https://www.scenariothinking.org/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=Ppap&feedformat=atomScenarioThinking - User contributions [en]2024-03-29T00:58:35ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.37.0https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8767The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-15T10:45:14Z<p>Ppap: /* Research */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table><br />
<br />
<br><br><br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br> <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br><br />
<br />
== Research ==<br />
<br />
'''Research topics'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Research topics]]<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Research performed'''<br />
<br><br />
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited number of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above). <br />
<br><br />
The total research is presented in the following document:<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/2/20/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Original research question'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Original research question]]<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8757The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-15T10:44:48Z<p>Ppap: /* Articles, Concepts, Links */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table><br />
<br />
<br><br><br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br> <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br><br />
<br />
== Research ==<br />
<br />
'''Research topics'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Research topics]]<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Research performed'''<br />
<br><br />
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited number of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above). <br />
<br><br />
The total research is presented in the following document:<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/2/20/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Original research question'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Original research question]]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8756The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-15T10:41:20Z<p>Ppap: /* Research */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table><br />
<br />
<br><br><br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br> <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br><br />
<br />
== Research ==<br />
<br />
'''Research topics'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Research topics]]<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Research performed'''<br />
<br><br />
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited number of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above). <br />
<br><br />
The total research is presented in the following document:<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/2/20/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Original research question'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Original research question]]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8755The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-15T10:40:59Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table><br />
<br />
<br><br><br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br> <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br><br />
<br />
== Research ==<br />
<br />
'''Research topics'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Research topics]]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Research performed'''<br />
<br><br />
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited number of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above). <br />
<br><br />
The total research is presented in the following document:<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/2/20/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Original research question'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Original research question]]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8754The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-15T10:40:31Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table><br />
<br />
<br><br><br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br> <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
== Research ==<br />
<br />
'''Research topics'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Research topics]]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Research performed'''<br />
<br><br />
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited number of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above). <br />
<br><br />
The total research is presented in the following document:<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/2/20/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Original research question'''<br />
<br><br />
[[Original research question]]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8616The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T17:28:39Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
<br><br />
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited number of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above). <br />
<br><br />
The total research is presented in the following document:<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/2/20/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8605The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T17:27:56Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
<br><br />
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited numer of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above). The total research is presented in the following document:<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/2/20/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8604The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T17:22:34Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Image:All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/2/20/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8603The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T17:21:45Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Image:All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc&diff=13986File:All forces for the future of the Lowlands.doc2005-12-13T17:20:56Z<p>Ppap: This document contains the total set of research for the scenarios 'Future of the Lowlands in 2025'</p>
<hr />
