Digital Cinema

In this scenario, the internet/mobile TV industry is controlled by a small number of companies who supply copyrighted high-quality content that users have to pay for. Copyrighted content will become the norm for internet television and mobile television.

2008: A couple of new laws have been passed, making it illegal to download music and movies from unofficial sources. As IPTV/mobile TV is further developed, new laws are also being made to prevent the growth of illegal content. The internet television market is in its early stages and is starting to grow, now that it’s easier to win legal procedures against illegal content providers.

2009: DRM is now fully implemented in online videos and becomes required by law in the USA. As a result, copyrighted videos on Youtube now require a small fee (less than a dollar) in order to be watched. The quality of the videos will improve a lot, since it has become a persuasion factor for Youtube’s paying customers. Users can still upload their own videos however. These are still free and not copyrighted. P2P content providers are getting sued out of existence. Low-quality, user generated content will remain free.

2010: Broadband coverage improves due to lower prices, and the government also subsidizes wireless internet for cities so that it’s publically available for everyone on the streets and in parks. The financial crisis in the US has worsened the global economy. In addition, all countries have passed new environmental laws resulting in higher pollution tax, making it so that only the biggest IT and television broadcasting companies survive (Google, Microsoft, BBC, CNN etc.). Joint ventures between these companies will improve the coverage and quality of IPTV significantly. They will set up websites similar to Youtube, with only copyrighted content, such as movies, available. Creating an account on those websites will not be free. The price will drop after awhile because of competition.

2011: Internet broadband speed will be fast enough to transmit HDTV, and mobile TV will become more and more widespread because of the wide variety of available content. People are now able to watch television on their mobile phone while waiting for the train or bus, or at the airport. Low quality video on the internet will cease to exist, as the hardware and internet connection speed will have the capacity to handle HDTV smoothly. The internet TV companies will now offer subscriptions for mobile TV combined with a regular mobile phone subscription. Because of this, the late majority will now also adopt the mobile TV technology.

2012: The global recession is over, which provides opportunities for smaller IT companies to get into the Internet TV business. A lot of these smaller companies will be taken over by the market leading companies, or have some tasks insourced from the large companies. These tasks can range from system administration to helpdesk. The internet TV market is expanding to less developed countries, because products are getting cheaper. Mobile internet coverage will reach 90%.

2013: The now worldwide use of mobile TV and internet TV is presumed to be taking its toll on the environment, and therefore governments have begun subsidizing green technology. Also, governmental regulations and e-waste recycling companies will do a good job keeping the pollution at bay, preventing natural disasters from happening. At the end of 2013, over 60% of electric power comes from green sources. The internet television market can grow further.

2014: Digital television will completely replace analog television, as the demand for video-on-demand television increases. All digital television programs can be watched on big screen TVs in the living room, computers, and mobile phones alike. This means that all television programs exist on the internet now as copyrighted content.

2015: Mobile TV will become an everyday thing for everybody, like the analog television was in 2007. The laggards (mainly older people, 60+) will now be aware of its convenience, and will adopt the technology quickly once they meet many other people using it. Universal digital television standards have been developed, allowing people to watch television in all countries on their own mobile phone.

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