Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015
To start our scenario process we shall look at the scope of the uncertainties, define our research questions and answer them for our next class on 26 May.
- aSSIST 2005 Group 1 Uncertainties
- aSSIST 2005 Group 2 Uncertainties
- aSSIST 2005 Group 3 Uncertainties
- aSSIST 2005 Group 4 Uncertainties
Note: A good source is also the CIA's conference on the future of North Korea done in 2001. the report is visible here
Here we will list Driving Forces that are specific to the process to understand the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015+
Please remember to be specific and indicate movement (whether it is growing or declining). For Example:
BAD - Anti-Americanism BETTER - Anti-Americanism in Korea BEST - Increase of Anti-Americanism in Korea
- The Sino-U.S. rivalry <---please read the instructions above!
- Pax Americana <---please read the instructions above!
- Nationalism <---please read the instructions above!
- Incresing influence of US polices on South Korea polices - Group 4
- Incresing importance of North Korea situation to South Korea - Group 4
- continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime - Group 1
- the nature of divided penninsula between DPRK and ROK - Group 1
- historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition - Group 1
- creation of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war - Group 1
- increase in notion of pax-americana - america's sole pre-eminence - Group 1
- Increasing dependency of South Korean economy on exporting - Group 4
- More opening of South Korean economy to the world - Group 4
- Europe and Japan began to compete effectively with the U.S - Group 2
- As North Korea meets the limits of economice development they try to accept inter-korean Economic Cooperation - Group 2
- The prolonged economic slump has discouraged people from moving to other residential areas - Group 2
- 2008 Beijing Olympics in China - Group 3
- FTA - Group 3
- Bipolarity in wealth - Group 3
- Economic Alignment with North Korea - Group 3
- Increasing Women's rights in South Korea - Group 4
- South Korea's tech competence is on the high skilled HR and high applied science - Group 4
- South Korea's tech competence is on the IT & digital industry - Group 4
- increase in availability of cheap broadband internet in ROK - Group 1
- Stem cell technology - Group 3
- Materialism<---please read the instructions above!
- Increasing relation between S.K economey and environmental issue - Group 4
- Water Shortage - Group 3<---please read the instructions above!
- Energy Crisis - Group 3 <---please read the instructions above!
As a reference you can look at example uncertainties,research questions, driving forces and scenarios developed on a WIKI:
LIACS Scenarios 2005
Leiden University ICT in Business Post Graduate course scenarios.
The Future of WiFi
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The Future of GRID computing
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The Future of the Global Village in 2020
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But how? And what will be the consequences?
The Future of the Internet in China
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