https://www.scenariothinking.org/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=Dayquiri&feedformat=atomScenarioThinking - User contributions [en]2024-03-28T23:59:06ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.37.0https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Social_computing_and_user-created_innovation&diff=22915Social computing and user-created innovation2007-08-20T12:17:18Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div>''Contributed by Ester Torres and Jorge Assis from [http://www.erisa.be Eris@], the European Regional Information Society Association''<br />
<br />
==Description==<br />
<br />
“ICTs are playing an increasingly significant role in the creation and appropriation of social capital. In terms of civic engagement, they are transforming and supplementing social capital. In terms of social contact, further developments in ICTs can overcome the challenge of transferring tacit knowledge across communities of practice. As interactive and mobile ICT infrastructures become widely available, they transform the ways social capital is generated and appropriated. This has profound impacts on society and the economy. (…)A prospective glimpse suggests that this influence of ICTs will only increase.(…) In order to emphasize the fact that certain aspects of social capital are specifically shaped by ICTs, networked social capital emerges as a useful term.” <br />
<br>''[http://www.jrc.es/home/report/english/articles/vol85/ICT4E856.htm ICT – Enabled Changes in Social Capital]''<br />
<br />
<br />
“Over the last few years, we have witnessed the impressive growth of several user-driven applications such as blogs, podcasts, wikis, social networking Web sites, search engines, auction Web sites, games, and VoIP and peer-to-peer services. Together, they are referred to as Internet 2.0 based technologies or social computing, as they exploit the Internet’s connectivity dimension to support the networking of relevant people and content. (…)<br />
Most Internet 2.0 applications have embraced the power of the Web to harness collective intelligence. Users are becoming much more deeply involved in the process of production and service innovation.(…) Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed. As a direct result, markets are getting smarter — and getting smarter faster than most companies.<br />
(…) While innovation is now recognized as a key dimension of a country’s competitiveness, over the last few years the important role of users in the innovation process has emerged. (…) Within the context of ICT, (…) innovation is inherently a social process grounded in social practices, largely driven by communities of users, and provides insight into how the very recombination of existing resources is a key dimension of innovation. This is clearly visible in social computing applications, largely using content syndication.<br />
(…) The social relevance of these trends appears clear. They affect the way people find information, learn, share, communicate and consume and the way businesses do business. Throughout, an emphasis can be detected on interpersonal communication and on the role of the user as a supplier or co-producer of the service (content, taste, contacts, reputation, relevance, physical goods, but also software, connectivity and storage). In economic terms, these trends are already having a visible impact: new players and markets provide significant threats and opportunities for the ICT and media industries, and the new applications are increasingly used for professional purposes.”<br />
<br>''[http://www.firstmonday.org/issues/issue12_3/pascu/index.html The potential disruptive impact of Internet 2 based technologies]''<br />
<br />
<br />
"Pro-Ams play an increasingly critical economic role, particularly as a source of innovation. (…) Disruptive innovation often starts in marginal, experimental markets rather than mainstream mass markets. Embryonic markets are often too small to sustain traditional approaches to R & D.<br />
(…) This challenges the traditional assumptions of public policy that innovation starts in R & D labs (…). Traditional innovation policies subsidise R & D and accelerate the transmission of ideas down the pipeline and into the market. Pro-Ams are helping to turn this closed model on its head. In mobile phones, media, computer games and software, ideas are flowing back up the pipeline from avid users to the technology producers. Pro-Ams should play a much larger role in innovation policy. Lead users should play a larger role in foresight exercises to chart the future course of innovation, and policies to deregulate markets should also open up spaces for Pro-Am innovations. Pro-Am communities are the new R & D labs of the digital economy."<br />
<br>''[http://www.demos.co.uk/files/proamrevolutionfinal.pdf The Pro-Am revolution]''<br />
<br />
<br />
"Together Social Networking, Open Source and p2p will disrupt more areas of social life as users self-organise to form “communities of practice” with other like-minded individuals. These highly adaptive swarms will force media and entertainment monopolies to re-evaluate value creation, change politics through blogs (…), impact business through boycotts, and develop new modes of innovation through what Benkler describes as ‘commons-based peer production’ (…) users ought to be central to strategic thinking about what kind of an Internet might emerge (…) and how related innovation is best fashioned. This viewpoint is made in the multiple contexts of commercial, economic, social and cultural perspectives."<br />
<br>''[http://smartinternet.com.au/ArticleDocuments/121/Smart-Internet-2010.pdf.aspx Smart Internet 2010 Report]''<br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
<br />
# Broadband availability (at low costs) and digital literacy<br />
# Data processing and storage improved capacities at low costs<br />
# Open Source Software and increased capabilities for end-users customization and re-development<br />
# Collaborative and participative culture in web-based environments by younger generations<br />
# Increased connectivity of Pro-Ams and Communities of practice on global scale<br />
# Facilitating regulatory initiatives on Intelectual property – eg Creative Commons<br />
# Ageing (with health and wealth) society – life beyond employment <br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
<br />
# Persistent digital divides (both in terms of infrastructure access and digital literacy)<br />
# Intellectual property regulatory environment <br />
# Innovation-killer initiatives from Industry monopolies (eg. DRM)<br />
# Institutional inertia to change (both private and public)<br />
# Unequal involvement of all societal groups (eg – women, low income/education classes, people with special needs, older people)<br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
<br />
# In the context of the information and knowledge based economy, innovation generation is a major activity across all industries and is no longer restricted to R&D laboratories.<br />
# The ways in which software developers and end users use the web as a platform is rapidly changing<br />
# “ ‘social software’ has brought about three dramatic changes - one in the way that technologies are designed, one in the way that participation spreads, and one in the way that people behave.” (''[http://www.danah.org/papers/BlogTalksReloaded.pdf The Significance of Social Software]'')<br />
# “We have come from an era since the mid 1990s of an Internet developers’ playground and have now moved into a communications environment that has become increasing driven by the complexities of users preferences, both commercially and socially.” (''[http://smartinternet.com.au/ArticleDocuments/121/Smart-Internet-2010.pdf.aspx Smart Internet 2010 Report]'')<br />
# “The widespread take-up of broadband, increased media literacy and user sophistication in advanced economies is enabling the development of Internet-based services that feature user-led innovation, group-formation, many-to-many communications and peer collaboration.” (''[http://smartinternet.com.au/ArticleDocuments/121/P07_038_paper.pdf.aspx Digital Lifestyles Monitor]'')<br />
# “User-created content (UCC) is already an important economic phenomenon despite its originally noncommercial context. The spread of UCC and the amount of attention devoted to it by users appears to be a significant disruptive force for how content is created and consumed and for traditional content suppliers.” (''[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/14/38393115.pdf Participative Web: User-created content]'')<br />
# "Early adopters have begun a move away from traditional media sources to rely on trusted sources in their network of friends, family and fellow travellers for reviews, feedback, and advice about the latest product or service. By 2010 these empowered consumers will form ad-hoc lobbies with formidable power to influence the fate of brands, companies, and products that fail to deliver value, quality, and maintain ethical standards." (''[http://smartinternet.com.au/ArticleDocuments/121/Smart-Internet-2010.pdf.aspx Smart Internet 2010 Report]'')<br />
<br />
==Experts==<br />
<br />
David Osimo, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, European Commission Joint Research Centre<br />
<br />
Graham Vickery and Sacha Wunsch-Vincent, OECD’s Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing==<br />
<br />
1983: Richard Stallman launches the concept of GNU operating system<br />
<br />
1986: Eric von Hippel introduces the lead user method that can be used to systematically learn about user innovation in order to apply it in new product development.<br />
<br />
1991: Linus Torvalds posted the source code for his new operating system on the internet – LINUX - and asked all enthusiasts for improvements and self-developments<br />
1997: The first social network site is launched – SixDegrees.com (closed in 2000)<br />
<br />
2001: Wikipedia service is launched<br />
<br />
2003: MySpace is launched; Del.icio.us is launched; Second Life is launched; Skype p2p telephony service is launched <br />
<br />
2004: Flickr is launched<br />
<br />
2005: YouTube is launched<br />
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<br />
<br />
==Web resources==<br />
<br />
The Significance of Social Software<br />
http://www.danah.org/papers/BlogTalksReloaded.pdf <br />
<br />
The potential disruptive impact of internet 2 based technologies<br />
http://www.firstmonday.org/issues/issue12_3/pascu/index.html <br />
<br />
ICT-Enabled Changes in Social Capital<br />
http://www.jrc.es/home/report/english/articles/vol85/ICT4E856.htm <br />
<br />
Democratizing Innovation<br />
http://web.mit.edu/evhippel/www/democ1.htm <br />
<br />
Smart Internet 2010 Report<br />
http://smartinternet.com.au/ArticleDocuments/121/Smart-Internet-2010.pdf.aspx <br />
<br />
Participative Web: User-Created Content<br />
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/14/38393115.pdf <br />
<br />
We Think:why mass creativity is the next big thing (Full Draft)<br />
http://www.wethinkthebook.net/cms/site/docs/charles%20full%20draft.pdf <br />
<br />
The Pro-Am Revolution: How enthusiasts are changing our economy and society<br />
http://www.demos.co.uk/files/proamrevolutionfinal.pdf<br />
<br />
Digital Lifestyles Monitor<br />
http://smartinternet.com.au/ArticleDocuments/121/P07_038_paper.pdf.aspx <br />
<br />
Open Innovation & Crowdsourcing: Edition I<br />
http://www.openinnovators.net/open-innovation-crowdsourcing-edition-i/<br />
<br />
Kiss 5000 Frogs<br />
http://www.crowdsourcingdirectory.com/?p=14<br />
<br />
Web 2.0: The Power Behind the Hype<br />
http://www.uie.com/articles/web_2_power/ <br />
<br />
Beyond the Hype: How Content and Technology are Redefining Media<br />
http://www.accenture.com/Global/Research_and_Insights/Accenture_Blogs/Accenture_High_Performance_Business_Blog/Beyond+the+Hype+How+Content+and+Technology+are+Redefining+Media.htm <br />
<br />
Change Agents With The Balls: The Rise Of The Amateur Professionals, Prosumers, Pro-Ams<br />
http://www.masternewmedia.org/2005/06/16/change_agents_with_the_balls.htm <br />
