Difference between revisions of "The Waiting Game"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Line 19: Line 19:
2008 - 2010
2008 - 2010


· Microsoft is hesitant in joining the SaaS bandwagon for enterprise software and continues to develop and market stand alone software solutions. In part because of reduced revenues which it can achieve using this model.
* Microsoft is hesitant in joining the SaaS bandwagon for enterprise software and continues to develop and market stand alone software solutions. In part because of reduced revenues which it can achieve using this model.
· The proliferation of on demand software increases the demand for higher productivity from the employee.  The integration of ERP, CRM, HR and Accounting software in one SaaS suite means that every action of an employee can be calculated into a monetary figure.  
* The proliferation of on demand software increases the demand for higher productivity from the employee.  The integration of ERP, CRM, HR and Accounting software in one SaaS suite means that every action of an employee can be calculated into a monetary figure.  
· Employee pay rate, bonuses and benefits are calculated based on monthly productivity reports despite strong opposition by the workforce.  
* Employee pay rate, bonuses and benefits are calculated based on monthly productivity reports despite strong opposition by the workforce.  
· On demand access to organizational software and revised remuneration criteria, drive people to blur the 9 to 5 work day mentality.   
* On demand access to organizational software and revised remuneration criteria, drive people to blur the 9 to 5 work day mentality.   
· Organizations set hiring requirements to include tangible productivity reports from previous employer.
* Organizations set hiring requirements to include tangible productivity reports from previous employer.
· Competition drives advances in technology, specifically in the knowledge management area.  Organizations wish to retain as much information as possible from their employees since the current employee is only seen as a username.  
* Competition drives advances in technology, specifically in the knowledge management area.  Organizations wish to retain as much information as possible from their employees since the current employee is only seen as a username.  




2010 - 2012
2010 - 2012
· A security breach in a data warehouse reigns panic across businesses. In Europe alone, one thousand businesses in various industries were affected by the breach.  After two months, twelve companies go bankrupt as customers refuse to deal with them.
* A security breach in a data warehouse reigns panic across businesses. In Europe alone, one thousand businesses in various industries were affected by the breach.  After two months, twelve companies go bankrupt as customers refuse to deal with them.
· European government sets tougher regulation on IT security and data protection.
* European government sets tougher regulation on IT security and data protection.
· Organizations reevaluate their IT needs and some migrate their business specific applications in house.   
* Organizations reevaluate their IT needs and some migrate their business specific applications in house.   
· Mobile operators continue to bundle their service offerings.  Organizations are able to save significant costs in exchange for longer contracts with mobile operators.   
* Mobile operators continue to bundle their service offerings.  Organizations are able to save significant costs in exchange for longer contracts with mobile operators.   


2012 – 2015  
2012 – 2015  


· Microsoft sees renewed sales as organizations migrate their IT infrastructure in house.
* Microsoft sees renewed sales as organizations migrate their IT infrastructure in house.
· Significant gains in productivity over the recent years have stagnated.  
* Significant gains in productivity over the recent years have stagnated.  
· Organizations choose hybrid approach to SaaS.  Critical applications are hosted in house.   
· Organizations choose hybrid approach to SaaS.  Critical applications are hosted in house.   
· Knowledge capital value will be a requirement for stock listing in Europe
* Knowledge capital value will be a requirement for stock listing in Europe
· Mergers across SaaS software vendors.
* Mergers across SaaS software vendors.


===The Waiting Game===
===The Waiting Game===


There is a crisis.  After twenty years, the international agreement to reduce the emission of green house gases has expired.  Interim studies have shown that no positive and significant environmental effects were achieved by the Kyoto protocol.  The European Union has spent over one hundred billion euros and was the most outspoken proponent of this initiative.  Studies released by NASA show the steadily increasing temperature of the sun is the primary reason for the melting of the ice caps and the global warming phenomenon.  With hard data in hand, scientists around the world concede the ineffectiveness of the protocol.  The European Space Agency launches BrightStarI satellite towards the sun to obtain more conclusive results.  Europe is once again playing catch up.
2006 – 2008