<div>This document contains the total set of research for the scenarios 'Future of the Lowlands in 2025'</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8602The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T17:13:16Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
<br><br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8601The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T17:04:31Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
<br><br />
All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8600The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T17:03:00Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8599The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T17:02:16Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
All_forces_for_the_future_of_the_Lowlands.doc<br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8598The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T16:58:31Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''All forces for the future of the Lowlands'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025&diff=8597The future of the Lowlands in 20252005-12-13T16:42:54Z<p>Ppap: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br><br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''<br />
<br />
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.<br />
<br />
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…<br />
<br />
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''<br />
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Research questions ==<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?<br />
<br />
2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:<br />
<br />
'''Political structure:'''<br />
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)<br />
<br />
'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;<br />
<br />
'''Social structure:''' <br />
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;<br />
<br />
'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;<br />
<br />
'''Environmental:''' climate changes<br />
<br />
3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?<br />
<br />
4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)<br />
<br />
5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?<br />
<br />
6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?<br />
<br />
7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?<br />
<br />
8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact):<br />
- Will they integrate or create seperate communities?<br />
- What will be the impact on violence and terrorism?<br />
<br />
9. Which political issues will be dealt with on local level and which on a European or even global level?<br />
- How does this affect political decision making in the Benelux?<br />
- How does this affect the feeling of identity in the countries?<br />
<br />
10. How will political and economical decision making in the countries develop, in order to catch up with the decision speed in eastern asian countries?<br />
<br />
11. How will the increasing number of mobility problems (traffic jams etc.) influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux?<br />
<br />
12. How will the extensive legal hustle for potential establishing companies influence the economical attractivenes of the Benelux? <br />
<br />
13. How will the gap between rich and poor develop?<br />
<br />
14. What will an increasing gap between rich and poor do to the Western European society?<br />
<br />
15. What actions are governments taking to increase integration? What is the expected outcome?<br />
<br />
16. How will the global labour market evolve? <br />
<br />
17. In what way would our society be affected by a major financial crisis (crash of real estate prices or stock markets)?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Driving Forces ==<br />
<br />
'''Political'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br><br />
<br />
'''Societal'''<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Technological''' <br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''Economical'''<br />
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br />
<br />
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==<br />
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== System Diagram ==<br />
<br />
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt<br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Four Scenarios ==<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<table><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
</tr><br />
<tr><br />
<td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td><br />
<td></td><br />
<td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td><br />
</tr><br />
</table></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=European_integration&diff=13723European integration2005-11-10T18:57:13Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Description:===<br />
European integration started for an important part as a reaction to the second World War, because there was nu unity, there became war. This was a political reason, where the building blocks were economic. After long years of peace and prosperity in western Europe, together with the collapse of the Soviet threat, make further European integration seem much less urgent.<br />
<br />
The very depth of the political integration achieved so far has caused something of a backlash as the EU has gained new powers that threaten deeply rooted national traditions (fields such as frontier controls and fiscal policy). Also expansion led to an increased political diversity that can often seem harmfull for a national identity. The speed of expansion strenghtens this feeling.<br />
<br />
European integration (compared to the USA) is limited by the lack of a common language, common history (leading to national identity) and the fact that Europeans citizens are homebodies (only 1,6% lives outside their home country to work or study). Immigration and often Moslim immigration also harm the feeling of national identity.<br />
<br />
People expect prosperity and jobs from Europe. The current economic downturn and need for economic reform work against European integration. Many economists think the EU has played a crucial role by creating a secure legal environment for business and enabling European companies to reap the economies of scale previously available only in the United States. This lead to to the prosperity that European citizens value so much.<br />
<br />
It will be that European citizens, facing difficult economic times and the erosion of their much-loved “European social model”, decide to put some of the blame on the Union itself. Too fast liberalisation and globalization are seen now as reasons for unemployment and a possible downturn of economy.<br />
<br />
Conclusion: <br />
