Scenario 3
Internet TV part, Fee from customer Because the power structure of TV industry interweaves with many other issues, for example, politics, society, and TV always acts as the role of window to present other industries. A lot of national governments put strict regulation on establishing new TV channels, and censor the content on TV. Within the next 10 years, there will definitely still be nations existing in the world. The governments and ministerial parties in many countries will keep trying to control content of mass media and block certain channels that are against to them, which means that TV can’t be a totally free and fair competing market. Even though internet content providers may be able to supply the access to some TV programs for internet end users, the government may not allow these internet content providers to establish their own TV channels, let alone large scale TV stations.
But on the other side, the big boys in internet business will not sit still in such case. According to our research, Google is now trying to build up its own TV program distribution, and nurture a market for internet TV. With the popularity of internet, people are actually more accustomed to the way of collecting information on line and entertaining on line. Increasing number of customers would like to pay for the on line programs to directly and conveniently get what they want. The government can regulate a lot of businesses, but democracy will go to prosperity that individual behaviors and preference will less likely to be censored too heavily. Therefore, it is very hard for the government to totally kick the internet business players out of the TV market. So what the government can do is to restrict them from sensitive TV markets, censor their content and protect traditional TV stations, but whatever the government does, internet content providers will grasp market of special programs and get their revenue from customers and advertisement in certain countries.
Traditional TV part, user expectation
TV industry faces the same war that bookstores encountered in the late 90s with Amazon.com. Traditional bookstore companies such as Barnes & Noble developed their own online retail presence to compete, and continue to draw plenty of people in their real stores. In terms of aspect of user’s expectation, traditional forms of TV programming will find a peaceful co-existence with internet TV including streaming or downloaded media.
Appointment viewing Customers still have favorites - and sit down to watch them at appointed times. Basically, people still like to have things scheduled for them - certain programs are on at certain times. We can say those channels that don’t have some on-demand features will have a hard time. But we cannot deny that most viewers know what program they are going to watch and tend to follow it when they turn on the TV.
Random selection Customers pay subscription fee to see their favorite channels. This kind of situation is similar with very famous Apple’s music player device, iPod shuffle. “What will it play next? Can it read your mind? Can it read your moods? Load it up. Put it on. See where it takes you.” It’s another way of thinking: Random and unpredictable means more fun you get. In other words, it’s quite possible that sports fans may watch any sports program on ESPN channels without knowing what’s on exactly. In this way, we can see traditional TV networks still have advantages of program production if they adapt the subscription business model.
Interactive way Lots of customers cannot have internet, they still rely on cable, satellite or TV waves to get in touch with the world. Even though more and more rich interactive advanced technology of internet (Web 2.0 RIA) is highly expected by the earlier adaptors, most consumers around the world don’t have that much choices. They still like plain TV. However, new interactive technology via traditional way glows rapidly. Thus, lots of chance still remains there for broadcast or cable networks.