The protocol did have positive aspects.  The billions spent were on green parks, eco friendly buildings, sound transportation infrastructure, and a public trained in energy conservation. In 2009, Europe faces the most critical challenge.  A collapsing ice cap near Greenland produces an underwater wave comparable to a tsunami.  The New Waterway barrier in the Netherlands is breached when the four meter high waves strike. The western part of Holland along the North Sea is underwater.  Millions are displaced.
During this time period, Software as a service (SaaS) is taunted by most IT vendors as the future platform for doing business.  Companies such as Salesforce.com and NetSuite gain more customers as they show off impressive ROI results from their current subscribers. Exact, Best and Microsoft release online versions of their accounting software aimed at the small and medium size enterprises.  Initial subscriptions in Europe show high interest due to low initial investment costs and increased number of entrepreneurships. SaaS wins over major corporations.  Companies realize that hosted solutions not only save costs but add value since vendors need to improve and maintain a strong offering throughout the subscription cycle.  This is an opposing view of the current stand alone software, where a vendor will only need to renew the relationship when there is a new version of the software to sell. As a result of these developments, centralized computing is once again becoming the mainstream model as organizations utilize SaaS and embrace thin client computing.


Public workspaces are supported by technological convergence of mobile operators around the world.  Vodaphone acquires Verizon Wireless in the United States.  UMTS II standard is rolled out in Europe as a safer alternative to the current UMTS.  With no significant costs for the changes, the thirty billion investment is saved.  Nokia and Sony Ericcson release handsets, which rival the capabilities of laptop computers.  The abundant network bandwidth allows for video phone conversations to be the norm.  Teleco operators slash prices to gain customers in a stagnant European market.
The European mobile handset market is highly saturated.  This in turn drives handset manufacturers to constantly introduce new features in order to increase the customer base.  On the average, the white collar worker owns two handsets.  To add to this, mobile phone manufacturers have not been able to agree on standards to support.  This ranges from the network protocol to operating software.   


The European Union fails to arrive at an agreement for a unified workforce.   Individual member governments set their own laws governing the employment of cheaper eastern workers. With pressure from the public, no new labor legislation limiting worker rights is passed.  European businesses become very uncompetitive as their ability to quickly adapt to market changes is negatively affected by labor laws.  Major companies set a employment freeze.  Contract based employment becomes the norm. 
Employee productivity is slipping as organizations migrate to the new business model of software as a service.  Faced with increased competition, each provider offers proprietary solutions with customizable service level agreements.  Contracts for these services are signed for a period of at least one year as software companies want to be sure that their investment is realized.  On another front, the European Union fails to arrive at an agreement for a unified workforce. Individual member governments set their own laws governing the employment of cheaper eastern workers.  


Businesses push for labor market reform.  European parliament is too busy dealing with issues of unity and the labor situation remains the same.  Companies introduce new business models.  The technology is ready for complete virtual organizations to exist.  The headquarters of a company is only a mailbox.  Software as a service allows for virtual organizations to operate without any infrastructure.  Meetings take place virtually.


With all of the technology ready, Europeans are not able to adjust to the changing demands of business.  The current lifestyle interferes with the realities of virtual organizations. However, the younger generation is the driver for change.  English language education is rolled out starting in kinder garden in all European member states.  The Dutch embrace the virtual workspace model from the onset.  Faced with a catastrophic disaster, the government operates very efficiently to restore the economy and improve the quality of life.   Will it take a disaster in all of Europe for changes to take place?
2008 – 2010
 
Organizations are stressing importance of capturing the knowledge of their employees.  Central storage of information for all divisions of the company, make it possible to visualize trends and forecast for the future with more accuracy. Microsoft is hesitant in joining the SaaS bandwagon for enterprise software and continues to develop and market stand alone software solutions. This is in part because of reduced revenues which it can achieve using this model. 
 
The proliferation of on demand software increases the demand for higher productivity from the employee.  The integration of ERP, CRM, HR and Accounting software in one SaaS suite means that almost every action of an employee can be calculated into a monetary figure. Employee pay rate, bonuses and benefits are calculated based on monthly productivity reports despite strong opposition by the workforce.
On demand access to organizational software and revised remuneration criteria, drive people to blur the 9 to 5 work day mentality. Organizations set hiring requirements to include tangible productivity reports from previous employer.  During this period the competition continues to drive advances in technology, specifically in the knowledge management area.  Organizations wish to retain as much information as possible from their employees.
 