The current trend to stop a European integration, fed by a feeling of losing national identity and losing prosperity could actually strengthen the downwards trend of prosperity as it is especially businesses that benefit from the economies of scale and unified legislation that an integrated Europe can offer.<br />
<br />
<br />
Most important driving forces<br />
• Social security (Unemployment): higher unemployment leads to less European integration on the short terms, on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Employment follows GDP wroth, this is uncertain, though on the longer term demographics determine a lower unemployment rate.<br />
• Social security (pension & health payment) (19): lowered payments leads to less European integration on the short terms, on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Expectations for pension & health payments are that they will be lowered as demographics determine that the current amounts are not sustainable.<br />
• National identity (20): a higher national identity feeling lowers the need for European integration.<br />
• , on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Expectations are very uncertain<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
===Enablers:===<br />
* European legislation<br />
<br />
===Inhibitors:===<br />
* slowdown of GDP growth leads to less European integration on the short terms. On the long term Europe might recognize the value of unification<br />
<br />
* threat of terrorism slows down the European integration<br />
<br />
* the outspoken 'no' to a European constitution from France and the Netherlands slows down the integration<br />
<br />
* higher unemployment rates might lead to a dominant focus on employment of the "own people". On the long term Europe might recognize the value of a European focused economy<br />
<br />
* social security lowers the incentives for unemployed to find a new job. This decreases the<br />
<br />
===Paradigms:===<br />
<br />
===Experts:===<br />
<br />
===Timing:===<br />
<br />
===Web Resources:===</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=European_integration&diff=7397European integration2005-11-10T18:52:33Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Description:===<br />
European integration started for an important part as a reaction to the second World War, because there was nu unity, there became war. This was a political reason, where the building blocks were economic. After long years of peace and prosperity in western Europe, together with the collapse of the Soviet threat, make further European integration seem much less urgent.<br />
<br />
The very depth of the political integration achieved so far has caused something of a backlash as the EU has gained new powers that threaten deeply rooted national traditions (fields such as frontier controls and fiscal policy). Also expansion led to an increased political diversity that can often seem harmfull for a national identity. The speed of expansion strenghtens this feeling.<br />
<br />
European integration (compared to the USA) is limited by the lack of a common language, common history (leading to national identity) and the fact that Europeans citizens are homebodies (only 1,6% lives outside their home country to work or study). Immigration and often Moslim immigration also harm the feeling of national identity.<br />
<br />
People expect prosperity and jobs from Europe. The current economic downturn and need for economic reform work against European integration. Many economists think the EU has played a crucial role by creating a secure legal environment for business and enabling European companies to reap the economies of scale previously available only in the United States. This lead to to the prosperity that European citizens value so much.<br />
<br />
It will be that European citizens, facing difficult economic times and the erosion of their much-loved “European social model”, decide to put some of the blame on the Union itself. Too fast liberalisation and globalization are seen now as reasons for unemployment and a possible downturn of economy.<br />
<br />
Conclusion: <br />
The current trend to stop a European integration, fed by a feeling of losing national identity and losing prosperity could actually strengthen the downwards trend of prosperity as it is especially businesses that benefit from the economies of scale and unified legislation that an integrated Europe can offer.<br />
<br />
<br />
Most important driving forces<br />
• Social security (Unemployment): higher unemployment leads to less European integration on the short terms, on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Employment follows GDP wroth, this is uncertain, though on the longer term demographics determine a lower unemployment rate.<br />
• Social security (pension & health payment) (19): lowered payments leads to less European integration on the short terms, on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Expectations for pension & health payments are that they will be lowered as demographics determine that the current amounts are not sustainable.<br />
• National identity (20): a higher national identity feeling lowers the need for European integration.<br />
• , on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Expectations are very uncertain<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
===Enablers:===<br />
* European legislation<br />
<br />
===Inhibitors:===<br />
* slowdown of GDP growth leads to less European integration on the short terms. On the long term Europe might recognize the value of unification<br />
<br />
* threat of terrorism slows down the European integration<br />
<br />
* the outspoken 'no' to a European constitution from France and the Netherlands slows down the integration<br />
<br />
* higher unemployment rates might lead to a dominant focus on employment of the "own people". On the long term Europe might recognize the value of a European focused economy<br />
<br />
===Paradigms:===<br />
<br />
===Experts:===<br />
<br />
===Timing:===<br />
<br />
===Web Resources:===</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=European_integration&diff=7396European integration2005-11-10T18:45:14Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Description:===<br />
European integration started for an important part as a reaction to the second World War, because there was nu unity, there became war. This was a political reason, where the building blocks were economic. After long years of peace and prosperity in western Europe, together with the collapse of the Soviet threat, make further European integration seem much less urgent.<br />
<br />