<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
<br />
Barr, T., Burns A., Sharp, D.(2005) “Smart Internet 2010 Report”<br />
<br />
Boyd, D. (2007) “The Significance of Social Software” <br />
<br />
Leadbeater, C., Miller, P., (2004) “The Pro-Am Revolution”<br />
<br />
Pascu, C., Osimo, D., Ulbrich, M., Turlea, G., Burgelman, J.C. (2007) “The potential disruptive impact of Internet 2 based technologies”<br />
<br />
Sharp, D. (2007) “Digital Lifestyles Monitor”<br />
<br />
Wunsch-Vincent, S., Graham, V. (2007) “Participative Web: User-created content”, OECD<br />
<br />
Van Bavel, R., Punie, Y., Tuomi, I.(2005) “ICT – Enabled Changes in Social Capital”, IPTS</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_2007_Driving_Forces&diff=22914CiNum 2007 Driving Forces2007-08-20T12:00:44Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Politics, regulation, geopolitics */</p>
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<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > Driving Forces</small><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''''If you need help: [[Identifying and describing "Driving Forces"|What are Driving Forces and How to build them? >>]]'''''<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Science and technology==<br />
<br />
# [[Ubiquitous computing and networking]]<br><br />
# [[Virtual and augmented reality]]<br><br />
# [[Artificial intelligence]]<br><br />
# [[Quantum computing]]<br><br />
# [[Nanotechnology]]<br><br />
# [[Biotechnology]]<br><br />
# [[Neuroscience, cognitive science]]<br><br />
# [[Augmented body, transformed body]]<br><br />
# [[Complexity]]<br><br />
# [[Social computing and user-created innovation]]<br />
# [[Relationship between society and science, progress, technology]]<br><br />
<br />
==Society==<br />
<br />
# [[Aging population in the West]]<br><br />
# [[Urbanization and Mobility]]<br><br />
# [[Changing social patterns with digital technologies]]<br><br />
# [[Healthcare]]<br><br />
# [[Education and TIC]]<br><br />
# [[Media Cultures]]<br><br />
# [[Coping with global warming]]<br><br />
# [[Religion]]<br><br />
<br />
==Economy, Environment and Energy==<br />
<br />
# [[Global, Financial Capitalism and its discontents]]<br><br />
# [[New value creation processes]]<br><br />
# [[Sustainable development]]<br><br />
# [[Research and Innovation investments, abilities, methods]]<br><br />
<br />
==Politics, regulation, geopolitics==<br />
<br />
# [[Economic and political globalization]]<br><br />
# [[War and conflicts: local, global, pervasive?]]<br><br />
# [[Immigration]]<br><br />
# [[European integration]]<br><br />
# [[China and India as major superpowers?]]<br><br />
# [[Future of democracy]]<br></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_2007_Driving_Forces&diff=22913CiNum 2007 Driving Forces2007-08-20T12:00:26Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Economy, Environment and Energy */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > Driving Forces</small><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''''If you need help: [[Identifying and describing "Driving Forces"|What are Driving Forces and How to build them? >>]]'''''<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Science and technology==<br />
<br />
# [[Ubiquitous computing and networking]]<br><br />
# [[Virtual and augmented reality]]<br><br />
# [[Artificial intelligence]]<br><br />
# [[Quantum computing]]<br><br />
# [[Nanotechnology]]<br><br />
# [[Biotechnology]]<br><br />
# [[Neuroscience, cognitive science]]<br><br />
# [[Augmented body, transformed body]]<br><br />
# [[Complexity]]<br><br />
# [[Social computing and user-created innovation]]<br />
# [[Relationship between society and science, progress, technology]]<br><br />
<br />
==Society==<br />
<br />
# [[Aging population in the West]]<br><br />
# [[Urbanization and Mobility]]<br><br />
# [[Changing social patterns with digital technologies]]<br><br />
# [[Healthcare]]<br><br />
# [[Education and TIC]]<br><br />
# [[Media Cultures]]<br><br />
# [[Coping with global warming]]<br><br />
# [[Religion]]<br><br />
<br />
==Economy, Environment and Energy==<br />
<br />
# [[Global, Financial Capitalism and its discontents]]<br><br />
# [[New value creation processes]]<br><br />
# [[Sustainable development]]<br><br />
# [[Research and Innovation investments, abilities, methods]]<br><br />
<br />
==Politics, regulation, geopolitics==<br />
<br />
23. [[Economic and political globalization]]<br><br />
24. [[War and conflicts: local, global, pervasive?]]<br><br />
25. [[Immigration]]<br><br />
26. [[European integration]]<br><br />
27. [[China and India as major superpowers?]]<br><br />
28. [[Future of democracy]]<br></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_2007_Driving_Forces&diff=22912CiNum 2007 Driving Forces2007-08-20T12:00:01Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Society */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > Driving Forces</small><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''''If you need help: [[Identifying and describing "Driving Forces"|What are Driving Forces and How to build them? >>]]'''''<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Science and technology==<br />
<br />
# [[Ubiquitous computing and networking]]<br><br />
# [[Virtual and augmented reality]]<br><br />
# [[Artificial intelligence]]<br><br />
# [[Quantum computing]]<br><br />
# [[Nanotechnology]]<br><br />
# [[Biotechnology]]<br><br />
# [[Neuroscience, cognitive science]]<br><br />
# [[Augmented body, transformed body]]<br><br />
# [[Complexity]]<br><br />
# [[Social computing and user-created innovation]]<br />
# [[Relationship between society and science, progress, technology]]<br><br />
<br />
==Society==<br />
<br />
# [[Aging population in the West]]<br><br />
# [[Urbanization and Mobility]]<br><br />
# [[Changing social patterns with digital technologies]]<br><br />
# [[Healthcare]]<br><br />
# [[Education and TIC]]<br><br />
# [[Media Cultures]]<br><br />
# [[Coping with global warming]]<br><br />
# [[Religion]]<br><br />
<br />
==Economy, Environment and Energy==<br />
<br />
19. [[Global, Financial Capitalism and its discontents]]<br><br />
20. [[New value creation processes]]<br><br />
21. [[Sustainable development]]<br><br />
22. [[Research and Innovation investments, abilities, methods]]<br><br />
<br />
==Politics, regulation, geopolitics==<br />
<br />
23. [[Economic and political globalization]]<br><br />
24. [[War and conflicts: local, global, pervasive?]]<br><br />
25. [[Immigration]]<br><br />
26. [[European integration]]<br><br />
27. [[China and India as major superpowers?]]<br><br />
28. [[Future of democracy]]<br></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_2007_Driving_Forces&diff=22911CiNum 2007 Driving Forces2007-08-20T11:59:29Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Science and technology */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > Driving Forces</small><br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''''If you need help: [[Identifying and describing "Driving Forces"|What are Driving Forces and How to build them? >>]]'''''<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Science and technology==<br />
<br />
# [[Ubiquitous computing and networking]]<br><br />
# [[Virtual and augmented reality]]<br><br />
# [[Artificial intelligence]]<br><br />
# [[Quantum computing]]<br><br />
# [[Nanotechnology]]<br><br />
# [[Biotechnology]]<br><br />
# [[Neuroscience, cognitive science]]<br><br />
# [[Augmented body, transformed body]]<br><br />
# [[Complexity]]<br><br />
# [[Social computing and user-created innovation]]<br />
# [[Relationship between society and science, progress, technology]]<br><br />
<br />
==Society==<br />
<br />
11. [[Aging population in the West]]<br><br />
12. [[Urbanization and Mobility]]<br><br />
13. [[Changing social patterns with digital technologies]]<br><br />
14. [[Healthcare]]<br><br />
15. [[Education and TIC]]<br><br />
16. [[Media Cultures]]<br><br />
17. [[Coping with global warming]]<br><br />
18. [[Religion]]<br><br />
<br />
==Economy, Environment and Energy==<br />
<br />
19. [[Global, Financial Capitalism and its discontents]]<br><br />
20. [[New value creation processes]]<br><br />
21. [[Sustainable development]]<br><br />
22. [[Research and Innovation investments, abilities, methods]]<br><br />
<br />
==Politics, regulation, geopolitics==<br />
<br />
23. [[Economic and political globalization]]<br><br />
24. [[War and conflicts: local, global, pervasive?]]<br><br />
25. [[Immigration]]<br><br />
26. [[European integration]]<br><br />
27. [[China and India as major superpowers?]]<br><br />
28. [[Future of democracy]]<br></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Cinum&diff=22910Cinum2007-08-20T09:26:37Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><center>[[Image:Cinum07.jpg]]</center><br><br />
__NOTOC__<br />
<center><big>'''CI'NUM 2007 - THE DIGITAL CIVILIZATIONS FORUM'''<br />
<br>'''COLLABORATIVE SCENARIO THINKING SPACE - HORIZON: 2030'''</big></center><br><br />
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<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''ABOUT CI'NUM'''</span></big></center><br><br />
<br />
'''Ci'Num is a global, multicultural, 3-year foresight process which intends to shed a new light on the future of our digital civilizations''', taking into account geopolitical, cultural and economic differences. Our focus is :<br />
*on the specific contribution of, and challenges related to, the emergence of ubiquitous and "intimate" technologies stemming from the convergence between nanotech, biotech, IT and cognitive science;<br />
*on the social appropriation and production of technology;<br />
* and on the ways, tools and methods through which we become ''empowered to shape our personal and collective futures'' - i.e., ''not'' on figuring out the most likely futures, but in recognizing uncertainties and looking for ways to maximize choices and opportunities in any given future.<br />
<br><br />
'''2007: The final leg of a 3-year process'''<br />
<br />
[http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2005 Ci'Num 2005] was about stock-taking on scientific and technical advances, globalization and its challenges, diversity and social evolution.<br />
<br />
[http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/22.shtml Ci'Num 2006] centered around storybuilding: What are the possible futures of digital civilizations? What do these futures hinge upon? What new questions emerge from this story-telling?<br />
<br />
''Ci'Num 2007 is about making choices and decisions:'' How can we imagine and be empowered to build our own paths towards the future , despite all the constraints, the uncertainties, all that could legitimately worry us into inaction - or submission?<br />
<br />
<br><br />
'''Past editions'''<br />
* October 6-7, 2005 : [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2005 Conquests and Conflicts]<br />
* October 6-7, 2006 : [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/22.shtml Visions of the Future]<br />
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</div><br />
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<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''TAKE PART IN BUILDING CINUM'S 2030 SCENARIOS'''</span></big></center><br><br />
<br />
*'''[[CiNum 2007 Driving Forces|Contribute to defining and describing the "Driving Forces" that will determine much of 2030]]'''<br />
<br><br />
*'''[[CiNum 2030 scenarios|Read, edit, contribute to the 4 scenarios]]'''<br />
<br><br />
*'''[[CiNum Interviews|Read interviews of leading thinkers]]'''<br><br><br><br />
<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''PARTICIPATE IN CI'NUM 2007'S MAIN EVENT'''<br />
'''Margaux (France), October 5-7, 2007</span></big></center><br><br />
Information, program and registration on [http://www.cinum.org Ci'Num's official website].<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<center>[[image:Relais_margaux.jpg|300px|Relais Margaux]]</center><br />
<br><br><br />
<br><br />
''Ci'Num is organised by [http://www.aecom.org/ Aquitaine Europe Communication] (AEC) in association with [http://www.fing.org FING](France's "Next-Generation Internet Foundation") and the [http://www.dtn.net Digital Thinking Network].''<br />
