Difference between revisions of "The future of the global economy in 2015"

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== Introduction ==
This page has moved here:
<br>
This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 3 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br>
''The future of the global economy in 2015''<br><br>


The members of Group 3 are:<br>
[[The future of the global economy in 2020]]
* Peter Groen
* Wendi Mennen
* Maarten Post
* Harry Schoots
* Eric Verbeek
 
==Research Documentation==
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/ which contains a link to an <b>Economist</b> article to get us started: Analysis: The Economist, Sep 06, 2005 The perfect storm.<br><br>
 
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_Future_of_the_Global_Village_in_2020 which contains a scenario of last years students.<br><br>
 
http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html is the homepage of the <b>National Intelligence Councel</b>. Mapping the Global future is a useful report.<br><br>
 
http://www.millenniumassessment.org is the homepage of the <b>Millenium Ecosystem Assessment</b>. Latest research of the MA states that environmental concerns increase opportunities and challenges for business that ultimately might influence the global economy.<br><br>
 
http://t21.ca contains a selection of world global trends on different aspects based on many sources. http://t21.ca/economic/index.htm lists the economic key findings.<br><br>
 
The <b>Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)</b> performed a scenario analysis on the economic future of Europe, downloadable from http://www.cpb.nl/eng/econ/lange_termijn/recente_studies.html<br>Try also this report on Globalisation and the Global Environment: four quantitative scenarios: http://www.cpb.nl/nl/general/org/homepages/aml/gitage_si.pdf<br><br>
 
The <b>OECD</b> published a study on the future of the global economy: The Future of Global Economy: Towards a long boom? http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/0/35394025.pdf<br><br>
 
The CIA publishes facts of every country and region in the world. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html<br><br>
 
 
==Research Questions==
Note to group: please add your research questions below.<br><br>
 
'''ECONOMY'''<br>
Asia<br>
* What is relative GDP to world economy?
* Which countries drive the regional economy?
* What are the trade balances of the major economies in region <br>
* Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)
 
Middle East<br>
* What is relative GDP to world economy?
* Which countries drive the regional economy?
* What are the trade balances of the major economies in region <br>
* Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)
 
Europe (incl E Eu & Russia)
* What is relative GDP to world economy?
* Which countries drive the regional economy?
* What are the trade balances of the major economies in region <br>
* Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV
<br>
Africa<br>
* What is relative GDP to world economy?
* Which countries drive the regional economy?
* What are the trade balances of the major economies in region <br>
* Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)
<br>
North America <br>
* What is relative GDP to world economy?
* Which countries drive the regional economy?
* What are the trade balances of the major economies in region <br>
* Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV
 
<br>
South America<br>
* What is relative GDP to world economy?
* Which countries drive the regional economy?
* What are the trade balances of the major economies in region <br>
* Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)<br>
 
Global<br>
* What are the trade balances between of the important economies? What is the size and trend in global trade?<br>
* What are the resource constraints with respect to economy? (in terms of natural resources)<br>
* What is the strength of the American Dollar compared to the Euro, Yen, Guan,...? Is it declining of increasing in the past 10 years? <br>
<br>
* What other forms of exchange (except) money are used or can be used?
In the article http://www.ode.nl/article.php?aID=4160 the following exchange forms are mentioned: Communities building Temples in Bali, Elderly Care in Japan, Health insurance companies 'pay' for healthy behahiour, frequent flyer programs and other customer programs.<br>
On the site http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/barter.html links are given of all sorts of other forms of trade without using money.<br>
Statistics on barter in 2004: http://www.irta.com/Page.asp?Script=56
 
'''Politics'''<br>
* What will be the role of the Central Banks (ECB, FED)to the economy? (in terms of 'mission statements')<br>
* What will be the role of the WTO and UN to the economy? (in terms of 'mission statements')<br>
* What will be the role of the NGOs to the economy?
* What will the effect be of global terrorism on the economy?
* How will the (in)stability of the Middle-Eastern states influence the global economy and the relation of nations?<br>
* What will be the effect of the European Union on the global economy (if any)?<br>
* What are the blocks of power and what was the past development?
* What is the global military spending in relation to the global development aid?
 
 
'''Society'''<br>
* What are the effects of the ageing population in Europe and North America to the economy? <br>
* How sustainable is the current social security level and health care per region?
* What is the effect of increasing education levels on the economy of developing regions?
 
'''Environmental'''<br>
* What are alternative energy sources and what is the speed of development?
* What are the scarce resources?
* What is the effect of climate change on the global economy?
* What are the effects of mobility on the environment?
 
'''Technology and business'''<br>
* How will the development of ICT increase the access possibilities to markets?
* What are the effects of off shoring production work by rich countries to low wage countries, and what is the trend?
* What is the growth rate of E-commerce in the world?
* How long does it take the OPEC countries to double their refinery capacity?
* What is the effect of the oil prices on the economy <br>
* What are the effects of the reducing energy supply on the global economy?

Latest revision as of 13:23, 11 December 2005

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The future of the global economy in 2020

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