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Welcome to the aSSIST 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic business. The class is divided into blocks that are listed below.

'Lecturer Notes We have changed the course outline to develop our chosen scenario focus. We shall be developing scenarios on the Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015

Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking, and defining a Research Space

In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking.  Different scenario methodologies are introduced.  A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.

Session 1: Scenario Thinking (24 May)

  • Introduction
  • Strategies for Dealing with Complexity
  • Scenario Thinking:
  • A creative process
    • A multidisciplinary process
    • An exploratory process
    • A process with results
    • An ongoing process
  • Determining Driving Forces
  • Scenario thinking in practice


Session 2: Under the Iceberg (26 May)

From uncertainties to Driving Forces

  • What is a Driving Force?
  • Developing Driving Forces from uncertainties
  • Interrelating the Driving Forces in Systems Diagrams (time allowing)

Homework Developing the Driving Forces deeper and adding them to the WIKI database and the Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015 page.

Block 2: Building Scenarios

Scenarios are a communication processes and to work within an organisation or a community of practice the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people.  This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.

Session 3: Building Scenarios (31 May)

Determine the key uncertainties:

  • Develop a systems diagram based on the driving forces
  • Determine the key uncertainties
  • Define the scenarios
  • Develop causal maps for each scenario
  • Sketch the key stories that the scenarios will communicate

Session 4: From Scenarios to Strategy (2 June)

Improve the scenarios. What actions can be learnt from the scenario space?

  • Lessons from the Mont Fleur process
  • Scenarios to strategy
  • Presenting the scenarios
  • Improving the scenarios
  • Learning from Scenarios in a social context

Course Assessment

The students are expected to as a group deliver a scenario set. This scenario set will address the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015 and use the theoretical material discussed during the course.

Grading the course is based on 3 components:

  1. Groupwork (research area, writing the final scenarios) 50%
  2. Individual work (object from the future, driving forces) 35%
  3. Class participation (virtual and physical) 15%