<br><br><br><br><br></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_3:_New_enlightenment&diff=22908Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment2007-08-02T17:15:42Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Consciousness */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
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<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''Yes'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? - '''Resources'''<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario3_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
=Full scenario=<br />
<br />
The true impact of the 2008 Beijing Olympics was not quite what China expected. China had expected the world to stand in awe of its accomplishments, and it had every reason to. But the world chose to question how so many formerly unknown Chinese athletes could reap so many medals; tourists and journalists travelled around and brought back reports of polluted rivers, of dangerous chemical factories operating in the middle of newly built cities, of massive expropriations and exploitation; whereas 10 marathon runners almost suffocated in Beijing's hot and toxic air.<br />
<br />
None of this should have surprised keen observers, but billions of people had it thrown in their face right between a 100 m race and the gymnastics final. And it got them thinking: Is ''this'' what the world is turning into? Which was, of course, what a small group of Chinese intellectuals and entrepreneurs, with connections at the very top of the Communist Party, had in mind.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Consciousness==<br />
<br />
Media, bloggers and common citizens began connecting facts. Oil had passed $ 150 a barrel, pushing gasoline and other prices up, pulling growth down. Seemingly aberrant and local climate events, such as near-tropical rains in Britain while Europe's South-East suffered draughts and scorching heat, began to form a pattern. The web was abuzz. People started collecting, sharing and cross-analyzing data in innovative ways; papers and analyses, some serious, some not, circulated and made their way into traditional media; climate specialists opened up some of their models for public use and even, improvement. One provocative website, SUVtheplanet.org, asked its visitors to expose anyone's, from their neighbour's to celebrities', irresponsible environmental behaviours, forcing many individuals and some corporations to issue public apologies and commitment to better practices.<br />
<br />
Barak Obama was quick to feel the shift in public feeling. He brought AL Gore onboard his campaign trail, switched his pitch from Iraq to environment – and won the November 2008 U.S. presidential election.<br />
<br />
As soon as he took office, Obama boosted the second round of Kyoto discussions, actively driving them to a conclusion at the end of 2009. Europe and all other G8 countries committed to halving their CO2 emissions by 2050, and to meeting again 5 years down the road in order to consider more ambitious goals. For the first time, most emerging economies and developing countries (China being the exception) also agreed to CO2 emission reductions, under the condition that developed countries would provide financial help, technology transfer and more importantly, open up their markets - which they mostly did. The Doha trade negotiation cycle was reopened and made swift progress, despite strong protests in the West. Within one year, 183 countries had signed the Kyoto II protocol.<br />
<br />
In political circles, "Green" had become a passport to election. Everybody came up with their new idea: SUVs were banned from several cities and states, private swimming pools were heavily taxed, garbage recycling was made mandatory, climatization became subject to strict rules. Public R&D funding was reoriented towards sustainability, with a focus on quick and visible results: Renewable energy, energy efficiency, resource-efficient and nutrient genetically modified plants and animals, ecosystem modelling, next-generation nuclear energy, etc.<br />
<br />
Corporations followed suit. All large corporations published environmental commitments and many were serious about fulfilling them. Smaller corporations and developing country firms, though, had more difficulties and often complained this move was another way of putting pressure on subcontractors or of closing the door to smaller competitors.<br />
<br />
Of course, not everybody liked that new environmental bias. Free market advocates warned that this surge in regulatory activity would stifle growth and might produce consequences worse than the problems they were supposed to solve. Oil producers, who had until then been investing heavily in new extraction methods, planning on continued growth of demand, started worrying. Their lobbying efforts against ecotaxes were made difficult by the general feeling that they were at least (and in some cases, politically) morally responsible for the state of the planet – and indeed, California passed an ecotax in 2012, followed by the EU in 2013.<br />
<br />
So when a series of deadly bombs went off almost simultaneously in capitals that were all part of the spearheading group of "enlightened" countries (as they called themselves), including London on the eve of the 2012 Olympics closure, killing more than 4,000 people… well, there were serious doubts as to where the decision and the means of execution came from. London's Olympics were to be the first "carbon-neutral" major sports event; Rome, the second targeted city, was a leading proponent of the European ecotax; San Francisco was the third and Delhi the fourth, a few months after the Indian government had announced its plans to lead a second "Green revolution" in the third world, this time mixing agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability – and with a strong focus on agrofuels.<br />
<br />
==Paradigm Shifts==<br />
<br />
While the usual immediate consequences of such attacks unfolded – stock market crashes, sharp reduction in air travel, security measures than soon became permanent, economic ripple effects… – a most unexpected thing happened: Governments did not budge and renewed their commitments to greener growth.<br />
<br />
Travel restrictions were converted into an opportunity to "Move less, do more", as UN ambassador Bono put it. In spite of intense lobbying by airlines and the aerospace industry, air travel was severely taxed and caps were imposed on air traffic towards several major destinations. As a substitute, governments and foundations encouraged research on "lifelike" remote communications and installed life-size teleconferencing rooms in developed and developing country metropolis alike, encouraging people to tele-act rather than move as much as possible. Results were initially mixed, but with the right financial incentives and penalties in place, as well as the progress in rich sensory interfaces, telework, telepresence and other forms of remote communications slowly picked up. Virtual universes that had spun off in different parts of the world started connecting through a "Metaverse", to become one of the most powerful means of organizing remote interactions and public forums with a real sense of common presence.<br />
<br />
Managed by a deeply reorganized World Bank and funded through a special contribution by developed countries, the "Oil Severance Project" was launched. Its goal was to design and co-finance large-scale projects with the potential to make countries or industries less dependent on fossil energy: very large wind farms or solar panel fields, experimental sea-bottom turbines, ultra-fast train networks. The "New Paradigms in Resource Production and Use" research programme was another major international initiative, looking for out-of-the-box ideas for industrial processes and transportations that would use less energy and resources and produce less emissions and permanent waste. One of the programme's rules was that results should be public and open-source.<br />
<br />
After some tough discussions, and not a few resignations, among its economists, the IMF and the World Bank even adopted the Human Development Index as a key indicator, and started linking all financing activities to total cost calculations, including environmental and social externalities.<br />
<br />
A "Climate Solidarity Fund" was also created in 2013, and came to immediate use when cyclones of unprecedented strength, following an unusually wet rainy season, hit Bangladesh, killing or displacing millions and ruining most of the country's infrastructure. Coordinated by the UN's Fast Response Corps created along with the Fund, public and NGO relief actions worked miracles, although some areas would remain inhabitable for decades.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Organization==<br />
<br />
Such a turnaround in human affairs required some organizing.<br />
<br />
The UN was only too happy to provide its basis, although governments also insisted on creating two separate, hopefully leaner and meaner, international agencies: ClimaPlan, dealing with climate change, NoWaste, dealing with CO2 emissions, pollution and waste, and PowerShift, dealing with renewable energy and energy efficiency. These agencies were given real supranational powers to enforce decisions, and fund large-scale projects. "Oil Severance" was succeeded by two programmes, "Factor 4" – taking into account the Kyoto III discussions, which were looking at a 75% reduction in emissions over 2007 levels by 2060 – and "Emergency Readiness" – designed to forecast, detect and manage extreme climate-related catastrophes and their aftermath. But perhaps the most innovative (and controversial) decision was to give these agencies some supervisory power over national, local or corporate environmental regulations and programmes.<br />
<br />
The counterpart to these powers was extreme accountability. All the agencies' internal information, all their emails, were open to public scrutiny, each of their activities had its own discussion plaza on the Metaverse, to which thousands of lobbies, groups and private citizens contributed at least occasionally.<br />
<br />
The third Doha cycle on international trade finally produced an agreement in 2022, 21 years after its launch. The agreement included the abandon of most Least Advanced Countries' debts, the dismantlement of agricultural subsidies in developed countries (including the EU's Common Agricultural Policy), the opening of northern market to products from the South. Perhaps its most innovative provision was a clear encouragement to "offshoring" of service-related activities, seen as a way to help developing countries the resource-hungry industrial development phase – and possibly, to relieve migratory pressures, so that developed countries could more easily set up immigration quotas based on their needs and common training & co-development programmes.<br />
<br />
R&D was mostly coordinated internationally according to globally defined priorities: genetically modified organisms that displayed desirable characteristics (resistance, frugality) or properties (e.g., CO2 absorption), preventive and proactive medicine, resource efficiency, smart processes and logistics, smart transport systems, rich remote communications, complex system modelling… Most of this research was entirely public and open-source. However, a side effect of globally centralized funding was a lack of diversity and of openness to small projects or out-of-the-box thinking. This became worse when, after the fast deployment of insufficiently tested plants had wiped out the agriculture of a whole Indian state, Ethics and Evaluation Committees were created everywhere and given veto power on research projects as well as on testing and industry transfer.<br />
<br />
To facilitate and equalize international discussions, Esperanto was relaunched and became the UN's official language… for some time, after which it became clear that "International English" would not be displaced anytime soon, especially since electronic translators had become so efficient.<br />
