Technological Development

Description

Technology has changed our life drastically all through the ages. It made possible for us to do something which was impossible in the past.　Can we expect that technology will solve every problem in terms of sustainability? Hybrid engine cars are expected to reduce CO2 emission significantly, and electronic products become more and more energy efficient. Further research about carbon capture and storage is progressing as well. Advance in technology will definitely effect positively on sustainability. However, Carbon Mitigation Initiative states that we cannot rely on only technological advancement, and need to adopt other ways such as renewable energies and new regulation in order to decrease CO2 emission. According to International Energy Agency, following technological development is expected.

Supply Side

• CCS fossil-fuel power generation
• Nuclear power plants
• Onshore and offshore wind
• Biomass IGCC & co-combustion
• Photovoltaic systems
• Concentrating solar power
• Coal: integrated-gasification combined cycle
• Coal: ultra-supercritical
• 2nd generation biofuels

Demand Side

• Energy efficiency in buildings and appliances
• Heat pumps
• Solar space and water heating
• Energy efficiency in transport
• Electric and plug-in vehicles
• H2 fuel cell vehicles
• CCS industry, H2 and fuel transformation
• Industrial motor systems

High technology have become available for many people and given us a life of affluent. Children in poor families could have got laptop which is regarded as a cause of educational and income gap due to One Laptop per Child project. Indian car manufacturing company, Tata motors, introduced Nano last year. This will help low income people to enjoy better life. In contrast, increase in the number of car will accelerate global warming, and we have to think all these complicated issues as a whole.

Description of key technologies

Efficient Vehicles

Due to a research by the Stabilization Wedges, around 2Gt-C of CO2 is emitted by 2 billion light-duty vehicles. Car makers are working on reducing CO2 emissions partly because local regulations are becoming more and more strict, and partly because this technological development is regarded as the key factor of future competition. As an innovative style of fuel efficiency, Toyota introduced a hybrid car Prius in 1997. Other rivals also introduced fuel efficient cars and increased R&D investment in order to get initiative in the new business environment. Recently, Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault Nissan made a commitment that it will introduce new Electric Vehicles in 2011, and sell 100,000 by 2016 in Israel and Denmark. Toyota and other rival makers also announced that they would introduce advanced type of hybrid, plug-in hybrid in 2010.

• Issues of electric cars

  • Charging station: In order to run long distance, boost carging stations must be promoted.
  • Lithium-ion battery: The downsides of traditional lithium-ion batteries include short cycle lives (hundreds to a few thousand charge cycles) and significant degradation with age. Estimated reserve of lithium is around 11 million ton, and most of them are distributed in South America.

Energy Efficiency in Residence

Within a variety of reformable points, lighting has significantly large room to improve energy efficiency. According to a research by IEA, lighting systems represents approximately 8% of world CO2 emissions. Especially, low energy efficiency can be found in residential sector due to the important role of incandescent lamps, which are characterised by very low energy efficiency. Substituting incandescent lamps with Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL) can be an effective means to improve this low evergy efficiency as CFL consume 1/4th to 1/5th of the energy used by incandescent light bulbs. However, an obstacle is the initial cost to introduce CFL. Although the price of CFL is decreasing, it is still more expensive than traditional incandescent lamps. A number of countries are working to remove this obstacle and implemented policies.

Carbon Capture and Storage

CO2 can be captured from a variety of anthropogenic sources such as power plants and large industrial plants and then compressed and transported to a storage site. This technology was used as a way to collect oil efficiently (Enhanced Oil Recovery, EOR). Although oceans and geological reservoirs can be potential storage options, there are considerable uncertainties about the science of ocean storage and geological of CO2 is regarded as a more promising storage option. According to researches by IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, storage capacity for the main geological storage reservoirs is estimated as follows.

• Storage options (Gt CO2)

  • Depleted gas fields: 690
  • Depleted oil fields/CO2-EOR: 120
  • Deep saline aquifers : 400 - 10 000
  • Unminable coal seams: 40

Enablers

1. People’s interest

Favorable business condition can call risk money which expects higher return to companies. This risk money help companies increase R&D expense.

2. Favorable business condition

Favorable business condition can call risk money which expects higher return to companies. This risk money help companies increase R&D expense.

3. Education

In order to supply efficient researchers, higher education is required.

4. Policy

International sustainable schemes such as the Kyoto scheme would promote the technology development. Subsidy policy for green technology and green products would also be a strong source of the development. Challenging reduction targets which may be determined in COP15 in December 2009 would be an another spark for the advanced technology.

Inhibitors

1. People’s attitude to seek for higher profit

This attitude will develop technology, but it can drive technology to a wrong way. If we seek really efficient and profitable technology, it may not be sustainable technology. Nuclear power station is efficient to generate electric, and reduce CO2 emission, but this technology is controversial. A similar characteristic of technology may be invented.

2. Recession

Slowdown in economic growth will accompany with reduction of R&D expense, and cancel of research projects. Recession also makes it difficult for governments to enact subsidy policy for green technology.

3. Oil price A decrease in oil price would lower the motivation of people and corporations to utilize alternative energy and consequently, it could set back the technology development plan.

4. Policy Passive political attitudes toward a sustainable society would be an obstacle in advancing the technology.

Paradigms

Technology can be the biggest wedge to stop global warming.

Timing

Due to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CO2 emissions must be reduced by 50% to 85% by 2050. In order to achieve this target, not only greater energy efficiency, but also all possible measures including renewables, nuclear power, and CO2 capture and storage must be deployed. United Nation Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009, COP15, where new target reductions for each country and the post Kyoto schemes after 2012 will be determined would also be a key event.

Experts

• International Energy Agency
• IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme

Reference

Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies

http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/stabwedge.htm

BARRIERS TO TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION: THE CASE OF COMPACT FLUORESCENT LAMPS

http://www.iea.org/textbase/papers/2008/cd_energy_efficiency_policy/4-Lighting/4-fluorescent.pdf

One Laptop per child

http://laptop.org/en/index.shtml

Tata Nano

http://tatanano.inservices.tatamotors.com/tatamotors/