Difference between revisions of "Climate Change Negotiations"

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How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years? A scenario set that explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years. Will there be multilateral agreements lead by the UN, or bilateral agreements, will countries or companies be in the lead, will this result in a new economic order, etc.
= Group Members =
= Group Members =
[[Bastian Wollenschein]]<br>
[[Bastian Wollenschein]]<br>
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[[Ling-Chin Fan]]<br>
[[Ling-Chin Fan]]<br>
[[Rachit Tayal]]<br>
[[Rachit Tayal]]<br>
== presentation feedback==
5 scenarios are too much you need to bring it down to 4
Use stories not tell what it is there, you are at times close to stories
"oil is at the brink of finishing" better to be specific
Like the introduction to g20 forum- nice shift
Good scenarios - well organized but what about business leading, cities leading?


= Group Members =
= Numbers That Matter Presentation =
 
[[Antiretroviral_Therapy_Programme_for_South_Africa|ART Programme in South Africa]]
 
= Introduction =
[[File:Unfccc.jpg|thumb| UNFCCC |300px]]
[[File:Cop16.jpg|thumb| COP-16, Cancun|300px]]


= Numbers That Matter =
Climate forms a very critical part of the ecosystem that sustains life on earth and it is changing rapidly due to human activity. Almost every strategic decision today is in some way dependent on how the climate change would evolve in coming years. Although the extent of change and its consequences are being investigated by scientist, the action lies within the jurisdiction of the national governments and any success depends on their collaboration and leadership. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the joint treaty that looks into the aspect of reducing green house gases by emission reduction and ensuring economic growth in tandem. Despite major efforts from several nations no concrete steps in emission reductions have emerged till now, the future of these negotiations is critical to rationally understand the uncertainties involved and thereafter devise a strategy that fits all probably futures.<br><br>
Therefore, this scenario set explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years. <br><br>


= The Focal Issue =
= The Focal Issue =
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= Scenario Tree =
= Scenario Tree =
[[File:Scenario tree.jpg|600px|thumb|centre|The Scenario Tree]]<br>
[[File:CLimate change scenario tree.jpg|600px|thumb| centre |Scenario Tree]]


= Scenario Stories =
= Scenario Stories =
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*;[[Stalemate]]
*;[[Stalemate]]
:''Deadlock among stake holders''
:''Deadlock among stake holders''
*;[[Something Better Than Nothing]]
*;[[G20]]
:''Multilateral/bilateral agreements between different countries''
:''Multilateral Agreement through G20''
*;[[Two driving all]]
:''A bilateral agreement pushes the other nations''
*;[[A Lost Purpose]]
*;[[A Lost Purpose]]
:''Negotiations succeed but earth dies''
:''Negotiations succeed but earth dies''
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3. [[Media]]<br>
3. [[Media]]<br>
4. [[Lobbyists]]<br>
4. [[Lobbyists]]<br>
5. [[Opposing Experts]]<br>
6. [[Supporting Experts]]<br>
7. [[Misc/Others]]<br>


=Systems=
=System diagram=


==Subsystems==
[[File:Systems_CCN.JPG|200px|]]<br>


[[File:Systems_China.JPG|100px|thumb|none|China]]
Separate subsystems for the main negotiations participants could be found under the Countries section above
[[File:Systems_India.JPG|100px|thumb|none|India]]
[[File:Systems_EU.JPG|100px|thumb|none|EU]]
[[File:Systems_Brazil.JPG|100px|thumb|none|Brazil]]
[[File:Russia.JPG|100px|thumb|none|Russia]]
[[File:Japan.JPG|100px|thumb|none|Japan]]
[[File:Systems_SA.JPG|100px|thumb|none|South Africa]]
[[File:Systems_US.JPG|100px|thumb|none|U.S.]]
[[File:Systems_OPEC.JPG|100px|thumb|none|OPEC]]
 
==Top level system==
[[File:Systems_CCN.JPG|200px|]]<br>


= Questions to research =
= Questions to research =
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== Environmental Driving Forces ==  
== Environmental Driving Forces ==  
1. [[Greenhouse gas increase]]<br>
1. [[Greenhouse gas increase]]<br>
2. [http://www.scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Catastrophes_-_Acts_of_God Catastrophes - Acts of God]<br>
2. [[Catastrophes_-_Acts_of_God|Catastrophes - Acts of God]]<br>


== Political Driving Forces ==  
== Political Driving Forces ==  

Revision as of 23:10, 5 October 2010