<br />
While the system seemed to organize itself well enough at global and regional levels, the issue remained to make it work at an individual level. National governments were either too remote, or too discredited, or both. In spite of strong opposition by governments, another level of governance soon emerged, which came to be called "guilds". A "guild" could be a commune, a neighbourhood, a parish, a corporation, an association, an organized ethnic minority or even an extended family – meaning that an individual could belong to several guilds. It would have a charter, an organization, leadership, rules for membership, mechanisms for making and enforcing decisions, and relationships to other guilds – to be considered a guild, you had to be recognized by a number of other guilds. Depending on a number of criteria, guilds could be devolved some regulatory power or some tax money. Through them, the virtuous mechanisms decided at global and national levels were adapted to local realities and enforced.<br />
<br />
In many countries, individuals and corporations (at least the mid- to large-size ones) were also given "Carbon Footprint Accounts" that tracked their energy consumption, their direct and indirect carbon emissions, their recycling behaviours, etc., with financial incentives or penalties attached. While individual accounts were of course protected, those of corporations and of public bodies were publicly accessible. A consumer could even scan a product in a shop with her mobile in order to check its producer's current Footprint status. Guilds were often in charge of emitting and controlling the accounts, consolidating data and enforcing financial mechanisms. The devolved budget they received was itself indexed on their collective performance.<br />
<br />
==Overregulation==<br />
<br />
Spectacular results were achieved, although the system could sometimes take things a little too far. Overall, CO2 emissions in 2025 were already 20% below their 2007 levels in Europe, and 15% in the U.S. The economy kept growing – although slower than before 2008 –, but energy sources were moving away from fossil fuels slightly faster than expected.<br />
<br />
That same year, Mexico city – formerly one of the world's most polluted capitals – finalized a 10-year internationally financed pilot project and became the world's first carbon-neutral metropolis with a new high-density centre connected via fast public transport to smaller, dense suburban nodes, made up of energy-positive buildings and surrounded by protected green areas. In the rest of the country, 75% of the land became nature parks. While the American Teleworkers in Mexico Guild hailed the move, peasants resisted it by violent means, with almost public backing from the FreeLife Guild.<br />
<br />
By that time, most armies were federated into multinational forces of different specialties. Their main concern was the small number of "rogue states", usually oil producing autocracies who became havens for mafias and terrorist groups. The 2027 invasion of Azerbaijan by UN forces provided clear data on these unholy alliances. However, terrorist attacks had by then become a fact of life and, due to reasonably effective controls on technologies for weapons of mass destruction, the damage they produced was unable to destabilize the world. A much smaller multinational force was also called upon to contain the Mexican peasant revolt, but this intervention created a certain uneasiness among international public opinion.<br />
<br />
In fact, the most destabilizing factor had become the world's almost excessive stability.<br />
<br />
As an example, the emphasis on healthy living, responsible behaviour and preventive care focused a lot of researchers on mind enhancements, on increasing life expectancies and on detecting all possible anomalies in embryos. In 2030, reaching 120 was no longer considered as exceptional, nor as bad luck. In fact, it was harder to be young. The financial burden of paying for retirement had become lighter after old-age activity became generalized. But the world was designed by old people (who, through embryo selection and other gene manipulations, even designed part of their own young) for old people, and these individuals, being rightly proud of their achievements, were unready to hand the reins to possibly less reasonable generations.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Projection==<br />
<br />
Youth unrest expressed itself in more and more visible ways. One of the most symbolic moments happened during the 20th ECOncert at the Stade de France in August 2030, when the videofeed of Bob Geldof's concert was hacked with images of cigarettes and whisky glasses (both substances having been classified as drugs in most places), of couch potato avatars watching avatars watching an elderly Geldof and other "I'm bored!" messages.<br />
<br />
With that in mind, Toronto, Seoul and Curitiba (Brazil), soon followed by other cities, reorganized in order to reconcile common rules with differentiated lifestyles. Cities would manage a common infrastructure grid and planning agency and devolve neighbourhood matters – under closely supervised rules and indicators – to local guilds. Young people (or those who consider themselves as such) would have their own space, ageless "transhumans" or New Buddhists could live by their own standards, etc. The cities made sure that some common rules were set and followed, provided interfaces and common spaces as well as 3D virtual forums, while guilds ensured individual compliance to common and specific rules.<br />
<br />
Africa also felt the need to make itself heard. The continent had benefited from the changes, but hardly as much as other countries. The world powers' priority was clearly on reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions and Africa, at its current state of development, was no big player – hence no big problem and no big priority – in that regard. By the end on the 2020s, African countries started to threaten to leave the UN and abstract themselves from common rules, if they were not to benefit from them as much as Asia or South America had done. The issue of economic development remained partially unsolved.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
=Amplify, comment and contribute!=<br />
<br />
You can do that, either by editing the above text, or by providing comments and ideas below.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_3:_New_enlightenment&diff=22907Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment2007-08-02T17:14:23Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Organization */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''Yes'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? - '''Resources'''<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario3_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
=Full scenario=<br />
<br />
The true impact of the 2008 Beijing Olympics was not quite what China expected. China had expected the world to stand in awe of its accomplishments, and it had every reason to. But the world chose to question how so many formerly unknown Chinese athletes could reap so many medals; tourists and journalists travelled around and brought back reports of polluted rivers, of dangerous chemical factories operating in the middle of newly built cities, of massive expropriations and exploitation; whereas 10 marathon runners almost suffocated in Beijing's hot and toxic air.<br />
<br />
None of this should have surprised keen observers, but billions of people had it thrown in their face right between a 100 m race and the gymnastics final. And it got them thinking: Is ''this'' what the world is turning into? Which was, of course, what a small group of Chinese intellectuals and entrepreneurs, with connections at the very top of the Communist Party, had in mind.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Consciousness==<br />
<br />
Media, bloggers and common citizens began connecting facts. Oil had passed $ 150 a barrel, pushing gasoline and other prices up, pulling growth down. Seemingly aberrant and local climate events, such as near-tropical rains in Britain while Europe's South-East suffered draughts and scorching heat, began to form a pattern. The web was abuzz. People started collecting, sharing and cross-analyzing data in innovative ways; papers and analyses, some serious, some not, circulated and made their way into traditional media; climate specialists opened up some of their models for public use and even, improvement. One provocative website, SUVtheplanet.org, asked its visitors to expose anyone's, from their neighbour's to celebrities', irresponsible environmental behaviours, forcing many individuals and some corporations to issue public apologies and commitment to better practices.<br />
<br />
Barak Obama was quick to feel the shift in public feeling. He brought AL Gore onboard his campaign trail, switched his pitch from Iraq to environment – and won the November 2008 U.S. presidential election.<br />
<br />
As soon as he took office, Obama boosted the second round of Kyoto discussions, actively driving them to a conclusion at the end of 2009. Europe and all other G8 countries committed to halving their CO2 emissions by 2050, and to meeting again 5 years down the road in order to consider more ambitious goals. For the first time, most emerging economies and developing countries (China being the exception) also agreed to CO2 emission reductions, under the condition that developed countries would provide financial help, technology transfer and more importantly, opened up their markets - which they mostly did. The Doha trade negotiation cycle was reopened and made swift progress, despite strong protests in the West. Within one year, 183 countries had signed the Kyoto II protocol.<br />
<br />
In political circles, "Green" had become a passport to election. Everybody came up with their new idea: SUVs were banned from several cities and states, private swimming pools were heavily taxed, garbage recycling was made mandatory, climatization became subject to strict rules. Public R&D funding was reoriented towards sustainability, with a focus on quick and visible results: Renewable energy, energy efficiency, resource-efficient and nutrient genetically modified plants and animals, ecosystem modelling, next-generation nuclear energy, etc.<br />
<br />
Corporations followed suit. All large corporations published environmental commitments and many were serious about fulfilling them. Smaller corporations and developing country firms, though, had more difficulties and often complained this move was another way of putting pressure on subcontractors or of closing the door to smaller competitors.<br />
<br />
Of course, not everybody liked that new environmental bias. Free market advocates warned that this surge in regulatory activity would stifle growth and might produce consequences worse than the problems they were supposed to solve. Oil producers, who had until then been investing heavily in new extraction methods, planning on continued growth of demand, started worrying. Their lobbying efforts against ecotaxes were made difficult by the general feeling that they were at least (and in some cases, politically) morally responsible for the state of the planet – and indeed, California passed an ecotax in 2012, followed by the EU in 2013.<br />
<br />
So when a series of deadly bombs went off almost simultaneously in capitals that were all part of the spearheading group of "enlightened" countries (as they called themselves), including London on the eve of the 2012 Olympics closure, killing more than 4,000 people… well, there were serious doubts as to where the decision and the means of execution came from. London's Olympics were to be the first "carbon-neutral" major sports event; Rome, the second targeted city, was a leading proponent of the European ecotax; San Francisco was the third and Delhi the fourth, a few months after the Indian government had announced its plans to lead a second "Green revolution" in the third world, this time mixing agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability – and with a strong focus on agrofuels.<br />
