Difference between revisions of "Peak Oil"

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* "Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply" (Wikipedia)
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* Many predicition for Peak Oil neglect to consider non-conventional sources.
* Most resources cannot be fully eploited using current technology. Usually only around 30% of a resource is extracted.
* "In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode" (Savinar).
* The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) predicted that Peak Oil (including non-conventional sources) will occur in 2010.
* Kenneth S. Deffeyes predicted Peak oil occured at the end of 2005.
* Most reserves are inlfated and are actually resources. They are not yet accessable or available for production with current technology.
* Peak Oil is not about running out but about not having enough supply to meet demand.
* Conservative estimates say that once Peak Oil is reached an expected reduction of 3% p.a. of production can be expected; Andrew Gould, CEO of Schlumberger, thinks that 8% is more relaistic.
* The 1972 embargo which resulted in a decline of 5% of production caused oil prices to quadruple.
* Global oil production increased by 0.4% in 2008 to 81.8 million barrels per day.
* Proved reserves at the end of 2008 were 1.258 trillion barrels of conventional oil, or 1.408 including oil sands.
* If production stays flat and there are no new reserves then the current reserves will last 47 years.
 
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[http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ Matt Savinar, Life After the Oil Crash]
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[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil Wikipedia: Peak Oil]
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[http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events-08-10.html Kenneth S. Deffeyes - Beyond Oil]
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[http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2009_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2009.pdf BP - Statistical Review of World Energy]

Revision as of 11:14, 31 May 2010

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