Difference between revisions of "Scenario 1: Dead Duck"
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* Advanced high tech mobile devices | * Advanced high tech mobile devices | ||
===2011 - Current | ===2011 - Current Situation=== | ||
Location based services using satellite systems are limited to the military. Limited location based services are available using wireless technology and technology advanced mobile phones. | Location based services using satellite systems are limited to the military. Limited location based services are available using wireless technology and technology advanced mobile phones. | ||
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Privacy of the individual is no longer possible. Laws similar to the Patriot Act have been passed and individuals can be tracked without their prior consent. | Privacy of the individual is no longer possible. Laws similar to the Patriot Act have been passed and individuals can be tracked without their prior consent. | ||
===2006 - Commercial Exploitation of LBS === | ===2006 - Commercial Exploitation of LBS === | ||
User interest in location based services is growing. Services such as car navigation systems have become widespread due to the cost savings in fuel and time. | User interest in location based services is growing. Services such as car navigation systems have become widespread due to the cost savings in fuel and time. | ||
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The US declares a state of national crisis and temporarily denies civilian access to its GPS system. Citizens are tracked without their prior consent. Existing location based systems that are dependent on this GPS system suffer as a result. Users lose trust in the quality of information and service provided by these services. | The US declares a state of national crisis and temporarily denies civilian access to its GPS system. Citizens are tracked without their prior consent. Existing location based systems that are dependent on this GPS system suffer as a result. Users lose trust in the quality of information and service provided by these services. | ||
===2008 | ===2008 - EU Launches Galileo === | ||
New possibilities for location based services arise. However, the costs of these services are high because of the high associated operating costs of this satellite system. Users are not willing to pay for these services because of the lack of trust that arose during the Iran war. Only governments and the military can afford to use this new system. They gladly use it to become independent of the US GPS system and further their own efforts in the fight against terrorism. Terrorist attacks have not abated. | New possibilities for location based services arise. However, the costs of these services are high because of the high associated operating costs of this satellite system. Users are not willing to pay for these services because of the lack of trust that arose during the Iran war. Only governments and the military can afford to use this new system. They gladly use it to become independent of the US GPS system and further their own efforts in the fight against terrorism. Terrorist attacks have not abated. | ||
Latest revision as of 13:30, 9 May 2006
Introduction
In this scenario, the usage of location based services is low and the variety of location based services offered is also low. Location based services are therefore not very popular or widespread. We will now take a look at the events that have led to this situation and the forces that were driving this development. The following unordered driving forces have all contributed to the occurence of this scenario:
- Fossil fuel consumption
- Oil price
- Interest of users
- Health impact of mobile and wireless devices
- Quality of LBS information
- Increasing Mobility
- Growing privacy and security concerns
- War on terror
- Regulations and telecom privacy
- Advanced high tech mobile devices
2011 - Current Situation
Location based services using satellite systems are limited to the military. Limited location based services are available using wireless technology and technology advanced mobile phones.
Satellite systems in China, the US, Europe and Russia are controlled by governments while wireless infrastructure is controlled by industries.
Terrorism is widespread. The war on terror has been reduced to a fight between Western and Middle East countries. This is mainly due to the escalated oil crisis and the ensuing fight for control.
Privacy of the individual is no longer possible. Laws similar to the Patriot Act have been passed and individuals can be tracked without their prior consent.
2006 - Commercial Exploitation of LBS
User interest in location based services is growing. Services such as car navigation systems have become widespread due to the cost savings in fuel and time.
Mobile devices usage has increased. Mobile devices are becoming more technology advanced. Businesses try to exploit this phenomenon by offering location based services mainly based on satellite systems and mobile devices.
Current privacy regulations allow tracking only if users have given their permission first. However there is a clause that in exceptional circumstances, permission is not required.
A war between Iran and the US and its allies is becoming more likely. The escalating oil crisis is increasing the chances of a war.
2007 - War West vs Middle East
The US and its allies attack Iran who retaliates by attacking Israel. This fuels international outrage and sides are taken: West vs Middle East. Terrorist attacks by muslim fundamentalists increase in the West.
The US declares a state of national crisis and temporarily denies civilian access to its GPS system. Citizens are tracked without their prior consent. Existing location based systems that are dependent on this GPS system suffer as a result. Users lose trust in the quality of information and service provided by these services.
2008 - EU Launches Galileo
New possibilities for location based services arise. However, the costs of these services are high because of the high associated operating costs of this satellite system. Users are not willing to pay for these services because of the lack of trust that arose during the Iran war. Only governments and the military can afford to use this new system. They gladly use it to become independent of the US GPS system and further their own efforts in the fight against terrorism. Terrorist attacks have not abated.
2009 - Wireless LBS
Wireless technology and widespread use of advanced mobile phone technology e.g. 3G enables companies to begin offering location based services based on wireless technology as opposed to satellite systems. This limits the types of services that are possible because of accuracy issues as well as the availability of wireless infrastructure which still have not been solved. However, using wireless systems provides users with better quality of service and information as the wireless infrastructure is controlled by the industry.
2010 - Privacy Issues
Wireless location based services are still not widely used as privacy is still an issue. The oil crisis has escalated the "war on terror" and governments still have the power to track citizens without their prior consent. Misuse of this has led to loss of trust and an increasing need to protect one's privacy as much as possible.