<br />
==Paradigm Shifts==<br />
<br />
While the usual immediate consequences of such attacks unfolded – stock market crashes, sharp reduction in air travel, security measures than soon became permanent, economic ripple effects… – a most unexpected thing happened: Governments did not budge and renewed their commitments to greener growth.<br />
<br />
Travel restrictions were converted into an opportunity to "Move less, do more", as UN ambassador Bono put it. In spite of intense lobbying by airlines and the aerospace industry, air travel was severely taxed and caps were imposed on air traffic towards several major destinations. As a substitute, governments and foundations encouraged research on "lifelike" remote communications and installed life-size teleconferencing rooms in developed and developing country metropolis alike, encouraging people to tele-act rather than move as much as possible. Results were initially mixed, but with the right financial incentives and penalties in place, as well as the progress in rich sensory interfaces, telework, telepresence and other forms of remote communications slowly picked up. Virtual universes that had spun off in different parts of the world started connecting through a "Metaverse", to become one of the most powerful means of organizing remote interactions and public forums with a real sense of common presence.<br />
<br />
Managed by a deeply reorganized World Bank and funded through a special contribution by developed countries, the "Oil Severance Project" was launched. Its goal was to design and co-finance large-scale projects with the potential to make countries or industries less dependent on fossil energy: very large wind farms or solar panel fields, experimental sea-bottom turbines, ultra-fast train networks. The "New Paradigms in Resource Production and Use" research programme was another major international initiative, looking for out-of-the-box ideas for industrial processes and transportations that would use less energy and resources and produce less emissions and permanent waste. One of the programme's rules was that results should be public and open-source.<br />
<br />
After some tough discussions, and not a few resignations, among its economists, the IMF and the World Bank even adopted the Human Development Index as a key indicator, and started linking all financing activities to total cost calculations, including environmental and social externalities.<br />
<br />
A "Climate Solidarity Fund" was also created in 2013, and came to immediate use when cyclones of unprecedented strength, following an unusually wet rainy season, hit Bangladesh, killing or displacing millions and ruining most of the country's infrastructure. Coordinated by the UN's Fast Response Corps created along with the Fund, public and NGO relief actions worked miracles, although some areas would remain inhabitable for decades.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Organization==<br />
<br />
Such a turnaround in human affairs required some organizing.<br />
<br />
The UN was only too happy to provide its basis, although governments also insisted on creating two separate, hopefully leaner and meaner, international agencies: ClimaPlan, dealing with climate change, NoWaste, dealing with CO2 emissions, pollution and waste, and PowerShift, dealing with renewable energy and energy efficiency. These agencies were given real supranational powers to enforce decisions, and fund large-scale projects. "Oil Severance" was succeeded by two programmes, "Factor 4" – taking into account the Kyoto III discussions, which were looking at a 75% reduction in emissions over 2007 levels by 2060 – and "Emergency Readiness" – designed to forecast, detect and manage extreme climate-related catastrophes and their aftermath. But perhaps the most innovative (and controversial) decision was to give these agencies some supervisory power over national, local or corporate environmental regulations and programmes.<br />
<br />
The counterpart to these powers was extreme accountability. All the agencies' internal information, all their emails, were open to public scrutiny, each of their activities had its own discussion plaza on the Metaverse, to which thousands of lobbies, groups and private citizens contributed at least occasionally.<br />
<br />
The third Doha cycle on international trade finally produced an agreement in 2022, 21 years after its launch. The agreement included the abandon of most Least Advanced Countries' debts, the dismantlement of agricultural subsidies in developed countries (including the EU's Common Agricultural Policy), the opening of northern market to products from the South. Perhaps its most innovative provision was a clear encouragement to "offshoring" of service-related activities, seen as a way to help developing countries the resource-hungry industrial development phase – and possibly, to relieve migratory pressures, so that developed countries could more easily set up immigration quotas based on their needs and common training & co-development programmes.<br />
<br />
R&D was mostly coordinated internationally according to globally defined priorities: genetically modified organisms that displayed desirable characteristics (resistance, frugality) or properties (e.g., CO2 absorption), preventive and proactive medicine, resource efficiency, smart processes and logistics, smart transport systems, rich remote communications, complex system modelling… Most of this research was entirely public and open-source. However, a side effect of globally centralized funding was a lack of diversity and of openness to small projects or out-of-the-box thinking. This became worse when, after the fast deployment of insufficiently tested plants had wiped out the agriculture of a whole Indian state, Ethics and Evaluation Committees were created everywhere and given veto power on research projects as well as on testing and industry transfer.<br />
<br />
To facilitate and equalize international discussions, Esperanto was relaunched and became the UN's official language… for some time, after which it became clear that "International English" would not be displaced anytime soon, especially since electronic translators had become so efficient.<br />
<br />
While the system seemed to organize itself well enough at global and regional levels, the issue remained to make it work at an individual level. National governments were either too remote, or too discredited, or both. In spite of strong opposition by governments, another level of governance soon emerged, which came to be called "guilds". A "guild" could be a commune, a neighbourhood, a parish, a corporation, an association, an organized ethnic minority or even an extended family – meaning that an individual could belong to several guilds. It would have a charter, an organization, leadership, rules for membership, mechanisms for making and enforcing decisions, and relationships to other guilds – to be considered a guild, you had to be recognized by a number of other guilds. Depending on a number of criteria, guilds could be devolved some regulatory power or some tax money. Through them, the virtuous mechanisms decided at global and national levels were adapted to local realities and enforced.<br />
<br />
In many countries, individuals and corporations (at least the mid- to large-size ones) were also given "Carbon Footprint Accounts" that tracked their energy consumption, their direct and indirect carbon emissions, their recycling behaviours, etc., with financial incentives or penalties attached. While individual accounts were of course protected, those of corporations and of public bodies were publicly accessible. A consumer could even scan a product in a shop with her mobile in order to check its producer's current Footprint status. Guilds were often in charge of emitting and controlling the accounts, consolidating data and enforcing financial mechanisms. The devolved budget they received was itself indexed on their collective performance.<br />
<br />
==Overregulation==<br />
<br />
Spectacular results were achieved, although the system could sometimes take things a little too far. Overall, CO2 emissions in 2025 were already 20% below their 2007 levels in Europe, and 15% in the U.S. The economy kept growing – although slower than before 2008 –, but energy sources were moving away from fossil fuels slightly faster than expected.<br />
<br />
That same year, Mexico city – formerly one of the world's most polluted capitals – finalized a 10-year internationally financed pilot project and became the world's first carbon-neutral metropolis with a new high-density centre connected via fast public transport to smaller, dense suburban nodes, made up of energy-positive buildings and surrounded by protected green areas. In the rest of the country, 75% of the land became nature parks. While the American Teleworkers in Mexico Guild hailed the move, peasants resisted it by violent means, with almost public backing from the FreeLife Guild.<br />
<br />
By that time, most armies were federated into multinational forces of different specialties. Their main concern was the small number of "rogue states", usually oil producing autocracies who became havens for mafias and terrorist groups. The 2027 invasion of Azerbaijan by UN forces provided clear data on these unholy alliances. However, terrorist attacks had by then become a fact of life and, due to reasonably effective controls on technologies for weapons of mass destruction, the damage they produced was unable to destabilize the world. A much smaller multinational force was also called upon to contain the Mexican peasant revolt, but this intervention created a certain uneasiness among international public opinion.<br />
<br />
In fact, the most destabilizing factor had become the world's almost excessive stability.<br />
<br />
As an example, the emphasis on healthy living, responsible behaviour and preventive care focused a lot of researchers on mind enhancements, on increasing life expectancies and on detecting all possible anomalies in embryos. In 2030, reaching 120 was no longer considered as exceptional, nor as bad luck. In fact, it was harder to be young. The financial burden of paying for retirement had become lighter after old-age activity became generalized. But the world was designed by old people (who, through embryo selection and other gene manipulations, even designed part of their own young) for old people, and these individuals, being rightly proud of their achievements, were unready to hand the reins to possibly less reasonable generations.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Projection==<br />
<br />
Youth unrest expressed itself in more and more visible ways. One of the most symbolic moments happened during the 20th ECOncert at the Stade de France in August 2030, when the videofeed of Bob Geldof's concert was hacked with images of cigarettes and whisky glasses (both substances having been classified as drugs in most places), of couch potato avatars watching avatars watching an elderly Geldof and other "I'm bored!" messages.<br />
<br />
With that in mind, Toronto, Seoul and Curitiba (Brazil), soon followed by other cities, reorganized in order to reconcile common rules with differentiated lifestyles. Cities would manage a common infrastructure grid and planning agency and devolve neighbourhood matters – under closely supervised rules and indicators – to local guilds. Young people (or those who consider themselves as such) would have their own space, ageless "transhumans" or New Buddhists could live by their own standards, etc. The cities made sure that some common rules were set and followed, provided interfaces and common spaces as well as 3D virtual forums, while guilds ensured individual compliance to common and specific rules.<br />
<br />
Africa also felt the need to make itself heard. The continent had benefited from the changes, but hardly as much as other countries. The world powers' priority was clearly on reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions and Africa, at its current state of development, was no big player – hence no big problem and no big priority – in that regard. By the end on the 2020s, African countries started to threaten to leave the UN and abstract themselves from common rules, if they were not to benefit from them as much as Asia or South America had done. The issue of economic development remained partially unsolved.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