 
2010 - 2012
 
A security breach in a data warehouse reigns panic across businesses. In Europe alone, one thousand businesses in various industries were affected by the breach.  After two months, twelve companies go bankrupt as customers refuse to deal with them.  This is the result of incredible growth in this sector.  Software companies neglected security concerns in order to add functionalities and meet and exceed delivery times to stay competitive.
 
The European government sets tougher regulation on IT security and data protection.  As one requirement, organizations need to reevaluate their IT policies and governance structure and add tangible measures to enforce them.  Some organizations migrate their business specific applications in house.  The telecom operators continue to bundle their service offerings in order to provide their clients with diverse features.  Organizations are able to save significant costs in exchange for longer contracts with operators.  This however does not add considerable value as the bundles often consist of seldom used features and increase complexity.
 
2012 – 2015
 
Microsoft sees renewed sales as organizations migrate their IT infrastructure in house. The software giant’s Live initiative has evolved with enterprise needs in mind.  Organizations are able to choose a hybrid approach to software as a service which increases security and confidence in the system.  Significant gains in productivity over the recent years have stagnated.  Stock markets around Europe set new requirements for inclusion.  Public companies in certain industries will need to include their knowledge capital as an asset.
 
Due to the lower growth rates, SaaS vendors enter a merger and acquisition period.  This time however, it is not based on innovative functionality or synergies between companies. It is purely for market share.  As a result only four major software vendors remain.

Revision as of 13:07, 15 May 2006

Back to the workplace homepage

Conceptual Overview

20060513 Scenario3 Jasper Odijk & Sander vd Belt.gif

Timeline Developments

2006 – 2008

  • Software as a service (SaaS) is taunted by most IT vendors as the future platform for doing business.
  • Exact, Best and Microsoft release online versions of their accounting software aimed at the small and medium size enterprises. Initial subscriptions in Europe show high interest due to low initial investment costs and increased number of entrepreneurships.
  • SaaS wins over major corporations. Companies realize that hosted solutions not only save costs but add value since vendors need to improve and maintain a strong offering throughout the subscription cycle. This is an opposing view of the current stand alone software, where a vendor will only need to renew the relationship when there is a new version of the software to sell.
  • Centralized computing is once again becoming the mainstream model as organizations utilize SaaS and embrace thin client computing.
  • The European mobile handset is highly saturated. This in turn drives handset manufacturers to constantly introduce new features. The white collar worker on the average owns two handsets.
  • Employee productivity is slipping as organizations slowly migrate to the new business model. Faced with increased competition, each provider offers proprietary solutions with customizable Service Level Agreements.
  • The European Union fails to arrive at an agreement for a unified workforce. Individual member governments set their own laws governing the employment of * Organizations are stressing importance on capturing the knowledge of their employees. Central storage of information for all divisions of the company, make it possible to visualize trends and forecast for the future with more accuracy.


2008 - 2010

  • Microsoft is hesitant in joining the SaaS bandwagon for enterprise software and continues to develop and market stand alone software solutions. In part because of reduced revenues which it can achieve using this model.
  • The proliferation of on demand software increases the demand for higher productivity from the employee. The integration of ERP, CRM, HR and Accounting software in one SaaS suite means that every action of an employee can be calculated into a monetary figure.
  • Employee pay rate, bonuses and benefits are calculated based on monthly productivity reports despite strong opposition by the workforce.
  • On demand access to organizational software and revised remuneration criteria, drive people to blur the 9 to 5 work day mentality.
  • Organizations set hiring requirements to include tangible productivity reports from previous employer.
  • Competition drives advances in technology, specifically in the knowledge management area. Organizations wish to retain as much information as possible from their employees since the current employee is only seen as a username.


2010 - 2012

  • A security breach in a data warehouse reigns panic across businesses. In Europe alone, one thousand businesses in various industries were affected by the breach. After two months, twelve companies go bankrupt as customers refuse to deal with them.
  • European government sets tougher regulation on IT security and data protection.
  • Organizations reevaluate their IT needs and some migrate their business specific applications in house.
  • Mobile operators continue to bundle their service offerings. Organizations are able to save significant costs in exchange for longer contracts with mobile operators.

