Reservoir Dogs

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Overview

The two most important extremes that characterize this driving force is a Fragmented View of the World, where enterprises are Competing for Resources. Moreover IT shall be growing via an Inrementing/Integrating scheme of Innovation towards new technologies and paradigms.


Technological Implications

Content Delivery is the most important growth factor of IT, which creates new markets and further exploits new software capabilities. Business Intelligence, Data Mining become commodity regarding insight techniques and control is shifted towards systems rather than people. Programming techniques remain the same essentially but shifting towards Functional and Component orientation.
Outsourcing contracts in Emerging Economies will be decreasing, since cost rise. IT as a resource will be placed strategically towards operations management and leverage. R&D will continue as a universities’ prospect and shall governmental funded. Companies try to implement leaner IT technologies that would require less resources than today and will try to sustain the legacy systems. Mergers and Acquisitions shall extend further since human resources become scarcer in an aging Europe. Infrastructure is exploring fiber technologies to the maximum. Databases are sharing their data into creating a new form of web where data are served as a resource and data utilization becomes a KPI.
IT personnel become less in number therefore their salaries increase and the responsibilities is transformed from operations towards design. Customization will hand over to standardization since the IT matures and its market decreases. Digitalization of society will dramatically increase therefore the respected systems will be critical and enterprises will depend more and more to Information as a resource to create and sustain operations. Service Oriented Architecture along with ITIL will dominate the software industry as paradigm of system design and design principles. Since the globe will result into fragmented regions each will deploy own techniques and there shall be a differentiation in technology.


Time Frame

1. 2 Years
Data are getting related and interconnected creating a new global resource. From an IT perspective, database technology is going to be much more important than ever before. IT researchers must revisit database technology in light of the likely changes to the nature and volume of information. As the technologies discussed above can generate and transmit more and more data, we will need databases and technology to categorize, store, extract, and analyze information. These databases will be updated often and will need additional contextual information to describe the nature of the data.
2. 5 Years
By 2015 where data will be collected on everything (and mined for trends). IT applications will encourage people to work and entertain themselves at home. This change of venue for many activities will likely affect etiquette and social graces. Personal interaction will suffer further, as more interactions will occur with electronic devices and automated services. By 2020, traditional letter and messenger writing may be long gone, replaced by instant messaging and email.

3. 10 Years
IT industry is highly capitalizing on the emerging economies creating new opportunities and common wealth-fare. Public Sector, Media and Healthcare seem to be the new industries that reap the fruits of IT investments.
Telephony, television, cable providers, radio, personal computers, Internet access, power, day planners, and even room lighting might be bundled into one product in the home supplied by a single vendor.
Since this scenario is about a fragmented and highly competing industry, governments pursue deregulation. Thus, technology enables a great variety of new business models to emerge. There are many new players, including telecommunications companies, peer-to-peer financial services providers, processing providers. and while Internet companies are declining in number because of the commoditization of the infrastructure. Three geopolitical fragments become apparent:

  1. "Leapfrogging": in large emerging economies such as China and India, government regulation and investment in infrastructure fosters the local financial service industry, expanding access to the poor and leading to new business models that "leapfrog" over developed markets in areas such as mobile services and flexible, low-cost operating models.
  2. "Business as usual": in other mainly developed economies such as the US or European countries where innovation neither accelerates nor decelerates. There is only limited change to business models while service orientation is the standard.
  3. "Back to the past": in the remaining countries and regions, mainly in developing economies. Governments increase control over the industries but do not foster local innovation;as a result, there is little progress and sometimes even regression in the efficiency and quality of IT.


Extremes

  1. SouthEast Asian and Indian companies specifically become the major players in IT industry driving the market innovation.
  2. EU and US are investing in new technologies but the main problems (legacy, bugs, etc) remain as the critical factors of poor IT performance.
  3. Outsourcing is regionally clustered.
  4. Although society is more digitalized, B2B IT solutions are mainly suffering from the systemic drawbacks of retaining the current paradigms of IT.