||
This new type of communication makes groups more powerful. This is the point when those 100 high-end consumers from Germany who desire flighting bikes easily find the 200 people in Japan with the same desire. The <b>economy</b> starts to be one which really <b>is consumer-centered</b>. And not because companies decide so, but because consumers decided: they had the tools to get together.<br><br> | |||
On the <u>companies</u> play ground rules of the game change. Given the fact that opportunities are out in the open, with different publics having the tolls to put their desires on the table, the game starts being about speed. The wave of DIY [http://fora.tv/2010/06/14/WIREDs_Chris_Anderson_Atoms_Are_the_New_Bits#Chris_Anderson_From_DIY_Invention_to_Entrepreneurship] entrepreneurs which started in the previous years is more and more active. The game being about speed they are not afraid to play against the big sharks. It is easier than ever for small entrepreneurs to reach a certain market, to assess it's dimensions and to reach it with the final product. | |||
==2025 - 2030== | ==2025 - 2030== | ||
, <u>consumers</u>, is stronger and stronger. They shout out their desires and the companies who want to have access to their pockets must be fast in fulfilling those wishes. <u>Companies</u>, small and big, know that alone, as standalone businesses, they cannot be fast enough. <br>[[File:Networks.jpg|600px]]<br> | |||
<i><b><font color="green">Old ways dye even faster than before =><br> | <i><b><font color="green">Old ways dye even faster than before =><br> | ||
companies need to learn to be FAST</font></b></i><br> | companies need to learn to be FAST</font></b></i><br><br> | ||
For these reason if ideas generation can be managed by each company the implementation part must be | For these reason if ideas generation can be managed by each company the implementation part must be in a team. This is how the new corporation got born - which is a network of old corporations. In 2010 companies had issues with implementation inside their companies only (see 2010-2015), however nowadays companies must be fast in learning aggregated implementation of innovation. The winers are the ones who learn it the fastest. <br>[[file:Piranha_fish.jpg|150px|right]] | ||
Corporate ventures, partnership and open innovation are the main tools companies use to implement innovation. The Google 2010 innovation style is of no use for companies. Employees need to spend time in implementing perfectly instead of creating new ideas.<br><br> | Corporate ventures, partnership and open innovation are the main tools companies use to implement innovation. The Google 2010 innovation style is of no use for companies (20% of the time to generate new ideas). Employees need to spend time in implementing perfectly instead of creating new ideas. | ||
The business playground is very active - big networks (the new corporation model) play against <i> new born fast small networks.</i> Will the big sharks buy the small fishes? They would but the small guys are motivated and they learned the rules of the game are like piranha [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piranha]. <br><br> | |||
For sure <b>consumers are the winners</b> in this scenario. On the reverse side however the need for speed creates <b> labour exploitation</b>. | |||
[[Future of Innovation Main Page]] | [[Future of Innovation Main Page]] | ||