2012 – 2015

  • Microsoft sees renewed sales as organizations migrate their IT infrastructure in house.
  • Significant gains in productivity over the recent years have stagnated.

· Organizations choose hybrid approach to SaaS. Critical applications are hosted in house.

  • Knowledge capital value will be a requirement for stock listing in Europe
  • Mergers across SaaS software vendors.

The Waiting Game

2006 – 2008

During this time period, Software as a service (SaaS) is taunted by most IT vendors as the future platform for doing business. Companies such as Salesforce.com and NetSuite gain more customers as they show off impressive ROI results from their current subscribers. Exact, Best and Microsoft release online versions of their accounting software aimed at the small and medium size enterprises. Initial subscriptions in Europe show high interest due to low initial investment costs and increased number of entrepreneurships. SaaS wins over major corporations. Companies realize that hosted solutions not only save costs but add value since vendors need to improve and maintain a strong offering throughout the subscription cycle. This is an opposing view of the current stand alone software, where a vendor will only need to renew the relationship when there is a new version of the software to sell. As a result of these developments, centralized computing is once again becoming the mainstream model as organizations utilize SaaS and embrace thin client computing.

The European mobile handset market is highly saturated. This in turn drives handset manufacturers to constantly introduce new features in order to increase the customer base. On the average, the white collar worker owns two handsets. To add to this, mobile phone manufacturers have not been able to agree on standards to support. This ranges from the network protocol to operating software.

Employee productivity is slipping as organizations migrate to the new business model of software as a service. Faced with increased competition, each provider offers proprietary solutions with customizable service level agreements. Contracts for these services are signed for a period of at least one year as software companies want to be sure that their investment is realized. On another front, the European Union fails to arrive at an agreement for a unified workforce. Individual member governments set their own laws governing the employment of cheaper eastern workers.


2008 – 2010

Organizations are stressing importance of capturing the knowledge of their employees. Central storage of information for all divisions of the company, make it possible to visualize trends and forecast for the future with more accuracy. Microsoft is hesitant in joining the SaaS bandwagon for enterprise software and continues to develop and market stand alone software solutions. This is in part because of reduced revenues which it can achieve using this model.

The proliferation of on demand software increases the demand for higher productivity from the employee. The integration of ERP, CRM, HR and Accounting software in one SaaS suite means that almost every action of an employee can be calculated into a monetary figure. Employee pay rate, bonuses and benefits are calculated based on monthly productivity reports despite strong opposition by the workforce. On demand access to organizational software and revised remuneration criteria, drive people to blur the 9 to 5 work day mentality. Organizations set hiring requirements to include tangible productivity reports from previous employer. During this period the competition continues to drive advances in technology, specifically in the knowledge management area. Organizations wish to retain as much information as possible from their employees.


2010 - 2012

A security breach in a data warehouse reigns panic across businesses. In Europe alone, one thousand businesses in various industries were affected by the breach. After two months, twelve companies go bankrupt as customers refuse to deal with them. This is the result of incredible growth in this sector. Software companies neglected security concerns in order to add functionalities and meet and exceed delivery times to stay competitive.

The European government sets tougher regulation on IT security and data protection. As one requirement, organizations need to reevaluate their IT policies and governance structure and add tangible measures to enforce them. Some organizations migrate their business specific applications in house. The telecom operators continue to bundle their service offerings in order to provide their clients with diverse features. Organizations are able to save significant costs in exchange for longer contracts with operators. This however does not add considerable value as the bundles often consist of seldom used features and increase complexity.

2012 – 2015

Microsoft sees renewed sales as organizations migrate their IT infrastructure in house. The software giant’s Live initiative has evolved with enterprise needs in mind. Organizations are able to choose a hybrid approach to software as a service which increases security and confidence in the system. Significant gains in productivity over the recent years have stagnated. Stock markets around Europe set new requirements for inclusion. Public companies in certain industries will need to include their knowledge capital as an asset.

Due to the lower growth rates, SaaS vendors enter a merger and acquisition period. This time however, it is not based on innovative functionality or synergies between companies. It is purely for market share. As a result only four major software vendors remain.

Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Waiting_Game&oldid=17469"