RSM EMBA 2005 Class Notes

Class 1

Anthology: How --- Epistemology: What
Process: How / The way --- Content: What
In a lot of discussions in business process and content are confused.

Important in scenario thinking is the way a manager thinks, not the report.
Equally important is content.

KNOW YOUR STUFF!!

Drivers of scenario thinking:

• What are we missing?
• What don’t we know?

Workshops are needed to decide for what time period you make scenarios (1 or 2 workshops)

Complex things require complex presentation.

Story telling works, bullets don’t!

Best scenarios have high surprise and high likelihood.

Everything you do is based on assumptions of the future.

Only 2-3% of time of managers is spend on thinking about the future.

Focussing for a long time give fresh insights.

Value of scenarios is not in business as usual, because managers are capable of doing that, but in extraordinary information.