Difference between revisions of "Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants (in Lowlands)"

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==Description:==
==Description:==
Due to developments in society (ageing population, increased consumerism) and medical technology there will stay an upwards pressure to health care expenditures. Government will keep the responsibility for accessibility, quality and affordability of health care for all citizens, but it defines this role more facilitating. Liberalization means less government involvement in the health care procurement market. The health care procurement market in the Netherlands is defined as the market between sellers (hospitals) and buyers (mostly insurers, but in the future maybe also employer and individuals).
The portion of non-Western allochtones as part of the Dutch population is forecasted to increase from 10.4% (2004) to 16.6% in 2050 <br>
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This allochtone growth has historically been concentrated in Big4 cities: the relative number of allochtones in these cities increased from 36% (1995) to 43% (2004). Within these cities appr 10 % of the neighboorhoods comprises 50% of the non-western allochtones (cbp) <br>
Liberalization will lead to all kinds of new health organization models, like Health Maintenance Organizations (cooperation between insurance and hospital, e.g. USA), hospital-nursing homes combinations, but also listed hospitals. As from 2012 it will be possible for hospitals to make a profit.
Consequently, if this pattern continues, a growing concentration and segregation of non-western allochtones is to be expected in the Big4 cities. This is likely leading to a decline in ethnic integration. <br>
 
==Enablers:==
==Enablers:==
o The increase of health care cost will urge the government to introduce more efficient, market oriented systems. The current Dutch government adagio is “market where possible, and only intervene when necessary <br>
* General openness towards a multi-cultural society
o In the current budget system all capital expenditures are separately funded and guaranteed by government. As from 2012 hospitals will be fully responsible for their income and production (WTZi).<br>
* Availaility of low-cost housing for immigrants in non-black neighbourhoods <br>
o The new hospital financing system (DBC’s) makes differences between hospitals in price and quality visible. By that competition between hospitals will increase<br>
* Dutch Language courses and social training for immigrants to enable communication with non-immigrants <br>
* Legislation to prevent Asylum and economic migration (both are actually expected to decline over time) <br>
<br>
 
==Inhibitors:==
==Inhibitors:==
o The evolution of the current parliamentary democracy. Will the Dutch parliament be able to let loose, or will it intervene as it does now. <br>
* General resistance against a multicultural society (has grown between 1997 and 2003, CPB)
o The convergence of European health care market systems. Will the EU formulate a policy on health care market systems? So far, the EU has only intervened in food security, labor market and border crossing health care consumption. <br>
* Family reunions and higher birth rates of allochtones from poorer/rural areas with low education levels nad low incomes <br>
* Limited job opportunities nor training/education opportunities to grow and live beyond segregated neighbourhoods <br>
 
==Paradigms:==
==Paradigms:==
The fundamental shift in thinking is the transformation from a regulated system, like in most other European countries to a much more market oriented system in which government has much less control and market forces will drive development.
Mainly, the % of non-western allochtones in The Netherlands is expected to increase from 10.4% (2005) to 16.6% in 2050, while the % of autochtones is expected to decrease from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period (CPB). If these allochtones would settle in (concetrated areas within) the big RAndstad cities as has happened historically, and if the size of these big4 cities would remain fairly stable, this would result in an increase of non-western allochtones in these cities from 43% (2004) to c. 70% (2050) i.e. c. 55% in 2025. More than half of the big4 cities could thus be of non-western origin who would be living in segregated/cocnetrated neighbourhoods (which are prone to less social cohesion, social degeneration and increases in social nuisances).
 
==Experts:==
==Experts:==
Ministry of health (www.minvws.nl), College Bouw (www.cbz.nl), ZAio (www.ctg-zaio.nl)
CPB, CBS
 
==Timing:==
==Timing:==
Start new insurance system (zorgverzekeringswet) 1-1-2006 <br>
Non western allochtones in The Netherlands are expected to increase from 10.4% (2004) until 16.6% in 2050: autocthones are expected to decline from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period
Start new hospital financing system (DBC’s) 1-1-2005, finish 1-1-2008 <br>
 
Start liberalization construction of hospitals (WTZi) 1-1-2006, finish 2012 <br>
==Web Resources:==
==Web Resources:==
www.minvwsnl <br>
www.cpb.nl <br>
www.zorgaanzet.nl <br>
www.cbs.nl <br>
www.cbz.nl <br>
www.aivd.nl <br>
www.ctg-zaio.nl <br>

Latest revision as of 20:19, 14 December 2005

Description:

The portion of non-Western allochtones as part of the Dutch population is forecasted to increase from 10.4% (2004) to 16.6% in 2050
This allochtone growth has historically been concentrated in Big4 cities: the relative number of allochtones in these cities increased from 36% (1995) to 43% (2004). Within these cities appr 10 % of the neighboorhoods comprises 50% of the non-western allochtones (cbp)
Consequently, if this pattern continues, a growing concentration and segregation of non-western allochtones is to be expected in the Big4 cities. This is likely leading to a decline in ethnic integration.

Enablers:

  • General openness towards a multi-cultural society
  • Availaility of low-cost housing for immigrants in non-black neighbourhoods
  • Dutch Language courses and social training for immigrants to enable communication with non-immigrants
  • Legislation to prevent Asylum and economic migration (both are actually expected to decline over time)


Inhibitors:

  • General resistance against a multicultural society (has grown between 1997 and 2003, CPB)
  • Family reunions and higher birth rates of allochtones from poorer/rural areas with low education levels nad low incomes
  • Limited job opportunities nor training/education opportunities to grow and live beyond segregated neighbourhoods

Paradigms:

Mainly, the % of non-western allochtones in The Netherlands is expected to increase from 10.4% (2005) to 16.6% in 2050, while the % of autochtones is expected to decrease from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period (CPB). If these allochtones would settle in (concetrated areas within) the big RAndstad cities as has happened historically, and if the size of these big4 cities would remain fairly stable, this would result in an increase of non-western allochtones in these cities from 43% (2004) to c. 70% (2050) i.e. c. 55% in 2025. More than half of the big4 cities could thus be of non-western origin who would be living in segregated/cocnetrated neighbourhoods (which are prone to less social cohesion, social degeneration and increases in social nuisances).

Experts:

CPB, CBS

Timing:

Non western allochtones in The Netherlands are expected to increase from 10.4% (2004) until 16.6% in 2050: autocthones are expected to decline from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period

Web Resources:

www.cpb.nl
www.cbs.nl
www.aivd.nl

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