Difference between revisions of "India"
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[[File:India flag.gif|thumb| Indian Flag|300px]] | |||
= Affects of Climate Change on India = | = Affects of Climate Change on India = | ||
[[File:India topo.jpg|thumb| Indian Topography |300px]] | |||
== Agriculture == | == Agriculture == | ||
- Agriculture and rural society would face maximum disruptions. India would possibly need a second Green Revolution. Considering a range of equilibrium climate change scenarios which project a temperature rise of 2.5oC to 4.9oC for India, it is estimated that:<br> | - Agriculture and rural society would face maximum disruptions. India would possibly need a second Green Revolution. Considering a range of equilibrium climate change scenarios which project a temperature rise of 2.5oC to 4.9oC for India, it is estimated that:<br> | ||
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== Sea Level Rise == | == Sea Level Rise == | ||
- Flooding of coastal areas and an estimated displacement of | - Flooding of coastal areas and an estimated displacement of about 20-60 million people living in Indian coasts<br> | ||
- About 35% of Bangladesh would be submerged with 1m rise in sea level causing many millions to seek refuge in India.<br> | - About 35% of Bangladesh would be submerged with 1m rise in sea level causing many millions to seek refuge in India.<br> | ||
Mass migration within India & from Bangladesh/Srilanka towards Indian mainland would cause severe congestion which Indian cities are ill-equipped to manage.<br> | Mass migration within India & from Bangladesh/Srilanka towards Indian mainland would cause severe congestion which Indian cities are ill-equipped to manage.<br> | ||
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= Indian Perspective, Policies & | = Indian Perspective, Policies & Priorities = | ||
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- India feels: better to negotiate on technology than on reduction targets <br> | - India feels: better to negotiate on technology than on reduction targets <br> | ||
- India is | - India is looking for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council.<br> | ||
- Due to meagre uranium reserves, India depends not only for technology but also fuel for advancement of its nuclear power plants.<br> | |||
- India has massive reserves of Thorium and spends considerable amounts of money on R&D to use thorium for power generation. It has technological expertise on reactors using thorium for power.<br> | |||
== India: A Unique Situation == | == India: A Unique Situation == | ||
- India is large resilient state and society having considerabe coping capacity with a stable democratic governance system.<br> | - India is large resilient state and society having considerabe coping capacity with a stable democratic governance system.<br> | ||
- Inequality within different social segments in India: <br> | - Inequality within different social segments in India: <br> | ||
1) ''Poor'' - Least equipped to handle climate change but most severly affected by consequences. They are the main drivers of the political clout as they are major voters. Very potent in swaying politicians based on their huge numbers. Convince them that climate change aversion is essetial for better quality of life and consequently they would push the state into action <br> | |||
2) ''Middle Class'' - Growing in number. Has interest in increasing economic activity and difficult too convince. Somewhat isolated from the worst effects of climate change due to its location in urban spots. <br> | |||
- NGOs/Think Tanks and Researc Institutes - Centres of execellence in a sea of mediocracity. Indian civil society lacks infrastructure to support their efforts <br> | - NGOs/Think Tanks and Researc Institutes - Centres of execellence in a sea of mediocracity. Indian civil society lacks infrastructure to support their efforts <br> | ||
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- Civil conflict - Several fault lines are present. <br> | - Civil conflict - Several fault lines are present. <br> | ||
The actual effect of these would depend on timing, size, location and management of the conflict by Indian government. <br> | |||
a) Many times the inequalities within rural-urban, employed-unemployed, commercial-labouring groups manifest as religious conflicts and tensions <br> | |||
b) Religious/cultural fault lines of politicaly active groups aligned towards various orthodox fanatics/fundamentalists like Christians/Muslims/Hindus/Sikhs etc. <br> | |||
c) Maoists/Hindu Extremists/Muslim Extremists/New groups may emerge in most affectd (poor) areas to create conflict <br> | |||
== Priorities of the Indian Government == | |||
1/ Economic growth <br> | |||
2/ Poverty Alleviation <br> | |||
3/ National Security - Fundamentalist Muslims and Pakistan are major threat for India. Interplay and dynamics between China-Pakistan cooperation could affect Indian stand on climate change negotiations. India competes with China and is threatened by increasng prescence of Chineese military in the region (China plans to establish military bases in Bangladesh & Myanmaar). China maintains claim to some north-eastern Indian states (e.g. Arunachal Pradesh). | |||
