Risk/change avoiding

Introduction

It's for sure that the future of mobility will change, but what if this change doesn't have effect on our daily life or if we don't want to change. The current giants have complete power on the fossil fuels, so if they don't want to change because of the declining revenue or large investments. The innovation is stuck and also the investment/adaptation of new technologies.

Transportation

People will always demand mobility, not only for work but also entertainment. Because of the growing (world) population, a solution has to be found, this can be on the basis of new technology but in a risk avoiding environment, people will resist towards change. This results into an society, which keeps using the ways of transportation as we know it know, public and private transportation. These two types become more and more important in the daily life. Because of the growth in population, people have to find alternatives to reach their destination, highways become crowded and taxes will rise to get people into the public transportation. The public transportation becomes more attractive but not in a way that keeps people from taking their own car, because of the distances and waiting time (which will grow because of the increased population overtime). Private transportation will have the same share of mobility, people use the car for small trips and going to work. Overall no change in the way people travel is seen, but governments try to get people into more environmental aware vehicles and ways of transportation. But because of the risk avoiding mentality of people and companies no radical changes will be made during the next years.

Technology

Technology is an important factor on the ways of transportation, scientist are constantly developing new technologies to power cars in additional ways. These technologies are developed as prototypes and will be taken into production on a small basis. But because of the risk avoiding mentality these technologies won't get a foot on the ground, oil companies see declining profit and high investments to keep up with the new technologies, so they will choose to remain on gasoline as long as possible. Also the use of new technologies has a change onto the way people use the car, alternative fuels will result into a new car and new types of refueling. It is known that people are stuck on old habits so it will be hard to change the whole infrastructure towards a new system. Besides the infrastructural changes, the new technology will also demand a new car, some people don't have the money to change, so they will keep as long as they could onto the old technology. New technologies will be used, it has to because the fact of exhausted fossil fuels, but these new technologies must be on the basis of alternative fuels that comply with the current (gasoline)standard.

Economy

The economy will rise but just small bits at the time, in the first 5 years, the economy will still be in a recession and will only grow with small bits at the time because of the lack of trust.

Edge-cities vs Teleworking

People don't trust each other and avoid the risk is possible. Therefor teleworking will decline in popularity. Less organizations will use this because of security reasons and it's more save to do stuff at work. Companies will still grow more and more and edge-cities will grow and grow. New governmental rules will be created. With these rules highways will be doubled in driving space but not in real ground space. And over the highways some environmental green skyscrapers will be build. This means that the building need some technology to get power from wind and sun. Because the skyscrapers will be build on top of the highway, some filters will be placed to reduce the emission. The problem is that no company wants to invest in such an expensive building. Public transportation companies are trying to create some highspeed roads from city to city and from city to edge-city. But this is more as an experiment and not many people will use it because they want to drive themselves, they want to be in control. The highspeed bus from connexxion will become a total flop because nobody will use it.

Traffic

Because of the rising amount of skyscrapers and the downwards popularity of teleworking, the roads become more crowded. Therefor the government will make some rules to drive faster on the highways which will reduce the time that you need to spend on the road and therefor reduce the traffic jams just a bit. Unfortunately This is not enough and the traffic jams will rise while time passes.