Difference between revisions of "Future of Mobility in Netherlands 2030"
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[[File:traffic.jpg|300px|right]] | |||
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= | =Team Members= | ||
Imelia Bonahan <br> | Imelia Bonahan <br> | ||
Pieter Cusell <br> | Pieter Cusell <br> | ||
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Mert Cakar <br> | Mert Cakar <br> | ||
= | =Introduction= | ||
During the past decade, Netherlands has faced a significant increase in mobility. Research show that this increase is caused mainly by the increase in number of cars. Today, more than 200 billion kilometers are traveled each year. The biggest portion of mobility comes from commuting activity, especially from house to office. In the past 10 years, commuting traffic has increased by approximately 10%. This condition has caused a traffic congestion problem in some parts of Netherlands. the future of mobility. Taking into account several factors and driving forces, three possible scenarios for the future of mobility can be drawn. Through these scenarios, various stakeholders can reflect on what action to be taken in order to avoid the rapidly escalating traffic problems. <br> | |||
== | =Scenarios= | ||
==Scenario Tree== | |||
==''' | [[File:Scenario_tree_mobility.jpg|650px|]] | ||
==Scenario Stories== | |||
*[[Business As Usual]]<br> | |||
*[[One For All]]<br> | |||
*[[Orange Revolution]]<br> | |||
==Timelines== | |||
<gallery> | |||
Image:Time_line_Business_as_usual.jpg|''Business as Usual'' | |||
Image:Time_line_One_for_All.jpg|''One for All'' | |||
Image:Time_line_Orange_Revolution.jpg|''Orange Revolution'' | |||
</gallery> | |||
==Systems Diagram== | |||
[[File:Systems_diagram_mobility_final.jpg|800px|]] | |||
=Driving Forces= | |||
1. Mert - [[Longer home to work travel distances]]<br> | |||
2. Mert - [[Increase in rate of car ownership ]]<br> | |||
3. Vishal Kapoor--[[Increase in environmental awareness]]<br> | |||
4. Vishal Kapoor--[[Better public Transport]]<br> | |||
5. Imelia - [[Increase requirement in efficiency]]<br> | |||
6. Imelia - [[Increase in quality life requirement]]<br> | |||
7. Vikas Rajgarhia--[[Reduction in travel time in cars]]<br> | |||
8. Vikas Rajgarhia--[[Utilization of unconventional powered cars]]<br> | |||
9. Pieter - [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_societal_costs_of_mobility Increase of societal costs of mobility]<br> | |||
10. Pieter - [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increasing_impact_of_advance_technologies_on_mobility Increasing impact of advance technologies on mobility]<br> | |||
11. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php?title=Shift_to_Alternative_Energy_Sources&oldid=32975 Shift to Alternative Energy Sources]<br> | |||
12. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php?title=Pay-as-you-drive&oldid=14244 Pay-as-you-drive] <br> | |||
13. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_increasing_effect_of_the_development_of_technology_on_the_global_economy The increasing effect of the development of technology on the global economy]<br> | |||
14. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php?title=Reducing_IT-infrastructure_cost&oldid=12828 Reducing IT-infrastructure cost]<br> | |||
15. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Urbanization_and_Social_Status Urbanization and Social Status]<br> | |||
16. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php?title=Increasing_Mobility&oldid=29722 Increasing Mobility]<br> | |||
17. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Dynamic_Mobile_Workspace Dynamic Mobile Workspace]<br> | |||
18. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php?title=Virtual_Integration&oldid=12801 Virtual Integration]<br> | |||
19. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php?title=Fossil_fuel_consumption&oldid=29164 fuel consumption]<br> | |||
20. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php?title=Global_Warming&oldid=29471 Global Warming]<br> | |||
21. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increasing_Efficiency_in_Energy_Use Increasing Efficiency in Energy Use]<br> | |||
22. [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Improvement_in_transportation_through_inventions Improvement in transportation through inventions]<br> | |||
=Research Questions= | |||
1. [[Is public transport in NL private?]]<br> | |||
2. [[What is the rate of immigration?]]<br> | |||
3. [[What is the influence of EU on policies of Dutch government?]]<br> | |||
4. [[Is office space in Netherlands saturated?]]<br> | |||
5. [[Are offices moving out of cities?]]<br> | |||
6. [[Which cities Dutch people prefer for living and working?]]<br> | |||
7. [[What are the new developments on mobility?]]<br> | |||
8. [[What are the plans of Dutch government for mobility?]]<br> | |||
9. [[What is the effect of economic growth on mobility?]]<br> | |||
10. [[What is good life for Dutch people?]]<br> | |||
11. [[What are travel habits of Dutch people?]]<br> | |||
12. [[What are new plans for public transport?]]<br> | |||
13. [[What is brick wall for Dutch mobility?]]<br> | |||
14. [[How many years do we have before hitting the brick wall?]]<br> | |||
15. [[What causes traffic congestion?]]<br> | |||
16. [[How are business interaction going to change in the future?]]<br> | |||
17. [[How are the other EU states dealing with mobility problem?]]<br> | |||
18. [[What kind of an economy does NL have?]]<br> | |||
19. [[How do Dutch people feel about this?]]<br> | |||
20. [[How will life style and value evolve in the future?]]<br> | |||
=Useful Links= | |||
*http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/verkeer-vervoer/nieuws/default.htm<br> | *http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/verkeer-vervoer/nieuws/default.htm<br> | ||
*http://www.bovagrai.info/auto/2009/8.7.html<br> | *http://www.bovagrai.info/auto/2009/8.7.html<br> | ||
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*http://www.swov.nl/rapport/Factsheets/UK/FS_Mobility.pdf<br> | *http://www.swov.nl/rapport/Factsheets/UK/FS_Mobility.pdf<br> | ||
= | =Useful videos= | ||
*http://vimeo.com/12054501<br> | *http://vimeo.com/12054501<br> | ||
*http://www.slideshare.net/f2c/citynet-herman-wagter<br> | *http://www.slideshare.net/f2c/citynet-herman-wagter<br> | ||
= | =Interview Questions= | ||
Vishal<br> | Vishal<br> | ||
1) With regards to mobility what is the key question for NL?<br> | 1) With regards to mobility what is the key question for NL?<br> | ||
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3. How fast would the mobility trend change both from the user interest and technology development readiness?<br> | 3. How fast would the mobility trend change both from the user interest and technology development readiness?<br> | ||
4. How is the user awareness and concern so far (public and bussiness community)?<br> | 4. How is the user awareness and concern so far (public and bussiness community)?<br> | ||
=Key Learning points= | |||
1.Interrelations play a very important part and are sometimes not evident, it is through constant exploring that the group can understand the driving forces | |||
2.Although divergent thinking during a scenario buildup may be incoherent, while converging on a scenario it is important to have coherence. | |||