The very depth of the political integration achieved so far has caused something of a backlash as the EU has gained new powers that threaten deeply rooted national traditions (fields such as frontier controls and fiscal policy). Also expansion led to an increased political diversity that can often seem harmfull for a national identity. The speed of expansion strenghtens this feeling.<br />
<br />
European integration (compared to the USA) is limited by the lack of a common language, common history (leading to national identity) and the fact that Europeans citizens are homebodies (only 1,6% lives outside their home country to work or study). Immigration and often Moslim immigration also harm the feeling of national identity.<br />
<br />
People expect prosperity and jobs from Europe. The current economic downturn and need for economic reform work against European integration. Many economists think the EU has played a crucial role by creating a secure legal environment for business and enabling European companies to reap the economies of scale previously available only in the United States. This lead to to the prosperity that European citizens value so much.<br />
<br />
It will be that European citizens, facing difficult economic times and the erosion of their much-loved “European social model”, decide to put some of the blame on the Union itself. Too fast liberalisation and globalization are seen now as reasons for unemployment and a possible downturn of economy.<br />
<br />
Conclusion: <br />
The current trend to stop a European integration, fed by a feeling of losing national identity and losing prosperity could actually strengthen the downwards trend of prosperity as it is especially businesses that benefit from the economies of scale and unified legislation that an integrated Europe can offer.<br />
<br />
<br />
Most important driving forces<br />
• Social security (Unemployment): higher unemployment leads to less European integration on the short terms, on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Employment follows GDP wroth, this is uncertain, though on the longer term demographics determine a lower unemployment rate.<br />
• Social security (pension & health payment) (19): lowered payments leads to less European integration on the short terms, on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Expectations for pension & health payments are that they will be lowered as demographics determine that the current amounts are not sustainable.<br />
• National identity (20): a higher national identity feeling lowers the need for European integration.<br />
• , on the longer term people might understand that a combined Europe is stronger that 1 country. Expectations are very uncertain<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
===Enablers:===<br />
<br />
===Inhibitors:===<br />
*GDP (21), slowdown of GDP growth leads to less European integration on the short terms<br />
<br />
===Paradigms:===<br />
<br />
===Experts:===<br />
<br />
===Timing:===<br />
<br />
===Web Resources:===</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=European_integration&diff=7395European integration2005-11-10T18:39:09Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Description:===<br />
<br />
===Enablers:===<br />
<br />
===Inhibitors:===<br />
<br />
===Paradigms:===<br />
<br />
===Experts:===<br />
<br />
===Timing:===<br />
<br />
===Web Resources:===</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Economic_Driving_Forces&diff=8065Economic Driving Forces2005-11-10T18:37:54Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[A growing market during a recession]]<br />
<br />
[[Alan Greenspan is going to finish his term in Fed]]<br />
<br />
[[Shift to Alternative Energy Sources]]<br />
<br />
[[Chinese Families' economic condition]]<br />
<br />
[[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]]<br />
<br />
[[Cost of Setting up a Wi-Fi Network ]]<br />
<br />
[[Crisis of the capitalism]]<br />
<br />
[[Declining Dollar]]<br />
<br />
[[Decrease of revenues in lowlands from national gas fields]]<br />
<br />
[[Digital Literacy]]<br />
<br />
[[E-commerce in developing countries]]<br />
<br />
[[Economic Growth in China]] <br />
<br />
[[Economics of scale]]<br />
<br />
[[Energy crisis in Asia]]<br />
<br />
[[European integration]]<br />
<br />
[[Global Labour Market]]<br />
<br />
[[Huge difference between the western and the eastern part of China]]<br />
<br />
[[Increase of IPO activity in US stock exchange market]]<br />
<br />
[[Influence of the World Trade Organization (WTO)]]<br />
<br />
[[Information Markets & Gambling]]<br />
<br />
[[Internal consumption in US]]<br />
<br />
[[Oil price]]<br />
<br />
[[Online Gaming Business]]<br />
<br />
[[Open Source]]<br />
<br />
[[Products are Turned Into Services]]<br />
<br />
[[Reduce IT-infrastructure cost]]<br />
<br />
[[Reduction of organizational and technological complexity]]<br />
<br />
[[The Increase of the United States Budget Deficit]]<br />
<br />
[[The Rise of the Long Tail]]<br />
<br />
[[UK House Prices]]<br />
<br />
[[Decrease of the relative share of the US economy in the global economy]]<br />
<br />
[[The increasing role of barter in the global economy]]<br />
<br />
[[The increasing globalization of markets]]<br />
<br />
[[The increasing gap between developed, emerging and poor economies]]<br />
<br />
[[The increasing effect of the development of technology on the global economy]]<br />
<br />
[[The effect of Brazil's economy on the global economy]]<br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces?PHPSESSID=f452a4c7c27325dcd9f66460440d3a55 >>Back>>]</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Decrease_of_Highly_Educated_Technology_Workforce&diff=7441Decrease of Highly Educated Technology Workforce2005-11-10T18:34:32Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Description:===<br />
<br />
===Enablers:===<br />
<br />
===Inhibitors:===<br />
<br />
===Paradigms:===<br />
<br />
===Experts:===<br />
<br />
===Timing:===<br />
<br />
===Web Resources:===</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7603Aging population2005-11-10T18:29:19Z<p>Ppap: /* Inhibitors: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands (Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistieken - CBS).<br />
<br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
- A global decease (certain flu) could attacks the weaker people (the elderly)<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
In order to maintain our current 'care society', an increase of tax payment and pension payment will have to be implemented. It is therefor doubtful whether the current care society can be maintain.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
- United Nations<br />
<br />
- US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
- Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7392Aging population2005-11-10T18:26:04Z<p>Ppap: /* Paradigms: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands (Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistieken - CBS).<br />
<br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
In order to maintain our current 'care society', an increase of tax payment and pension payment will have to be implemented. It is therefor doubtful whether the current care society can be maintain.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
- United Nations<br />
<br />
- US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
- Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7391Aging population2005-11-10T18:23:16Z<p>Ppap: /* Inhibitors: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands (Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistieken - CBS).<br />
<br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
- United Nations<br />
<br />
- US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
- Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7537The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T17:42:24Z<p>Ppap: /* Inhibitors: */</p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next (global) economy will be a knowledge economy. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Increasing tension of worldwide terrorist networks<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Market globalization decreasing the control on unemployment, GDP fluctuations, etc. Laws and regulations should therefor be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
If the globalization of the market leads to continents or countries which cannot compete anymore, trade barriers (= de-globalization) might be a counter reaction.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7389The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T17:41:27Z<p>Ppap: /* Paradigms: */</p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next (global) economy will be a knowledge economy. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Increasing tension of worldwide terrorist groups<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Market globalization decreasing the control on unemployment, GDP fluctuations, etc. Laws and regulations should therefor be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
If the globalization of the market leads to continents or countries which cannot compete anymore, trade barriers (= de-globalization) might be a counter reaction.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7388The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T17:38:20Z<p>Ppap: /* Inhibitors: */</p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next (global) economy will be a knowledge economy. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Increasing tension of worldwide terrorist groups<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Laws and regulations should be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
If the globalization of the market leads to continents or countries which cannot compete anymore, trade barriers (= de-globalization) might be a counter reaction.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7387The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T17:17:20Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next (global) economy will be a knowledge economy. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Increasing tension of worldwide terrorist groups<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
* Decreasing control of unemployment and GDP fluctuations<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Laws and regulations should be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
If the globalization of the market leads to continents or countries which cannot compete anymore, trade barriers (= de-globalization) might be a counter reaction.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7386The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T17:08:47Z<p>Ppap: /* Paradigms: */</p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next (global) economy will be a knowledge economy. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Increasing tension of worldwide terrorist groups<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
* Decreasing control of unemployment and GDP fluctuations<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Laws and regulations should be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
If the globalization of the market leads to continents or countries which cannot compete anymore, trade barriers (= de-globalization) might be a counter reaction.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7385The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T17:03:11Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next (global) economy will be a knowledge economy. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Increasing tension of worldwide terrorist groups<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
* Decreasing control of unemployment and GDP fluctuations<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Laws and regulations should be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7384The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T16:55:50Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next (global) economy will be a knowledge economy. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Laws and regulations should be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7383The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T16:52:11Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next society will be a knowledge society. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Laws and regulations should be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_increasing_globalization_of_markets&diff=7382The increasing globalization of markets2005-11-10T16:51:52Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div><p></p> <br />
== Draft ==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization is the growing interconnectiveness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world (p.10 NIC report Mapping the global future. Therefore the globalization of markets is the growing interconnectiveness of markets, like financial markets, labour markets, trade markets etc.<br />
<br />
The next society will be a knowledge society. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge workers will be the dominant group in its workforce. Its three main characteristics will be:<br />
o Borderlessness, because knowledge travels even more effortlessly than money.<br />
o Upward mobility, available to everyone through easily acquired formal education.<br />
o The potential for failure as well as success. Anyone can acquire the “means of production”, ie, the knowledge required for the job, but not everyone can win.<br />
