|
|
(9 intermediate revisions by 7 users not shown) |
Line 6: |
Line 6: |
|
| |
|
| '''Group 1''' | | '''Group 1''' |
| Scenario in progress: [[The future of the Western-European society in 2025]]<br> | | Scenario in progress: [[The future of the Lowlands in 2025]]<br> |
| [[The future of the Western-European society in 2020]]
| |
| Petrick Pap - ESTJ<br> | | Petrick Pap - ESTJ<br> |
| Marije Bockholts - ENFP<br> | | Marije - ENFP<br> |
| Harold Doorenbos - ESTJ<br> | | Harold Doorenbos - ESTJ<br> |
| Michael Torfs - INTP<br> | | Michael Torfs - INTP<br> |
| Christine Pans - ENTP<br>
| | Chr. P. - ENTP<br> |
|
| |
|
| '''Group2''' | | '''Group2''' |
| | Scenario in progress:[[The Future of Hospitals in the Netherlands in 2015]]<br> |
| Coen Van Paassen ENFJ<br> | | Coen Van Paassen ENFJ<br> |
| Jeffrey Sweeney ENTP<br> | | Jeffrey Sweeney ENTP<br> |
Line 20: |
Line 20: |
| Gerben Hagenaars ENTP<br> | | Gerben Hagenaars ENTP<br> |
| Anton Koonstra?<br> | | Anton Koonstra?<br> |
| Memo | | |
| To Daniel Erasmus / RSM EMBA 2005 Scenario Page
| |
| From Group 2: Gerben Hagenaars, Ton Jonker, Anton Koonstra, Coen
| |
| van Paassen, Jeffrey Sweeney
| |
| Date 15 september 2005
| |
| Subject Scenario definition Group 2
| |
| Background:
| |
| Medical cost and demand in healthcare are swelling. An intensifying dissatisfaction among
| |
| patients, government officials, insurers, employers, clinicians and healthcare executives is
| |
| noticeable. The soaring prices paid to treat the growing volumes of demanding, aging
| |
| patients are prompting payers to search for more efficient ways of treatment and care.
| |
| Next to that the government in Holland has introduced the new healthcare payment
| |
| system with a new insurance system and diagnosis treatment combinations. The main
| |
| aim of this transition is the development from a budget oriented system to a more market
| |
| oriented health care system. The belief is that a market oriented system will create more
| |
| incentives for efficiency, quality and innovation.
| |
| Many hospitals in the Netherlands have to withstand those forces and the severe capital
| |
| crunch they create. As many of our group have a certain affinity with the healthcare sector
| |
| (from different angles: Insurer, pharmaceutical, hospital and client perspective) we
| |
| formulated the following scenario definition.
| |
| Scenario definition:
| |
| ‘The future of hospitals in the Netherlands in 2020’
| |
| Main driving forces:
| |
| There are a few driving forces (PWC, 1999) which create the severe capital crunch the
| |
| hospitals in The Netherlands are getting in to.
| |
| #1: Empowered patients: ‘An empowered consumerate creates impatient patients’
| |
| Scenario definition Group 2 2
| |
| Consumers are getting older (aging population)
| |
| Consumers are more informed (internet) want their own healthcare (‘I want it my
| |
| way’)
| |
| Consumerism creates contradictions (more informed and healthy people versus
| |
| obese)
| |
| Consumerism breeds branding of hospitals and individual doctors and creates the
| |
| want for more private hospitals in the Netherlands;
| |
| Empowered employers will demand better healthcare for their workers.
| |
| #2: The impact of E-health on the healthcare business;
| |
| E-health will be used for transactions between suppliers, other providers, payers,
| |
| regulators and patients;
| |
| E-health will be used for information for patients and healthcare workers and will
| |
| be used as a marketing and branding tool for the hospitals;
| |
| E-health will be used for interaction between with providers and intermediaries.
| |
| #3:The shift from cure to prevention due to new technologies like genomics and biotech
| |
| advances
| |
| Genomics will open markets for diagnostic testing, preventive medicine, follow up
| |
| treatments and even support services such as lifestyle counselling.
| |
| Life sciences and information technology will fuse into biotechnical discoveries in
| |
| the decade ahead, restrained only by the financial purse strings of government
| |
| agencies (like NWO), private foundations, pharmaceutical companies and informal
| |
| investors.
| |
| #4: The impact of the new healthcare financing system in the Netherlands
| |
| The new (privatized) healthcare system will have it’s impact on the amount of
| |
| services, the patients, the healthcare insurers, the intermediaries, the suppliers like
| |
| pharmaceutical companies and the hospitals;
| |
| The impact of the new market oriented financing system with the diagnosis
| |
| treatment combinations.
| |
| #5: Finally a driver we want to include in our scenario’s is the future scarcity of labor in the
| |
| Netherlands
| |
| The aging population will have it’s impact on the health care sector. It will be
| |
| growing. At this moment about 300.000 people are working in the health care
| |
| sector. But will there be the estimated necessary 600.000 workers in the future?
| |
| Methodology:
| |
| So far, we have identified four plausible drivers. In the further development of our project
| |
| we will have to ‘dig into the facts’. We will do this by a thourough literature study. Gather
| |
| the facts and figures and substantiate on our findings this far.
| |
| Secondly, our intention is to have some in-depth interviews with some opinion leaders in
| |
| the field of hospital care, farmaceutics and insurance. We wil speak with them about their
| |
| expectations, and will try to verify our findings.
| |
| These two angles (literature study and interviews) will be our solid academical ground in
| |
| defining our scenario’s and the strategic possibilities as a result of the scenario’s we will
| |
| try to define for this project.
| |
| References:
| |
| PricewaterhouseCoopers Healthcast 2010 – smaller world, bigger expectations, 1999
| |
| PricewaterhouseCoopers HealtCast Tactics: A blueprint for the future, 2002
| |
| | |
| '''Group 3'''<br> | | '''Group 3'''<br> |
| Scenario in progress: [[The future of the global economy in 2015]]<br> | | Scenario in progress: [[The future of the global economy in 2020]]<br> |
| Eric Verbeek ENTJ<br> | | Eric Verbeek ENTJ<br> |
| Harry Schoots ESTP<br> | | Harry Schoots ESTP<br> |
Line 103: |
Line 30: |
|
| |
|
| '''Group 4'''<br> | | '''Group 4'''<br> |
| Scenario in progress: [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Application in 2015]]<br><br> | | Scenario in progress: [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015]]<br><br> |
| Frans Verheij ESTJ<br> | | Frans Verheij ESTJ<br> |
| Patrick Leers ENTP<br> | | Patrick Leers ENTP<br> |
Line 111: |
Line 38: |
|
| |
|
| '''Group 5''' | | '''Group 5''' |
| Scenario in progress: [[The future of communication in 2020]]<br> | | Scenario in progress: [[The future of communication in 2015]]<br> |
|
| |
|
| Erik Lousberg ESTP <br> | | Erik Lousberg ESTP <br> |
| Rolando Ranauro ENTP <br> | | Rolando Ranauro ENTP <br> |
| Giuseppe Bruni ENTP <br> | | Giuseppe Bruni ENTP <br> |
| Jeroen Plink ?? <br> | | Jeroen Plink ESTJ <br> |
| Graham King I... <br> | | Graham King I... <br> |
|
| |
|