Difference between revisions of "Driving Forces"

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A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force:
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Determining Driving Forces
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Observable changes in society, politics, technology, art, etc. are often only the symptoms of more fundamental transformations. For instance, high unemployment is the result of underlying forces in the labour market, which in turn are affected by such factors as the rate of productivity improvement.
<td align="right" valign="top"><br><br>A driving force is a conceptual tool that helps us understand deep trends working in the world and has an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. Below are an introduction about how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and an instruction on how to upload your driving forces. These were originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone interested in scenario planning practices.
 
Rather than providing an exact definition for these driving forces, we have decided to pursue a more pragmatic approach, which is adopted from quality improvement programs. We start with an observable change and ask "Why?" repeatedly. Where to stop asking "why?" is also a pragmatic matter to be decided by common sense.
 
It would be naive to expect clear chains of causality. Instead what will emerge is a "web" of interrelated driving forces. This web will also not be static, but rather evolve. Over time new forces will be added, existing ones combined and/or replaced, etc.
Each driving force can be described using a number of attributes:
 
Name? Name the driving force, it helps to be specific (rather than “Demographics”, call it “The gradual ageing of Europe” to indicate direction of the force)
What? A short description of the driving force.
Enablers? Factors which strengthen this driving force.
Inhibitors? Factors which weaken this driving force.
Paradigms? Changes in ways of thinking about the world due to the driving force.
Experts? Sources for additional information about this driving force. (if you have found people)
Timing? Dates for key milestones in the development of the driving force.
Web Resources: Useful resources on the web relating to this force.
 
I would suggest that each group comes up with at least 10 DFs. One of the easiest ways to do this, is to take a trade publication (i.e. a magazine/website that looks at your issue), look at the articles and start asking “why does this happen?, what creates this item”, and use that to go down the iceberg.  Learn as much, and research as much about your issue as you can.
   
   
As a next step in class on 21 May Paul shall describe the different ways to go from a driving force to the systems diagram to the scenarios.
<p>[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br>
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br>
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]</p>
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<p align="right">''Go back to [[Main Page]]''</p>


I’ve set up a new discussion forum which is much more usable than the past one for adding your driving forces to it.  Could you please go to XXX and when you have completed your driving forces and add it to the discussion forums. This is voluntary action for each group to share the driving forces with the rest of the class as the driving forces of the group looking at the  broadband communications might be relevant to the group looking at the future of banking.  The forum can be accessed on:
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<td valign="top">'''[[Political Driving Forces]]'''
<font size="-2">Including:<br>
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]], [[Host to the 2008 Olympic Games Beijing,china]], [[Elimination the gap between poor and rich in china]],[[Strike in China]] </font></td>
<td valign="top">'''[[Economic Driving Forces]]'''
<font size="-2">Including:<br>
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], , [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]], [[Shift to Alternative Energy Sources]] and [[Affective Issues on China Economy]], [[Increasing influence of Seoul's economic condition on the overall Korean economy]],[[continuing the low growth of korea's economy]], [[Foreign Exchange Rate of China]]</font>


A older open driving force database exists on the DTN’s discussion forums for your reference. (http://www.dtn.net/community.html)
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<td valign="top">'''[[Societal Driving Forces]]'''
<font size="-2">Including:<br>
[[Aging population]], [[liberalization of the health care market]], [[the rise of ethics in the Netherlands]], [[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]], [[Community Feeling]], [[Digital Literacy]], [[Future Value of an MBA]], [[Increasing influence of Millennials]], [[Increasing Mobility]], [[Violence in computer games]] [[Time as a valuable resource]] and [[Population of China]]</font></td>
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<td valign="top">'''[[Technological Driving Forces]]'''
<font size="-2">Including:<br>
[[Artificial Neural Networks]], [[Gaming Industry]],[[Mobility]], [[Nanotechnology]], [[Peer-to-Peer Technology]], [[The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates]], [[Virtual Communities]] and [[Voice-recognition system]]</font></td>
<td valign="top">'''[[Environmental Driving Forces]]'''
<font size="-2">Including: <br>
[[Introduction of greenhouse gases emissions trading]], [[Global Dimming]], [[Acid Rain]], [[E-paper solution instead of the paper work]], [[The change of children playing sports to children playing videogames]] and [[Chinese Pollution Problems by Rapid Growth]], [[Increasing efforts to make Seoul a clean and green place to live]]</font>
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<p align="right">''Go back to [[Main Page]]''</p>

Latest revision as of 00:15, 2 August 2006

Drivingforces.jpg

A driving force is a conceptual tool that helps us understand deep trends working in the world and has an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. Below are an introduction about how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and an instruction on how to upload your driving forces. These were originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone interested in scenario planning practices.

How to determine a driving force?
Driving Forces Template
How to Upload a Driving Force

Go back to Main Page

Political Driving Forces

Including:

An Open China, Control of the Internet, Economic Growth in China, Islamic Fundamentalism, Power of the United Nations, Proliferation of nuclear weapons and World Unification, Host to the 2008 Olympic Games Beijing,china, Elimination the gap between poor and rich in china,Strike in China 		Economic Driving Forces

Including:
E-commerce in developing countries, Crisis of the capitalism, , Open Source, Declining Dollar, Chinese Families' economic condition, Shift to Alternative Energy Sources and Affective Issues on China Economy, Increasing influence of Seoul's economic condition on the overall Korean economy,continuing the low growth of korea's economy, Foreign Exchange Rate of China

Societal Driving Forces

Including:

Aging population, liberalization of the health care market, the rise of ethics in the Netherlands, Chinese people's increasing leisure time, Community Feeling, Digital Literacy, Future Value of an MBA, Increasing influence of Millennials, Increasing Mobility, Violence in computer games Time as a valuable resource and Population of China
Technological Driving Forces

Including:

Artificial Neural Networks, Gaming Industry,Mobility, Nanotechnology, Peer-to-Peer Technology, The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates, Virtual Communities and Voice-recognition system		 Environmental Driving Forces

Including:
Introduction of greenhouse gases emissions trading, Global Dimming, Acid Rain, E-paper solution instead of the paper work, The change of children playing sports to children playing videogames and Chinese Pollution Problems by Rapid Growth, Increasing efforts to make Seoul a clean and green place to live

Go back to Main Page

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