The Future of Hospitals in Amsterdam in 2020

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search

MBA09 team:
Peter Hoppesteyn
Roel Kock
Piotr Ptasinski
Miranda Tjiang
Marjoleine van der Zwan

"Work under construction. In case you have any questions, additions or comments, please do not edit these pages, but you are more than welcome to contact us.'


I like the coaching session, and think you have a good command of the topic. The key challenge is now going to take the stories we talked about (and others) and put them together in NEW and interesting ways. Look at which stories you think fit well together and build the scenarios from that.
Good Luck - D

1. Too much prevention
It is 2020 and we are living in Amsterdam. The number of people living in the capital of The Netherlands stabalised at around 750.000 many years ago. However, due to globalisation, the atractiveness of the city to foreigners, and relative high number of children per person of the allochtonous population compared to the number of children of the autochtonous population there is an increadible number of nationalities living on a relative small area. Therefore, the city is vulberable for pandemies. In 2015 the Bengalese flue had a major impact on the citizens (and the economy) of Amsterdam. When the pandemy peaked, more than one-third of the citizens of Amsterdam were sick. As a reaction to this disaster, people in Amsterdam started to focus on prevention of deseases. This resulted in beter public health, because people spend more time in sports schools than ever and healthy food is readily available. The last Mac Donalds in Amsterdam closed its doors one year ago! A drawback of this focus on prevention of deseases is that it is observed that human resistance to deseases significantly reduces. In the past people got a 'cold' or a flue every few years. Most people kept working or stayed at home for a couple of days. People recovered quite quickly. Nowadays, in general people have not been ill for a long time, but when the get a flue the need extra care and many times they end up in hospitals. In fact, the vulnerabiluty of the citizens of Amsterdam for a new pandemy is extremely high. Currently the Dutch government is investigating how to deal with this new threat.

2. Abandoning collective base insurance
Demand for health care decrease, but complexity of the care increases. The poor are not insured and do not go to hospitals unless absolutely unavoidable.

3. Humans serving technology
Since 50% of the hospitals had to be demolished due to the existence extremely resistent bacteria the focus in health care shifted purely to technology. For 80% of the treatments people do not have to move to the hospitals anymore, but care is available at home. Nowadays, business around HCT (Home Care Technology) is booming as much as ICT (Information and Communication Technology) was in the late 1990's. In the hospitals that survived the wave of demolishments and in new hospitals, the annual costs for Installation Technology is as high as the costs for specialist care.

4. Solidarity within families
Shift from individualism to collectivism in Amsterdam

Research Questions:

To be added

Driving forces:

Innovation in health care
Accessibility of hospitals in Amsterdam
Aging population
Low cost of internet connections
Continuously growing demand for new medical applications
Consumer health informatics in the information age
Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases
Increasing empowerment of consumers
Increasing Neglect of the Elderly