Scenario 2: Mashup Misuse

In this scenario, many mashups created during the early stages of the development of mashups, will misuse information provided, by using for illegal purpose or by violating privacy. Therefore, the acceptance of the new technology of mashups is low and the people are sceptic about what mashups can do for them. Consumers are not interested in mashups as they see them as an invasion of their privacy. Companies, that could make their information available, do not want to reveal this information as they are afraid that this will reveal their core competences. These companies suspect that mashups will make them vulnerable, an easy target for the competition and they do not want to be misused. This conservative approach is seen in industry as well as with consumers; it has a negative effect on the development of technology and the availability of information.

This negative attitude is partly caused and enhanced by the tighter controls of the government on information traffic. Misuse is higher fined and this deters the development and availability of new technologies and information. At the moment software is protected by copyright and this copyright will be continued in the future. As people and companies are protecting themselves, more copyrights and patents will be introduced and the copyrights in place will be protected.

The availability of internet, like broadband access, will remain the same over the next years, or will develop slowly. Client hardware will continue to develop like it has over the past few years, but no revolutionary changes will occur because of the conservative attitude of the world. Companies that have previously made their API’s available will protect them again, as during the early years of their usage the API’s were misused to such an extent that continuing the availability is not an option. Other companies that could make their API’s available are warned by this and will not even consider doing so. Application service providers are also cautious because of the misuse and possible misuse; therefore there is no competition between the different providers and they do not push or promote their services. As everyone is very protective of their products, no technology standards will be emplaced. Browsers protect their own language and the different programs are not compatible with one another. As there are so many hurdles to create mashups, it is made very difficult to do so, also the demand is very low, so technologists will not be motivated to create mashups.

Even though technology will continue to develop, the sceptic and protective attitude seen in industry and society has a negative effect on the development of mashups. They will hardly, if at all, be created in the future as the risk is too great.

Scenario 1: Mashup Mania

Scenario 3: Mashups continue to develop slowly