<br />
The globalization is a trend which is not reversible, althought that the speed of this globalization is not decided yet.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Increase in technology especially information technology<br />
* Increasing participation of China and India in the global markets<br />
* Decreasing power of communism<br />
* Increasing power and number of global companies.<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Increasing disparity of poor and rich<br />
* Increasing difference between islamic and non-islamic countries.<br />
* Pandemic disease<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Laws and regulations should be made on a global basis.<br />
<br />
Possible decreasing power of governments and increasing power of companies, which set a totally different political and economic arena. The rules to adhere to in this situation has yet to be created.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
TBD<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
TBD</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7390Aging population2005-11-10T16:46:58Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands (Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistieken - CBS).<br />
<br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
- Increase of tax payment and pension payment<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
- United Nations<br />
<br />
- US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
- Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7380Aging population2005-11-10T16:45:21Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands.<br />
<br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
- Increase of tax payment and pension payment<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
- United Nations<br />
<br />
- US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
- Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7379Aging population2005-11-10T16:44:26Z<p>Ppap: /* Experts: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
- Increase of tax payment and pension payment<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
- United Nations<br />
<br />
- US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
- Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7378Aging population2005-11-10T16:42:47Z<p>Ppap: /* Inhibitors: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
- Increase of tax payment and pension payment<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7377Aging population2005-11-10T16:42:34Z<p>Ppap: /* Enablers: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
- Increase of tax payment and pension payment<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7376Aging population2005-11-10T16:37:28Z<p>Ppap: /* Inhibitors: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
- Increase of tax payment and pension payment<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7375Aging population2005-11-10T16:36:13Z<p>Ppap: /* Enablers: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7374Aging population2005-11-10T16:35:42Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br><br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
- More health awareness<br />
- Better food quality<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7373Aging population2005-11-10T16:35:00Z<p>Ppap: /* Enablers: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br><br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
- More health awareness<br />
- Better food quality<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7372Aging population2005-11-10T16:34:36Z<p>Ppap: /* Enablers: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
- More health awareness<br />
- Better food quality<br />
- More hostital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7371Aging population2005-11-10T16:32:08Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. The birth rate however is diminishing around the world and resources are limited. Therefore a new balance will be established.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7370Aging population2005-11-10T16:18:20Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. <br />
<br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
Aging population is the driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. Although the birth rate is diminishing around the world. Resources are limited and therefore one day they will end. <br><br />
<br><br />
The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. In the next 25 years, the percentage of people over 65 will explode and the percentage of people onder 20 will fall dramatically.[[Image:aging_population.JPG]]<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7369Aging population2005-11-10T16:17:04Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades.<br />
<br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
Aging population is the driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. Although the birth rate is diminishing around the world. Resources are limited and therefore one day they will end. <br><br />
<br><br />
Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. In the next 25 years, the percentage of people over 65 will explode and the percentage of people onder 20 will fall dramatically.[[Image:aging_population.JPG]]<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:Aging_population_2010_-_2040.jpg&diff=13726File:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg2005-11-10T16:15:35Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:Aging.jpg&diff=13725File:Aging.jpg2005-11-10T16:06:13Z<p>Ppap: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Ppaphttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=7368Aging population2005-11-10T15:50:53Z<p>Ppap: /* Description: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europa will be increasing dramatically in the coming decades.<br />
<br />
Aging population is the driving force which for example is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the advances in medicine the population of the world is living longer which means that the world needs more resources to support this population. Although the birth rate is diminishing around the world. Resources are limited and therefore one day they will end. <br><br />
<br><br />
Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands. The same trend counts for the most of Western Europe. In the next 25 years, the percentage of people over 65 will explode and the percentage of people onder 20 will fall dramatically.[[Image:aging_population.JPG]]<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
United Nations<br />
US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Ppap