Scenario 3: "E-pocalypse Now"
Scenario 3: E-pocalypse Now
In late 2006 a new mathematical discovery in India is made public. Combined with advancements in quantum computing, a powerful decryption algorithm is developed. The decryption technology is launched into the open and immediately infiltrates computers across the US. This technology makes all systems readable and unreliable. Financial sector and all transactions halt and information is lost and stolen. Backup files in remote locations are available but the decryption technology makes the new data unsafe. Billions of dollars vanish off of balance sheets. The panic in the US spread around the world within minutes. The US government's Computer Emergency Readiness Team (CERT), an arm of the National Cyber Security Division (NCSD) of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immediately declares a cyber-alert. All economies are in instant turmoil. A global recession hits. Internet users are requested to stop using the internet for some time to stop the spread. Consumers and businesses alike become fearful of using the internet.
NCSD collaborate with Microsoft to come up with a highly secure system that can protect systems from the new decryption technology but developing and releasing the new system takes time. In the meantime, NCSD immediately create policies that require all commercial businesses to only use closed source software that has been “officially” screened and “CERT-approved.” The NCSD regulations also only allow transactions between computers that have the NCSD-approved software installed. Consumers who want to conduct transactions online with commercial businesses must download a free version of the NCSD-approved software before proceeding. Security of the internet becomes of the utmost importance. The EU takes the opportunity to demand that the internet control be handed over to the UN instead of the US.
The financial sector rebuilds and slowly begins to recover from the disaster but the NCSD software requirement takes a toll on businesses and the US economy. Consumers without CERT-approved software are unable to conduct any kind of transactions online. A small group of backlashers try to revolt and create their own network of websites created through open source software. Proprietary software companies have had to raise prices because they must go through extensive testing and get licenses through the NCSD in order to sell their software. Businesses struggle because complying with new regulations is expensive and software prices have shot through the roof. Although regular consumers can still buy non-NCSD licensed software, the market is slow because consumers are fearful of the consequences. Consumers stop using their credit cards to purchase online and companies that rely only on the internet for transactions go bankrupt.
On the other hand, the software services industry booms because companies need professional assistance in order to ensure that they are complying with NCSD’s regulations. A market opens for NCSD regulation professionals. All software developers focus on security as the driving force of operations. Closed source and high security software dominates. Single-device software developers and web-service based applications that had previously enjoyed prosperity and were seemingly going to be the "new thing" have had to slow down and revamp their security. Security software developers innovate rapidly and the market for high-security software grows. Open source software tries to re-emerge, but the "secured software" developers are running powerful campaign on threats of internet. Fear controls the crowds, thus the development of the web 2.0 platform stagnates.
Microsoft, in collaboration with NCSD, finally releases a new operating system that is secure against the decryption technology. Companies all move to purchase the new software and Microsoft secures its seat at the number one software company for years to come. Advancements in technology spur innovation and open source and web-based applications slowly emerge again. With rapid advancements in technology and innovations in powerful security software security worries are eased but most people stick to the comfort of Microsoft.