Increased water scarcity in China

Increased water scarcity in China

Description:

China’s explosive, often wasteful style of economic growth is pushing the country toward a water crisis. Water is scarce in north China, while population growth and economic growth is causing demand to increase. Moreover, water pollution is rampant nationwide. Water pollution is so widespread that regulators say a major incident occurs every other day. Municipal and industrial dumping has left sections of many rivers “unfit for human contact.” Cities like Beijing and Tianjin have shown progress on water conservation, but China’s economy continues to emphasize growth. Industry in China uses 3 to 10 times more water, depending on the product, than industries in developed nations.

Numbers:

• 489 million people in China live in water scarce areas. [1]
• More than a third of China's GDP is produced in water scarce areas in the North where 100 cities are facing severe shortages. [1]
• 300 million rural residents are drinking unsafe water, and one in five sources of drinking water for major cities is below standard [1]
• Approximately two-thirds of the 661 cities suffer from water shortages now, and more cities will face this crisis in the future. [2]

Enablers:

• Economic growth: Industrialization and urbanization has increased the demand for water and contributes to water scarcity.
• Population growth: More people means more demand for water.
• Increase in number of households and decrease in household size: Because smaller households consume more resources per person, China's rapid increase in household number and reduction in household size will increase the consumption of water.
• Climate change: Climate change has caused rainfall to steadily decline, increasing the scarcity of water.
• Government policies: Originally farmers compensated for limited rainfall by planting less crops, but Chinese government policies have pushed for higher production so farmers have been planting more crops. [3]
• Water pollution: Industrialization and urbanization has contributed to water pollution, especially in Southern China.
• Increasing affluence: As people become more affluent, their lifestyle becomes more leisurely and they tend to use more water for certain activities. (i.e., people take longer showers, wash their cars etc.)

Inhibitors:

• Government policy changes: The government could potentially implement new policies and restrictions on water usage.
• A decrease in economic growth: If the economy slows due to the global recession, then less water will be needed for industrial production.
• Increased public awareness and education about the environment: People may change their water consumption habits if they realize how scarce water is and if they are educated about the consequences of their consumption patterns.
• Increases in the price of water: By increasing the cost of water, the government can better promote water conservation.
• New projects to increase water supply: China is currently in the planning stages to build a funnel from south China to North China. The funnel will send more than 12 trillion gallons northward every year along three routes from the Yangtze River basin, where water is more abundant.
• Technological advances in water sanitation: Water may become less scarce as advances are made in science to filter and clean polluted water.

Paradigms:

• China has a severe regional water imbalance with about four-fifths of the water supply in the south. As water becomes increasingly scarce this imbalance may cause social unrest and conflict between the northern and southern regions of China.
• Conflicts may arise between China and its neighboring countries if the country decides to look for new sources of water.
• As water becomes more scarce, farmers will not be able to plant crops and food may become more scarce. Additionally, the quality of food produced in China may come into question as farmers continue to use polluted water for crops. Both of these factors may cause the health of the Chinese population to decline.
• Economic growth may slow down significantly if comes down to whether or not people have enough water to survive and water needed for production of goods. This may slow China's rise as a economic power.

Timing:

• 1949 - Present: Water usage in China has quintupled since 1949
• 2006 - Official news agency says 18 million people are affected by what it describes as the country's worst drought in 50 years
• 2040 - Scientists say that the aquifers below the North China Plain may be drained within 30 years
• 2050 - China is still in the planning stages a $62 billion project called the South-to-North Water Transfer Project to funnel more than 12 trillion gallons northward every year along three routes from the Yangtze River basin, where water is more abundant. The project, if fully built, would be completed in 2050.

Experts:

• Zhang Zhongmin - Professor at Xi'An University Of Technology
• Richard Evans - Hydrologist who has worked in China for two decades and has served as a consultant to the World Bank and China’s Ministry of Water Resources
• Ma Jun - Chinese environmentalist, non-fiction writer, environmental consultant, and journalist
• Zheng Chunmiao - Leading international groundwater expert
• Xiaoke Jiang - Former Director, Beijing’s Environmental Protection Bureau, Beijing

Web Resources:

1. Jun, Ma. 2007. How participation can help China's ailing environment.
2. PBS. 2006. China's Environmental Future.
3. Yardley, J. 2007. Beneath Booming Cities, China’s Future Is Drying Up
4. World Resources Institute. 1999. China's Health and Environment: Water scarcity, water pollution, and health.