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| '''Group 1''' | | '''Group 1''' |
| Scenario in progress: [[The future of the Western-European society in 2020]]<br> | | Scenario in progress: [[The future of the Lowlands in 2025]]<br> |
| Petrick Pap - ESTJ<br> | | Petrick Pap - ESTJ<br> |
| Marije Bockholts - ENFP<br> | | Marije - ENFP<br> |
| Harold Doorenbos - ESTJ<br> | | Harold Doorenbos - ESTJ<br> |
| Michael Torfs - INTP<br> | | Michael Torfs - INTP<br> |
| Christine Pans - ENTP<br>
| | Chr. P. - ENTP<br> |
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| '''Group2''' | | '''Group2''' |
| | Scenario in progress:[[The Future of Hospitals in the Netherlands in 2015]]<br> |
| Coen Van Paassen ENFJ<br> | | Coen Van Paassen ENFJ<br> |
| Jeffrey Sweeney ENTP<br> | | Jeffrey Sweeney ENTP<br> |
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| Gerben Hagenaars ENTP<br> | | Gerben Hagenaars ENTP<br> |
| Anton Koonstra?<br> | | Anton Koonstra?<br> |
| Memo | | |
| To Daniel Erasmus / RSM EMBA 2005 Scenario Page
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| From Group 2: Gerben Hagenaars, Ton Jonker, Anton Koonstra, Coen
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| van Paassen, Jeffrey Sweeney
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| Date 15 september 2005
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| Subject Scenario definition Group 2
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| Background:
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| Medical cost and demand in healthcare are swelling. An intensifying dissatisfaction among
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| patients, government officials, insurers, employers, clinicians and healthcare executives is
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| noticeable. The soaring prices paid to treat the growing volumes of demanding, aging
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| patients are prompting payers to search for more efficient ways of treatment and care.
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| Next to that the government in Holland has introduced the new healthcare payment
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| system with a new insurance system and diagnosis treatment combinations. The main
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| aim of this transition is the development from a budget oriented system to a more market
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| oriented health care system. The belief is that a market oriented system will create more
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| incentives for efficiency, quality and innovation.
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| Many hospitals in the Netherlands have to withstand those forces and the severe capital
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| crunch they create. As many of our group have a certain affinity with the healthcare sector
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| (from different angles: Insurer, pharmaceutical, hospital and client perspective) we
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| formulated the following scenario definition.
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| Scenario definition:
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| ‘The future of hospitals in the Netherlands in 2020’
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| Main driving forces:
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| There are a few driving forces (PWC, 1999) which create the severe capital crunch the
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| hospitals in The Netherlands are getting in to.
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| #1: Empowered patients: ‘An empowered consumerate creates impatient patients’
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| Scenario definition Group 2 2
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| Consumers are getting older (aging population)
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| Consumers are more informed (internet) want their own healthcare (‘I want it my
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| way’)
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| Consumerism creates contradictions (more informed and healthy people versus
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| obese)
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| Consumerism breeds branding of hospitals and individual doctors and creates the
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| want for more private hospitals in the Netherlands;
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| Empowered employers will demand better healthcare for their workers.
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| #2: The impact of E-health on the healthcare business;
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| E-health will be used for transactions between suppliers, other providers, payers,
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| regulators and patients;
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| E-health will be used for information for patients and healthcare workers and will
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| be used as a marketing and branding tool for the hospitals;
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| E-health will be used for interaction between with providers and intermediaries.
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| #3:The shift from cure to prevention due to new technologies like genomics and biotech
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| advances
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| Genomics will open markets for diagnostic testing, preventive medicine, follow up
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| treatments and even support services such as lifestyle counselling.
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| Life sciences and information technology will fuse into biotechnical discoveries in
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| the decade ahead, restrained only by the financial purse strings of government
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| agencies (like NWO), private foundations, pharmaceutical companies and informal
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| investors.
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| #4: The impact of the new healthcare financing system in the Netherlands
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| The new (privatized) healthcare system will have it’s impact on the amount of
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| services, the patients, the healthcare insurers, the intermediaries, the suppliers like
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| pharmaceutical companies and the hospitals;
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| The impact of the new market oriented financing system with the diagnosis
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| treatment combinations.
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| #5: Finally a driver we want to include in our scenario’s is the future scarcity of labor in the
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| Netherlands
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| The aging population will have it’s impact on the health care sector. It will be
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| growing. At this moment about 300.000 people are working in the health care
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| sector. But will there be the estimated necessary 600.000 workers in the future?
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| Methodology:
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| So far, we have identified four plausible drivers. In the further development of our project
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| we will have to ‘dig into the facts’. We will do this by a thourough literature study. Gather
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| the facts and figures and substantiate on our findings this far.
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| Secondly, our intention is to have some in-depth interviews with some opinion leaders in
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| the field of hospital care, farmaceutics and insurance. We wil speak with them about their
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| expectations, and will try to verify our findings.
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| These two angles (literature study and interviews) will be our solid academical ground in
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| defining our scenario’s and the strategic possibilities as a result of the scenario’s we will
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| try to define for this project.
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| References:
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| PricewaterhouseCoopers Healthcast 2010 – smaller world, bigger expectations, 1999
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| PricewaterhouseCoopers HealtCast Tactics: A blueprint for the future, 2002
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| '''Group 3'''<br> | | '''Group 3'''<br> |
| Scenario in progress: [[The future of the global economy in 2015]]<br> | | Scenario in progress: [[The future of the global economy in 2020]]<br> |
| Eric Verbeek ENTJ<br> | | Eric Verbeek ENTJ<br> |
| Harry Schoots ESTP<br> | | Harry Schoots ESTP<br> |
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| '''Group 4'''<br> | | '''Group 4'''<br> |
| Scenario in progress: [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Application in 2015]]<br><br> | | Scenario in progress: [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015]]<br><br> |
| Frans Verheij ESTJ<br> | | Frans Verheij ESTJ<br> |
| Patrick Leers ENTP<br> | | Patrick Leers ENTP<br> |
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| '''Group 5''' | | '''Group 5''' |
| Scenario in progress: [[The future of communication in 2020]]<br> | | Scenario in progress: [[The future of communication in 2015]]<br> |
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| Erik Lousberg ESTP <br> | | Erik Lousberg ESTP <br> |
| Rolando Ranauro ENTP <br> | | Rolando Ranauro ENTP <br> |
| Giuseppe Bruni ENTP <br> | | Giuseppe Bruni ENTP <br> |
| Jeroen Plink ?? <br> | | Jeroen Plink ESTJ <br> |
| Graham King I... <br> | | Graham King I... <br> |
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