Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015

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To start our scenario process we shall look at the scope of the uncertainties, define our research questions and answer them for our next class on 26 May.

Note: A good source is also the CIA's conference on the future of North Korea done in 2001. the report is visible here

Driving Forces

Here we will list Driving Forces that are specific to the process to understand the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015+

Please remember to be specific and indicate movement (whether it is growing or declining). For Example:

 BAD - Anti-Americanism
 BETTER - Anti-Americanism in Korea
 BEST - Increase of Anti-Americanism in Korea



Nice lists of driving forces, but the instructions above expect you to develop the Driving Forces not just list them. They comprise 35% of your grade as listed below.

Groups

Political

  • The Sino-U.S. rivalry <---please read the instructions above!
  • Pax Americana <---please read the instructions above!
  • Nationalism <---please read the instructions above!

Economic

  • Globalization
  • Increasing dependency of South Korean economy on exporting - Group 4
  • More opening of South Korean economy to the world - Group 4
  • Europe and Japan began to compete effectively with the U.S - Group 2
  • As North Korea meets the limits of economice development they try to accept inter-korean Economic Cooperation - Group 2
  • The prolonged economic slump has discouraged people from moving to other residential areas - Group 2


  • 2008 Beijing Olympics in China - Group 3
  • FTA - Group 3
  • Bipolarity in wealth - Group 3
  • Economic Alignment with North Korea - Group 3

Societal

Technological

  • South Korea's tech competence is on the high skilled HR and high applied science - Group 4
  • South Korea's tech competence is on the IT & digital industry - Group 4
  • increase in availability of cheap broadband internet in ROK - Group 1
  • Stem cell technology - Group 3

Environmental

  • Materialism<---please read the instructions above!
  • Increasing relation between S.K economey and environmental issue - Group 4
  • Water Shortage - Group 3<---please read the instructions above!
  • Energy Crisis - Group 3 <---please read the instructions above!








As a reference you can look at example uncertainties,research questions, driving forces and scenarios developed on a WIKI:

LIACS Scenarios 2005

Leiden University ICT in Business Post Graduate course scenarios.

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