=Amplify, comment and contribute!=<br />
<br />
You can do that, either by editing the above text, or by providing comments and ideas below.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_3:_New_enlightenment&diff=22906Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment2007-08-02T17:13:47Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Consciousness */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''Yes'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? - '''Resources'''<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario3_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
=Full scenario=<br />
<br />
The true impact of the 2008 Beijing Olympics was not quite what China expected. China had expected the world to stand in awe of its accomplishments, and it had every reason to. But the world chose to question how so many formerly unknown Chinese athletes could reap so many medals; tourists and journalists travelled around and brought back reports of polluted rivers, of dangerous chemical factories operating in the middle of newly built cities, of massive expropriations and exploitation; whereas 10 marathon runners almost suffocated in Beijing's hot and toxic air.<br />
<br />
None of this should have surprised keen observers, but billions of people had it thrown in their face right between a 100 m race and the gymnastics final. And it got them thinking: Is ''this'' what the world is turning into? Which was, of course, what a small group of Chinese intellectuals and entrepreneurs, with connections at the very top of the Communist Party, had in mind.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Consciousness==<br />
<br />
Media, bloggers and common citizens began connecting facts. Oil had passed $ 150 a barrel, pushing gasoline and other prices up, pulling growth down. Seemingly aberrant and local climate events, such as near-tropical rains in Britain while Europe's South-East suffered draughts and scorching heat, began to form a pattern. The web was abuzz. People started collecting, sharing and cross-analyzing data in innovative ways; papers and analyses, some serious, some not, circulated and made their way into traditional media; climate specialists opened up some of their models for public use and even, improvement. One provocative website, SUVtheplanet.org, asked its visitors to expose anyone's, from their neighbour's to celebrities', irresponsible environmental behaviours, forcing many individuals and some corporations to issue public apologies and commitment to better practices.<br />
<br />
Barak Obama was quick to feel the shift in public feeling. He brought AL Gore onboard his campaign trail, switched his pitch from Iraq to environment – and won the November 2008 U.S. presidential election.<br />
<br />
As soon as he took office, Obama boosted the second round of Kyoto discussions, actively driving them to a conclusion at the end of 2009. Europe and all other G8 countries committed to halving their CO2 emissions by 2050, and to meeting again 5 years down the road in order to consider more ambitious goals. For the first time, most emerging economies and developing countries (China being the exception) also agreed to CO2 emission reductions, under the condition that developed countries would provide financial help, technology transfer and more importantly, opened up their markets - which they mostly did. The Doha trade negotiation cycle was reopened and made swift progress, despite strong protests in the West. Within one year, 183 countries had signed the Kyoto II protocol.<br />
<br />
In political circles, "Green" had become a passport to election. Everybody came up with their new idea: SUVs were banned from several cities and states, private swimming pools were heavily taxed, garbage recycling was made mandatory, climatization became subject to strict rules. Public R&D funding was reoriented towards sustainability, with a focus on quick and visible results: Renewable energy, energy efficiency, resource-efficient and nutrient genetically modified plants and animals, ecosystem modelling, next-generation nuclear energy, etc.<br />
<br />
Corporations followed suit. All large corporations published environmental commitments and many were serious about fulfilling them. Smaller corporations and developing country firms, though, had more difficulties and often complained this move was another way of putting pressure on subcontractors or of closing the door to smaller competitors.<br />
<br />
Of course, not everybody liked that new environmental bias. Free market advocates warned that this surge in regulatory activity would stifle growth and might produce consequences worse than the problems they were supposed to solve. Oil producers, who had until then been investing heavily in new extraction methods, planning on continued growth of demand, started worrying. Their lobbying efforts against ecotaxes were made difficult by the general feeling that they were at least (and in some cases, politically) morally responsible for the state of the planet – and indeed, California passed an ecotax in 2012, followed by the EU in 2013.<br />
<br />
So when a series of deadly bombs went off almost simultaneously in capitals that were all part of the spearheading group of "enlightened" countries (as they called themselves), including London on the eve of the 2012 Olympics closure, killing more than 4,000 people… well, there were serious doubts as to where the decision and the means of execution came from. London's Olympics were to be the first "carbon-neutral" major sports event; Rome, the second targeted city, was a leading proponent of the European ecotax; San Francisco was the third and Delhi the fourth, a few months after the Indian government had announced its plans to lead a second "Green revolution" in the third world, this time mixing agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability – and with a strong focus on agrofuels.<br />
<br />
==Paradigm Shifts==<br />
<br />
While the usual immediate consequences of such attacks unfolded – stock market crashes, sharp reduction in air travel, security measures than soon became permanent, economic ripple effects… – a most unexpected thing happened: Governments did not budge and renewed their commitments to greener growth.<br />
<br />
Travel restrictions were converted into an opportunity to "Move less, do more", as UN ambassador Bono put it. In spite of intense lobbying by airlines and the aerospace industry, air travel was severely taxed and caps were imposed on air traffic towards several major destinations. As a substitute, governments and foundations encouraged research on "lifelike" remote communications and installed life-size teleconferencing rooms in developed and developing country metropolis alike, encouraging people to tele-act rather than move as much as possible. Results were initially mixed, but with the right financial incentives and penalties in place, as well as the progress in rich sensory interfaces, telework, telepresence and other forms of remote communications slowly picked up. Virtual universes that had spun off in different parts of the world started connecting through a "Metaverse", to become one of the most powerful means of organizing remote interactions and public forums with a real sense of common presence.<br />
<br />
Managed by a deeply reorganized World Bank and funded through a special contribution by developed countries, the "Oil Severance Project" was launched. Its goal was to design and co-finance large-scale projects with the potential to make countries or industries less dependent on fossil energy: very large wind farms or solar panel fields, experimental sea-bottom turbines, ultra-fast train networks. The "New Paradigms in Resource Production and Use" research programme was another major international initiative, looking for out-of-the-box ideas for industrial processes and transportations that would use less energy and resources and produce less emissions and permanent waste. One of the programme's rules was that results should be public and open-source.<br />
<br />
After some tough discussions, and not a few resignations, among its economists, the IMF and the World Bank even adopted the Human Development Index as a key indicator, and started linking all financing activities to total cost calculations, including environmental and social externalities.<br />
<br />
A "Climate Solidarity Fund" was also created in 2013, and came to immediate use when cyclones of unprecedented strength, following an unusually wet rainy season, hit Bangladesh, killing or displacing millions and ruining most of the country's infrastructure. Coordinated by the UN's Fast Response Corps created along with the Fund, public and NGO relief actions worked miracles, although some areas would remain inhabitable for decades.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Organization==<br />
<br />
Such a turnaround in human affairs required some organizing.<br />
<br />
The UN was only too happy to provide its basis, although governments also insisted on creating two separate, hopefully leaner and meaner, international agencies: ClimaPlan, dealing with climate change, NoWaste, dealing with CO2 emissions, pollution and waste, and PowerShift, dealing with renewable energy and energy efficiency. These agencies were given real supranational powers to enforce decisions, and fund large-scale projects. "Oil Severance" was succeeded by two programmes, "Factor 4" – taking into account the Kyoto III discussions, which were looking at a 75% reduction in emissions over 2007 levels by 2060 – and "Emergency Readiness" – designed to forecast, detect and manage extreme climate-related catastrophes and their aftermath. But perhaps the most innovative (and controversial) decision was to give these agencies some supervisory power over national, local or corporate environmental regulations and programmes.<br />
<br />
The counterpart to these powers was extreme accountability. All the agencies' internal information, all their emails, were open to public scrutiny, each of their activities had its own discussion plaza on the Metaverse, to which thousands of lobbies, groups and private citizens contributed at least occasionally.<br />
<br />
The third Doha cycle on international trade finally produced an agreement in 2022, 21 years after its launch. The agreement included the abandon of most Least Advanced Countries' debts, the dismantlement of agricultural subsidies in developed countries (including the EU's Common Agricultural Policy), the opening of northern market to products from the South. Perhaps its most innovative provision was a clear encouragement to "offshoring" of service-related activities, seen as a way to help developing countries the resource-hungry industrial development phase – and possibly, to relieve migratory pressures, son that developed countries could more easily set up immigration quotas based on their needs and common training & co-development programmes.<br />
<br />
R&D was mostly coordinated internationally according to globally defined priorities: genetically modified organisms that displayed desirable characteristics (resistance, frugality) or properties (e.g., CO2 absorption), preventive and proactive medicine, resource efficiency, smart processes and logistics, smart transport systems, rich remote communications, complex system modelling… Most of this research was entirely public and open-source. However, a side effect of globally centralized funding was a lack of diversity and of openness to small projects or out-of-the-box thinking. This became worse when, after the fast deployment of insufficiently tested plants had wiped out the agriculture of a whole Indian state, Ethics and Evaluation Committees were created everywhere and given veto power on research projects as well as on testing and industry transfer.<br />
<br />
