Difference between revisions of "Climate Change Negotiations"

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How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years? A scenario set that explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years. Will there be multilateral agreements lead by the UN, or bilateral agreements, will countries or companies be in the lead, will this result in a new economic order, etc.
= Group Members =
= Group Members =
[[Bastian Wollenschein]]<br>
[[Bastian Wollenschein]]<br>
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[[Ling-Chin Fan]]<br>
[[Ling-Chin Fan]]<br>
[[Rachit Tayal]]<br>
[[Rachit Tayal]]<br>
== presentation feedback==
5 scenarios are too much you need to bring it down to 4
Use stories not tell what it is there, you are at times close to stories
"oil is at the brink of finishing" better to be specific
Like the introduction to g20 forum- nice shift
Good scenarios - well organized but what about business leading, cities leading?


= Numbers That Matter =
= Numbers That Matter Presentation =
 
[[Antiretroviral_Therapy_Programme_for_South_Africa|ART Programme in South Africa]]
 
= Introduction =
[[File:Unfccc.jpg|thumb| UNFCCC |300px]]
[[File:Cop16.jpg|thumb| COP-16, Cancun|300px]]
 
Climate forms a very critical part of the ecosystem that sustains life on earth and it is changing rapidly due to human activity. Almost every strategic decision today is in some way dependent on how the climate change would evolve in coming years. Although the extent of change and its consequences are being investigated by scientist, the action lies within the jurisdiction of the national governments and any success depends on their collaboration and leadership. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the joint treaty that looks into the aspect of reducing green house gases by emission reduction and ensuring economic growth in tandem. Despite major efforts from several nations no concrete steps in emission reductions have emerged till now, the future of these negotiations is critical to rationally understand the uncertainties involved and thereafter devise a strategy that fits all probably futures.<br><br>
Therefore, this scenario set explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years. <br><br>


= The Focal Issue =
= The Focal Issue =
----
----
'''How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?''' <br>
'''How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?''' <br>
----
----
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
 
= Scenario Tree =
[[File:CLimate change scenario tree.jpg|600px|thumb| centre |Scenario Tree]]


= Scenario Stories =
= Scenario Stories =
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*;[[Stalemate]]
*;[[Stalemate]]
:''Deadlock among stake holders''
:''Deadlock among stake holders''
*;[[Something Better Than Nothing]]
*;[[G20]]
:''Multilateral/bilateral agreements between different countries''
:''Multilateral Agreement through G20''
*;[[Two driving all]]
:''A bilateral agreement pushes the other nations''
*;[[A Lost Purpose]]
*;[[A Lost Purpose]]
:''Negotiations succeed but earth dies''
:''Negotiations succeed but earth dies''
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3. [[Media]]<br>
3. [[Media]]<br>
4. [[Lobbyists]]<br>
4. [[Lobbyists]]<br>
5. [[Opposing Experts]]<br>
6. [[Supporting Experts]]<br>
7. [[Misc/Others]]<br>


=Systems=
=System diagram=


==Subsystems==
[[File:Systems_CCN.JPG|200px|]]<br>


[[File:Systems_China.JPG|100px|thumb|none|China]]
Separate subsystems for the main negotiations participants could be found under the Countries section above
[[File:Systems_India.JPG|100px|thumb|none|India]]
[[File:Systems_EU.JPG|100px|thumb|none|EU]]
[[File:Systems_Brazil.JPG|100px|thumb|none|Brazil]]
[[File:Russia.JPG|100px|thumb|none|Russia]]
[[File:Japan.JPG|100px|thumb|none|Japan]]
[[File:Systems_SA.JPG|100px|thumb|none|South Africa]]
[[File:Systems_US.JPG|100px|thumb|none|U.S.]]
[[File:Systems_OPEC.JPG|100px|thumb|none|OPEC]]
 
