Difference between revisions of "Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Line 1: Line 1:
==Stories / possible developments==
'''2006 – 2008'''
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home.


* Europe flourishes due to the competative work environment.
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.
* Margers and acquisitions as companies wish to impose their technology standard on the industry.
* Oracle purchases SAP to obtain strong foothold in the lucrative European market.
* Foreign investment is at an all time high as the EU economy grows.
* Fight for greater share of the marketplace decreases prices.
* Russia joins the European union as high liberization of the job marketproduces more jobs.




Arjan
'''2008 – 2010'''
* The EU finally fully opens it labour market to the new 10 former east-european member states
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century.
* the use of new cheap labour and highly motivated workers in the "old europe" has a positive effect on its people and the european economy in general, causing strong growth
* talks about membership are started again with croatia, serbia (after the extradiction of Karadzic and Mladic), bosnia and herzegovina, turkey, the ukraine, and georgia
* russia is allowed in during important round tables of eu and national officials
* the fast movements in the mobile market cause different strategic decisions of european telcos regarding mobile standards
* this is being enhanced by the takeover of telenor and teliasonera by NTT docomo who know has almost the entire scandinavian market and plans to expand to the rest of europe using new advanced japanese hsdpa-based technology
* after the surprising election of a new liberal president following all kind of electoral struggling in the usa, and the expansion of the bolivian-venazuelan-cuban socialist pact in latin america the EU plans to create a more integrated foreign policy, creating the stepstone to more integration
* although many new workers from eastern europe come to work in the west, western workers (apart from the entrepeneurs) are hesistant to leave their home place, while not being enforced to do so by the static organisations as well


Jasper
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols:  GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.
* A new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe.
* After years of protest against nuclear energy by environmentalists, a new European law is accepted which prohibit the use of nuclear power throughout Europe.
* As a direct result of the previous two factors the environment shows signs of improvement.


Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of  “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class.


ron
*Employment regulation will change towards more flexible work, that can be  carried out collaboratively at anytime and anyplace.
*When people (businesses) are not ready there won’t be happening much in the area of the corporate workspace. Ultimately, corporations need evidence that a high mobile workforce and mobility will lead in doing better business (creating more shareholder value). Can corporations organise themselves around people that are working from anywhere, anytime, and will that increase work product quality, time-to-market, service quality, R&D, etc.? Because of all technological innovations the world already has become “smaller”, for the next years ahead the benefits of physical contact will also prevail above working from anywhere anytime.


Sander
'''2010 – 2012'''
*EU forces companies to have a more 'mixed' workforce, resulting in companies having problems with cultural issues
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.


'''Developments in short per category'''
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently.


''Political''
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe.


Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe


Over the years the European Union integrates more and more. New members are permitted and within years these countries enroll. Liberation of labor laws within Europe becomes high, leading to an open labor market


''Economical''
'''2012 - 2015'''
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.


At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.


Europe flourishes due to the competitive work environment, European integration and the open labor market.
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce.  


''Society''
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity.


 
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.
The open labor market and addition of new members to the EU causes mixed reactions amongst society. Many people are hesitant to leave their home countries and rather live in the safe home environments
 
''Technological''
 
 
Technology continuous to develop according to Moore’s law. Large technology company drive the market and try to impose their standards. There is great difference in the standards used in Europe, Asia and the USA.
 
''Environmental''
 
 
The environment is a huge issue in the EU and due to the acceptance of a few new laws, the environment shows signs of improvement.
 
 
 
'''A scenario for the coming 5-10 years'''
 
After the disappointing results with the European constitution referenda in France and the Netherlands, the EU decides to change it course. Improvement of the relationship with the European citizens, better promotion campaign and a fresh look at the European constitution are high on the agenda. The fear of negative effects on the European economies proof to be unjust, as economies actually show slow signs of improvement. Europe seems to have come out of the slope of economical decline of recent years.
 
The fast movements in the mobile market cause different strategic decisions of European Telco’s regarding mobile standards. This is being enhanced by the takeover of Telenor and Teliasonera by NTT Docomo who know has almost the entire Scandinavian market and plans to expand to the rest of Europe using new advanced Japanese HSDPA-based technology. Several mergers and acquisitions occur as companies wish to impose their technology standard on the industry. Consequently, there are several proprietary standards which all capture market share in the already crowded mobile market.
 
A new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe. After years of protest against nuclear energy by environmentalists, a new European law is accepted which prohibit the use of nuclear power throughout Europe. As a direct result of the previous two factors the environment shows signs of improvement.
 
After several European meetings the EU sets sail for a new course in which the European citizens are given more and better insight in the daily governing of the EU. Furthermore, a new and improved constitution is accepted and Russia is allowed in during important round tables of EU and national officials in order to give European integration a leg up. The EU fully opens it labor market to the new 10 former East-European member states. Talks about membership are started again with Croatia, Serbia (after the extradition of Karadzic and Mladic), Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey, Ukraine, and Georgia. After the surprising election of a new liberal president following all kind of electoral struggling in the US, as well as the expansion of the Bolivian-Venezuelan-Cuban socialist pact in Latin America the EU plans to create a more integrated foreign policy, creating the step stone to more integration
 
Several mergers and acquisitions of European companies by Asian and American companies occur in order to obtain strong foothold in the lucrative European market. Foreign investment is at an all time high as the EU economy grows. The use of new cheap labor and highly motivated workers in the "old Europe" has a positive effect on its people and the European economy in general causing strong economical growth. Employment regulation will change towards more flexible work, that can be carried out collaboratively at anytime and anyplace. The fight for greater share of the marketplace decreases the price level and inflation is at an all time low.
 
Although many new workers from Eastern Europe come to work in the West, western workers (apart from the entrepreneurs) are hesitant to leave their home place. Additionally, they are not being enforced to do so by the static organizations. EU forces companies to have a more 'mixed' workforce, resulting in companies having problems with cultural issues. The traditional static organization have difficulties accepting the Eastern European workers.
 
More and more western people and organizations struggle with the rigorous integration of the EU. People and businesses are not ready for taking the next step towards the future workspace. As long as this is the case there won’t be happening much in the area of the corporate workspace. Ultimately, corporations need evidence that a high mobile workforce and mobility will lead in doing better business (creating more shareholder value). People much be convinced of the opportunities of the future workspace and be open to these developments. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations have made the world to become “smaller”, but people and organizations hold on to the benefits of physical contact and this prevails above working from anywhere anytime.

Revision as of 00:33, 15 May 2006

2006 – 2008 In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home.

At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.


2008 – 2010 In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century.

Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.

Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class.


2010 – 2012 In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.

At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently.

At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe.

Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe


2012 - 2015 In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.

At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.

Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce.

This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity.

For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.