To facilitate and equalize international discussions, Esperanto was relaunched and became the UN's official language… for some time, after which it became clear that "International English" would not be displaced anytime soon, especially since electronic translators had become so efficient.<br />
<br />
While the system seemed to organize itself well enough at global and regional levels, the issue remained to make it work at an individual level. National governments were either too remote, or too discredited, or both. In spite of strong opposition by governments, another level of governance soon emerged, which came to be called "guilds". A "guild" could be a commune, a neighbourhood, a parish, a corporation, an association, an organized ethnic minority or even an extended family – meaning that an individual could belong to several guilds. It would have a charter, an organization, leadership, rules for membership, mechanisms for making and enforcing decisions, and relationships to other guilds – to be considered a guild, you had to be recognized by a number of other guilds. Depending on a number of criteria, guilds could be devolved some regulatory power or some tax money. Through them, the virtuous mechanisms decided at global and national levels were adapted to local realities and enforced.<br />
<br />
In many countries, individuals and corporations (at least the mid- to large-size ones) were also given "Carbon Footprint Accounts" that tracked their energy consumption, their direct and indirect carbon emissions, their recycling behaviours, etc., with financial incentives or penalties attached. While individual accounts were of course protected, those of corporations and of public bodies were publicly accessible. A consumer could even scan a product in a shop with her mobile in order to check its producer's current Footprint status. Guilds were often in charge of emitting and controlling the accounts, consolidating data and enforcing financial mechanisms. The devolved budget they received was itself indexed on their collective performance.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Overregulation==<br />
<br />
Spectacular results were achieved, although the system could sometimes take things a little too far. Overall, CO2 emissions in 2025 were already 20% below their 2007 levels in Europe, and 15% in the U.S. The economy kept growing – although slower than before 2008 –, but energy sources were moving away from fossil fuels slightly faster than expected.<br />
<br />
That same year, Mexico city – formerly one of the world's most polluted capitals – finalized a 10-year internationally financed pilot project and became the world's first carbon-neutral metropolis with a new high-density centre connected via fast public transport to smaller, dense suburban nodes, made up of energy-positive buildings and surrounded by protected green areas. In the rest of the country, 75% of the land became nature parks. While the American Teleworkers in Mexico Guild hailed the move, peasants resisted it by violent means, with almost public backing from the FreeLife Guild.<br />
<br />
By that time, most armies were federated into multinational forces of different specialties. Their main concern was the small number of "rogue states", usually oil producing autocracies who became havens for mafias and terrorist groups. The 2027 invasion of Azerbaijan by UN forces provided clear data on these unholy alliances. However, terrorist attacks had by then become a fact of life and, due to reasonably effective controls on technologies for weapons of mass destruction, the damage they produced was unable to destabilize the world. A much smaller multinational force was also called upon to contain the Mexican peasant revolt, but this intervention created a certain uneasiness among international public opinion.<br />
<br />
In fact, the most destabilizing factor had become the world's almost excessive stability.<br />
<br />
As an example, the emphasis on healthy living, responsible behaviour and preventive care focused a lot of researchers on mind enhancements, on increasing life expectancies and on detecting all possible anomalies in embryos. In 2030, reaching 120 was no longer considered as exceptional, nor as bad luck. In fact, it was harder to be young. The financial burden of paying for retirement had become lighter after old-age activity became generalized. But the world was designed by old people (who, through embryo selection and other gene manipulations, even designed part of their own young) for old people, and these individuals, being rightly proud of their achievements, were unready to hand the reins to possibly less reasonable generations.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Projection==<br />
<br />
Youth unrest expressed itself in more and more visible ways. One of the most symbolic moments happened during the 20th ECOncert at the Stade de France in August 2030, when the videofeed of Bob Geldof's concert was hacked with images of cigarettes and whisky glasses (both substances having been classified as drugs in most places), of couch potato avatars watching avatars watching an elderly Geldof and other "I'm bored!" messages.<br />
<br />
With that in mind, Toronto, Seoul and Curitiba (Brazil), soon followed by other cities, reorganized in order to reconcile common rules with differentiated lifestyles. Cities would manage a common infrastructure grid and planning agency and devolve neighbourhood matters – under closely supervised rules and indicators – to local guilds. Young people (or those who consider themselves as such) would have their own space, ageless "transhumans" or New Buddhists could live by their own standards, etc. The cities made sure that some common rules were set and followed, provided interfaces and common spaces as well as 3D virtual forums, while guilds ensured individual compliance to common and specific rules.<br />
<br />
Africa also felt the need to make itself heard. The continent had benefited from the changes, but hardly as much as other countries. The world powers' priority was clearly on reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions and Africa, at its current state of development, was no big player – hence no big problem and no big priority – in that regard. By the end on the 2020s, African countries started to threaten to leave the UN and abstract themselves from common rules, if they were not to benefit from them as much as Asia or South America had done. The issue of economic development remained partially unsolved.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
=Amplify, comment and contribute!=<br />
<br />
You can do that, either by editing the above text, or by providing comments and ideas below.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_3:_New_enlightenment&diff=22905Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment2007-08-02T17:12:03Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''Yes'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? - '''Resources'''<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario3_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
=Full scenario=<br />
<br />
The true impact of the 2008 Beijing Olympics was not quite what China expected. China had expected the world to stand in awe of its accomplishments, and it had every reason to. But the world chose to question how so many formerly unknown Chinese athletes could reap so many medals; tourists and journalists travelled around and brought back reports of polluted rivers, of dangerous chemical factories operating in the middle of newly built cities, of massive expropriations and exploitation; whereas 10 marathon runners almost suffocated in Beijing's hot and toxic air.<br />
<br />
None of this should have surprised keen observers, but billions of people had it thrown in their face right between a 100 m race and the gymnastics final. And it got them thinking: Is ''this'' what the world is turning into? Which was, of course, what a small group of Chinese intellectuals and entrepreneurs, with connections at the very top of the Communist Party, had in mind.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Consciousness==<br />
<br />
Media, bloggers and common citizens began connecting facts. Oil had passed $ 150 a barrel, pushing gasoline and other prices up, pulling growth down. Seemingly aberrant and local climate events, such as near-tropical rains in Britain while Europe's South-East suffered draughts and scorching heat, began to form a pattern. The web was abuzz. People started collecting, sharing and cross-analyzing data in innovative ways; papers and analyses, some serious, some not, circulated and made their way into traditional media; climate specialists opened up some of their models for public use and even, improvement. One provocative website, SUVtheplanet.org, asked its visitors to expose anyone's, from their neighbour's to celebrities', irresponsible environmental behaviours, forcing many individuals and some corporations to issue public apologies and commitment to better practices.<br />
<br />
Barak Obama was quick to feel the shift in public feeling. He brought AL Gore onboard his campaign trail, switched his pitch from Iraq to environment – and won the November 2008 U.S. presidential election.<br />
<br />
As soon as he took office, Obama boosted the second round of Kyoto discussions, actively driving them to a conclusion at the end of 2009. Europe and all other G8 countries committed to halving their CO2 emissions by 2050, and to meeting again 5 years down the road in order to consider more ambitious goals. For the first time, most emerging economies and developing countries (China being the exception) also agreed to CO2 emission reductions, provided developed countries provided financial help, technology transfer and more importantly, opened up their markets. The Doha trade negotiation cycle was reopened and made swift progress, despite strong protests in the West. Within one year, 183 countries had signed the Kyoto II protocol.<br />
<br />
In political circles, "Green" had become a passport to election. Everybody came up with their new idea: SUVs were banned from several cities and states, private swimming pools were heavily taxed, garbage recycling was made mandatory, climatization became subject to strict rules. Public R&D funding was reoriented towards sustainability, with a focus on quick and visible results: Renewable energy, energy efficiency, resource-efficient and nutrient genetically modified plants and animals, ecosystem modelling, next-generation nuclear energy, etc.<br />
<br />
Corporations followed suit. All large corporations published environmental commitments and many were serious about fulfilling them. Smaller corporations and developing country firms, though, had more difficulties and often complained this move was another way of putting pressure on subcontractors or of closing the door to smaller competitors.<br />
<br />
Of course, not everybody liked that new environmental bias. Free market advocates warned that this surge in regulatory activity would stifle growth and might produce consequences worse than the problems they were supposed to solve. Oil producers, who had until then been investing heavily in new extraction methods, planning on continued growth of demand, started worrying. Their lobbying efforts against ecotaxes were made difficult by the general feeling that they were at least (and in some cases, politically) morally responsible for the state of the planet – and indeed, California passed an ecotax in 2012, followed by the EU in 2013.<br />
<br />
So when a series of deadly bombs went off almost simultaneously in capitals that were all part of the spearheading group of "enlightened" countries (as they called themselves), including London on the eve of the 2012 Olympics closure, killing more than 4,000 people… well, there were serious doubts as to where the decision and the means of execution came from. London's Olympics were to be the first "carbon-neutral" major sports event; Rome, the second targeted city, was a leading proponent of the European ecotax; San Francisco was the third and Delhi the fourth, a few months after the Indian government had announced its plans to lead a second "Green revolution" in the third world, this time mixing agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability – and with a strong focus on agrofuels.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Paradigm Shifts==<br />