==Top level system==
[[File:Systems_CCN.JPG|200px|]]<br>


= Questions to research =
= Questions to research =
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18. [[Is there a real evidence of climate change happening?]]<br>
18. [[Is there a real evidence of climate change happening?]]<br>
19. [[Is the gap between government policy and negotiation target/result huge?]]<br>
19. [[Is the gap between government policy and negotiation target/result huge?]]<br>
20. [[Is there any risk for climate change negotiation?]]<br>
20. [[Is there any risk for climate change negotiation?]]<br><br>
<br>


= Driving forces =
= Driving forces =
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== Environmental Driving Forces ==  
== Environmental Driving Forces ==  
1. [[Greenhouse gas increase]]<br>
1. [[Greenhouse gas increase]]<br>
2. [http://www.scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Catastrophes_-_Acts_of_God Catastrophes - Acts of God]<br>
2. [[Catastrophes_-_Acts_of_God|Catastrophes - Acts of God]]<br>


== Political Driving Forces ==  
== Political Driving Forces ==  
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== Technological Driving Forces ==  
== Technological Driving Forces ==  
1. [[Advancement in Nuclear Power Generation]]<br>
1. [[Advancement in Nuclear Power Generation]]<br>
2. [[Development of cheaper & efficient solar panels]]<br>
2. [[Development of Cheaper & Efficient Solar Panels]]<br>
3. [[Innovation & development of alternate sources like hydrogen fuel cells]]<br>
3. [[Development of Alternate Energy Sources]]<br><br>
<br>


= Useful sources =
= Useful sources =
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-[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm#1 IPCC 4th assessment report]<br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm#1 IPCC 4th assessment report]<br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Summary for Policy Makers]<BR>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Summary for Policy Makers]<BR>
-[http://www.erim.eur.nl/ERIM/Research/Centres/Sustainability_and_Climate_Research_%28SCR%29 ERIM SCR from RSM]<br>


==Articles and protocols==
==Articles and protocols==
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-Summary of the above [http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/awglca11/eng/08.pdf]<br>
-Summary of the above [http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/awglca11/eng/08.pdf]<br>
-[http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-relations/countries/china/ EU Commission on trade with China]<br>
-[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/21/dutch-troops-to-pull-out_n_470708.html]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_attack_on_Iraq Attack_on_Iraq]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Enduring_Freedom Operation Enduring Freedom]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%93present) War in Afghanistan]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11]<br>
-[http://across.co.nz/WorldsWorstDisasters.html]<br>
-[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VFV-3XR2V33-6&_user=10&_coverDate=10%2F31%2F1999&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1434235932&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=caa5fa5558aea88a05f7c941f4a1d8d9]<br>
-[http://unfccc.int/2860.php UNFCCC]<br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm IPCC]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization Urbanization]


==Videos==
==Videos==
-James Hanson to DTN (confidential therefore not published)<br>
-James Hanson to DTN (confidential therefore not published)<br>
-[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/heat/view/ Smith, Martin; Heat from the U.S.]
-[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/heat/view/ Smith, Martin; Heat from the U.S.]<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZwzG20O4s8 Meet the BINGOs]<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfhKx6Byjrw The Carbon Market Lobby]<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLHLNywrPBg The Oil and Coal Lobbies]<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl7nc4UfP3I The Agriculture Lobby]<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eoSUoENIpk The Electricity and Gas Lobbies]<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRQKfLj-598 The Alternative Energy Lobby]<br>
-[http://www.danwei.org/featured_video/hans_rosling_on_chinas_rise.php Hans Rosling on China]<br>
-[http://www.gapminder.org/videos/gapcasts/gapcast-2-urbanization/ Hans Rosling on urbanization]
 
==Data and graphs==
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_History_and_Flux_Rev.png Carbon history]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Carbon_Emissions.svg Carbon emissions]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2_increase_rate.png Co2 increase]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png GHG trends]<br>
-[http://unfccc.int/files/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/image/pjpeg/trends_excluding_2009.jpg GHG trends according to UNFCCC]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters List of natural disasters]<br>

Revision as of 23:10, 5 October 2010