Difference between revisions of "What is Scenario Thinking?"

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[http://dtn.info.nl/ScenarioThinking/scenariocycle.pdf '''A Scenario Cycle'''] is a presentation of a full scenario cycle, from articulation of the focal issue to the way scenarios are used to change an organisation and to transform strategic uncertainties from liabilities to assets.<br>
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A sequence of steps however is not thinking process.  This cycle is simply a sketch of scenario process, rather than a thinking template.  The world is complex and complex situations require complex representation.

Revision as of 08:18, 22 August 2005

Whatisscenarios.jpg

Scenario Thinking is a way of thinking about - and anticipating the future, without pretense of being able to predict the future or being able to influence the environment in a major way. Scenario thinking always includes a number of possible future scenarios, thus preparing for many possible future events. Succesfuly used by many organizations and governments, Scenario Thinking has proven it's worth in the past thirty years.
This little introduction doesn't start to describe what Scenario Thinking really is. On this page there is room for many more, possibly contradictory, descriptions of what Scenario Thinking really is.


A Scenario Cycle is a presentation of a full scenario cycle, from articulation of the focal issue to the way scenarios are used to change an organisation and to transform strategic uncertainties from liabilities to assets.
A sequence of steps however is not thinking process. This cycle is simply a sketch of scenario process, rather than a thinking template. The world is complex and complex situations require complex representation.