Difference between revisions of "The Future of TV"
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==Paradigms:== | ==Paradigms:== | ||
With the development of personal computer and Internet, lots of people think that TV will be less used and finally replaced. But we can consider about it in another way that TV can be facilitated and supported by computer and Internet such as the Web-TV or TV can be integrated with computer or other new technologies that it will play a more important role in people's life. | |||
==Experts:== | ==Experts:== | ||
Revision as of 10:38, 13 March 2005
Description:
TV is not a new thing to most of the people now. But with the development and prevalence of computer and Internet, whether TV will still exist and benefits people or it will gradually disappear comes into discussion. In my opinion, TV will keep on playing an important role at least in the future 15 years. It is the driving force that drives the development of "Global Village".
Enablers:
- The market for home-based TV is over twice as large as that of home-based computing (Kerckhove, D.)
- Unlike computers, TV is undeniably "user-friendly".
1）The largest TV screen is 102 inch while the largest computer screen is only about 30 inch. That's why most people would like to watch movie by TV.
- The largest TV (1)
- The largest TV (2)
- Apple 30-inch Cinema Display (1)
- Apple 30-inch Cinema Display (2)
2）The video image displayed in RM or VCD format is not so good as TV.
3) Most TV nowadays have interfaces with DVD or VCD machine.
- Not all the districts in the world have Internet. Because set Internet needs modems,telephone or ADSL lines, but TV's network has been built more widely. (The coverage density of TV in China has been over 90% while the world's highest broadband connection rate in Korea is about 20% of its population)
- The average price of TV is cheaper than computer and it is still getting cheaper and cheaper.
- Emerging Web-TV concept. For example, CWTV offers the first worldwide Web-TV media platform. It broke throught the limit of time, space and language and provides wonderful TV programs in 24 hours everyday.
Inhibitors:
- With the Economic of scale and rapid development of computer technology, the cost is lower and the capability is better.
- Internet extends all over the world that maybe it will be wider than TV network.
- Intelligent computer is developing.
- Faster life style. The speed of people's life is faster than ever before, they will have enough time to sit in front of the TV to wait for certain program.
- The information given by TV is passive, while more and more people prefer to get information actively.
Paradigms:
With the development of personal computer and Internet, lots of people think that TV will be less used and finally replaced. But we can consider about it in another way that TV can be facilitated and supported by computer and Internet such as the Web-TV or TV can be integrated with computer or other new technologies that it will play a more important role in people's life.
Experts:
United Nations US Department of Health and Human Services
Timing:
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is around an 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.