==India's perspective on Copenhagen == | ==India's perspective on Copenhagen == | ||
India accounts for 5% of the current global GHG emissions. Even if this was reduced to zero, it would hardly have any effect on averting climate change. Unless other countries those responsible for much higher levels of emissions, such as the U.S. and China, with 20% each, were to achieve much more drastic reductions, the threat to India from Climate Change would remain undiminished. The glaciers would still melt and there would still be more frequent droughts or unseasonal rain. The Indian islands and low-lying coastal plains, would still get submerged due to sea-level rise. | |||
India sees this as a classic external economy dilemma: what I invest cannot be directly related to the outcome. It is equally possible that I benefit from what others invest in, since I stand to enjoy a global public good being created. Therefore, in dealing with cross-cutting, global issues such as Climate Change, it becomes necessary to align the external economies being generated with a burden-sharing arrangement that makes economic sense to the countries participating in the multilateral regime. | |||
India feels that nothing that China said or did at Copenhagen represented any noteworthy change in its stand on Climate issues and yet it was projected as the villain which stood in the way of a meaningful outcome. India believes, this had to do less with Climate Change and more with the disappointed expectations of the US and the . | |||
It appears to Indian negotiators that there was no willingness on the part of the , nor there was any offer either technology or financial resources to enable India to scale up its own ambitious efforts to deal with Climate Change. Therefore, India maintains that if it is being in any case tarred with the same brush as China was, does it not make sense for us to work with China | |||
= Mechanics Within India = | |||
[[File:Systems India.JPG|800px|thumb|centre|The Indian System]] | |||
= Facts And Figures = | = Facts And Figures = | ||
- Population: around 1.121 billion people in 2006 (2nd biggest worldwide)<br> | |||
- Area (coastal districts ) approx 379,610 Km2, <br> | - Area (coastal districts ) approx 379,610 Km2, <br> | ||
- Based on world bank estimates, number of poor people living under $1.25 day was about 456 million in 2005.<br> | |||
- A 1m Sea Level Rise would displace approx 7.1 million people, about 5,764 Km2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road<br> | - A 1m Sea Level Rise would displace approx 7.1 million people, about 5,764 Km2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road<br> | ||
- Sea level rise would be highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast of West Bengal <br> | - Sea level rise would be highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast of West Bengal <br> | ||
- 8% of world's estimated coal reserves are in India <br> | - 8% of world's estimated coal reserves are in India <br> | ||
- 67% of world's estimated thorium reserves are in India <br> | - 67% of world's estimated thorium reserves are in India <br> | ||
- Total Energy Consumption in India (2001E): 12.8 quadrillion Btu* (3.2% of world total energy consumption) <br> | |||
- Energy-Related Carbon Emissions (2001E): 251.3 million metric tons of carbon (3.8% of world total carbon emissions) <br> | |||
- Per Capita Energy Consumption (2001E): 12.6 million Btu (vs U.S. value of 341.8 million Btu) <br> | |||
- Sectoral Share of Energy Consumption (1998E): Industrial (41.0%), Transportation (9.5%), Residential (47.3%), Commercial (2.2%) <br> | |||
- Sectoral Share of Carbon Emissions (1998E): Industrial (67.3%), Transportation (15.6%), Residential (13.7%), Commercial (3.3%) <br> | |||
- Fuel Share of Energy Consumption (2001E): Coal (50.9%), Oil (34.4%), Natural Gas (6.5%) <br> | |||
- Fuel Share of Carbon Emissions (2001E): Coal (64.5%), Oil (30.3%), Natural Gas (5.2%)<br> | |||
= Resources = | = Resources = | ||
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13. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf<br> | 13. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf<br> | ||
14. http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2010.pdf<br> | 14. http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2010.pdf<br> | ||
15. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/India/Full.html<br> | |||
16. http://www.earthtrendsdelivered.org/energy_consumption_by_sector_in_2007_china_usa_india_japan_russia_eu-27<br> | |||
17. http://www.indianchild.com/india_environmental_overview.htm<br> | |||
18. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf23.html<br> | |||
19. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/India-to-become-worlds-fastest-growing-economy-by-2013-15-Morgan-Stanley/articleshow/6322333.cms<br> | |||
= Last Updated By = | |||
- Rachit Tayal | |||