<br />
While the usual immediate consequences of such attacks unfolded – stock market crashes, sharp reduction in air travel, security measures than soon became permanent, economic ripple effects… – a most unexpected thing happened: Governments did not budge and renewed their commitments to greener growth.<br />
<br />
Travel restrictions were converted into an opportunity to "Move less, do more", as UN ambassador Bono put it. In spite of intense lobbying by airlines and the aerospace industry, air travel was severely taxed and caps were imposed on air traffic towards several major destinations. As a substitute, governments and foundations encouraged research on "lifelike" remote communications and installed life-size teleconferencing rooms in developed and developing country metropolis alike, encouraging people to tele-act rather than move as much as possible. Results were initially mixed, but with the right financial incentives and penalties in place, as well as the progress in rich sensory interfaces, telework, telepresence and other forms of remote communications slowly picked up. Virtual universes that had spun off in different parts of the world started connecting through a "Metaverse", to become one of the most powerful means of organizing remote interactions and public forums with a real sense of common presence.<br />
<br />
Managed by a deeply reorganized World Bank and funded through a special contribution by developed countries, the "Oil Severance Project" was launched. Its goal was to design and co-finance large-scale projects with the potential to make countries or industries less dependent on fossil energy: very large wind farms or solar panel fields, experimental sea-bottom turbines, ultra-fast train networks. The "New Paradigms in Resource Production and Use" research programme was another major international initiative, looking for out-of-the-box ideas for industrial processes and transportations that would use less energy and resources and produce less emissions and permanent waste. One of the programme's rules was that results should be public and open-source.<br />
<br />
After some tough discussions, and not a few resignations, among its economists, the IMF and the World Bank even adopted the Human Development Index as a key indicator, and started linking all financing activities to total cost calculations, including environmental and social externalities.<br />
<br />
A "Climate Solidarity Fund" was also created in 2013, and came to immediate use when cyclones of unprecedented strength, following an unusually wet rainy season, hit Bangladesh, killing or displacing millions and ruining most of the country's infrastructure. Coordinated by the UN's Fast Response Corps created along with the Fund, public and NGO relief actions worked miracles, although some areas would remain inhabitable for decades.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Organization==<br />
<br />
Such a turnaround in human affairs required some organizing.<br />
<br />
The UN was only too happy to provide its basis, although governments also insisted on creating two separate, hopefully leaner and meaner, international agencies: ClimaPlan, dealing with climate change, NoWaste, dealing with CO2 emissions, pollution and waste, and PowerShift, dealing with renewable energy and energy efficiency. These agencies were given real supranational powers to enforce decisions, and fund large-scale projects. "Oil Severance" was succeeded by two programmes, "Factor 4" – taking into account the Kyoto III discussions, which were looking at a 75% reduction in emissions over 2007 levels by 2060 – and "Emergency Readiness" – designed to forecast, detect and manage extreme climate-related catastrophes and their aftermath. But perhaps the most innovative (and controversial) decision was to give these agencies some supervisory power over national, local or corporate environmental regulations and programmes.<br />
<br />
The counterpart to these powers was extreme accountability. All the agencies' internal information, all their emails, were open to public scrutiny, each of their activities had its own discussion plaza on the Metaverse, to which thousands of lobbies, groups and private citizens contributed at least occasionally.<br />
<br />
The third Doha cycle on international trade finally produced an agreement in 2022, 21 years after its launch. The agreement included the abandon of most Least Advanced Countries' debts, the dismantlement of agricultural subsidies in developed countries (including the EU's Common Agricultural Policy), the opening of northern market to products from the South. Perhaps its most innovative provision was a clear encouragement to "offshoring" of service-related activities, seen as a way to help developing countries the resource-hungry industrial development phase – and possibly, to relieve migratory pressures, son that developed countries could more easily set up immigration quotas based on their needs and common training & co-development programmes.<br />
<br />
R&D was mostly coordinated internationally according to globally defined priorities: genetically modified organisms that displayed desirable characteristics (resistance, frugality) or properties (e.g., CO2 absorption), preventive and proactive medicine, resource efficiency, smart processes and logistics, smart transport systems, rich remote communications, complex system modelling… Most of this research was entirely public and open-source. However, a side effect of globally centralized funding was a lack of diversity and of openness to small projects or out-of-the-box thinking. This became worse when, after the fast deployment of insufficiently tested plants had wiped out the agriculture of a whole Indian state, Ethics and Evaluation Committees were created everywhere and given veto power on research projects as well as on testing and industry transfer.<br />
<br />
To facilitate and equalize international discussions, Esperanto was relaunched and became the UN's official language… for some time, after which it became clear that "International English" would not be displaced anytime soon, especially since electronic translators had become so efficient.<br />
<br />
While the system seemed to organize itself well enough at global and regional levels, the issue remained to make it work at an individual level. National governments were either too remote, or too discredited, or both. In spite of strong opposition by governments, another level of governance soon emerged, which came to be called "guilds". A "guild" could be a commune, a neighbourhood, a parish, a corporation, an association, an organized ethnic minority or even an extended family – meaning that an individual could belong to several guilds. It would have a charter, an organization, leadership, rules for membership, mechanisms for making and enforcing decisions, and relationships to other guilds – to be considered a guild, you had to be recognized by a number of other guilds. Depending on a number of criteria, guilds could be devolved some regulatory power or some tax money. Through them, the virtuous mechanisms decided at global and national levels were adapted to local realities and enforced.<br />
<br />
In many countries, individuals and corporations (at least the mid- to large-size ones) were also given "Carbon Footprint Accounts" that tracked their energy consumption, their direct and indirect carbon emissions, their recycling behaviours, etc., with financial incentives or penalties attached. While individual accounts were of course protected, those of corporations and of public bodies were publicly accessible. A consumer could even scan a product in a shop with her mobile in order to check its producer's current Footprint status. Guilds were often in charge of emitting and controlling the accounts, consolidating data and enforcing financial mechanisms. The devolved budget they received was itself indexed on their collective performance.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Overregulation==<br />
<br />
Spectacular results were achieved, although the system could sometimes take things a little too far. Overall, CO2 emissions in 2025 were already 20% below their 2007 levels in Europe, and 15% in the U.S. The economy kept growing – although slower than before 2008 –, but energy sources were moving away from fossil fuels slightly faster than expected.<br />
<br />
That same year, Mexico city – formerly one of the world's most polluted capitals – finalized a 10-year internationally financed pilot project and became the world's first carbon-neutral metropolis with a new high-density centre connected via fast public transport to smaller, dense suburban nodes, made up of energy-positive buildings and surrounded by protected green areas. In the rest of the country, 75% of the land became nature parks. While the American Teleworkers in Mexico Guild hailed the move, peasants resisted it by violent means, with almost public backing from the FreeLife Guild.<br />
<br />
By that time, most armies were federated into multinational forces of different specialties. Their main concern was the small number of "rogue states", usually oil producing autocracies who became havens for mafias and terrorist groups. The 2027 invasion of Azerbaijan by UN forces provided clear data on these unholy alliances. However, terrorist attacks had by then become a fact of life and, due to reasonably effective controls on technologies for weapons of mass destruction, the damage they produced was unable to destabilize the world. A much smaller multinational force was also called upon to contain the Mexican peasant revolt, but this intervention created a certain uneasiness among international public opinion.<br />
<br />
In fact, the most destabilizing factor had become the world's almost excessive stability.<br />
<br />
As an example, the emphasis on healthy living, responsible behaviour and preventive care focused a lot of researchers on mind enhancements, on increasing life expectancies and on detecting all possible anomalies in embryos. In 2030, reaching 120 was no longer considered as exceptional, nor as bad luck. In fact, it was harder to be young. The financial burden of paying for retirement had become lighter after old-age activity became generalized. But the world was designed by old people (who, through embryo selection and other gene manipulations, even designed part of their own young) for old people, and these individuals, being rightly proud of their achievements, were unready to hand the reins to possibly less reasonable generations.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Projection==<br />
<br />
Youth unrest expressed itself in more and more visible ways. One of the most symbolic moments happened during the 20th ECOncert at the Stade de France in August 2030, when the videofeed of Bob Geldof's concert was hacked with images of cigarettes and whisky glasses (both substances having been classified as drugs in most places), of couch potato avatars watching avatars watching an elderly Geldof and other "I'm bored!" messages.<br />
<br />
With that in mind, Toronto, Seoul and Curitiba (Brazil), soon followed by other cities, reorganized in order to reconcile common rules with differentiated lifestyles. Cities would manage a common infrastructure grid and planning agency and devolve neighbourhood matters – under closely supervised rules and indicators – to local guilds. Young people (or those who consider themselves as such) would have their own space, ageless "transhumans" or New Buddhists could live by their own standards, etc. The cities made sure that some common rules were set and followed, provided interfaces and common spaces as well as 3D virtual forums, while guilds ensured individual compliance to common and specific rules.<br />
<br />
Africa also felt the need to make itself heard. The continent had benefited from the changes, but hardly as much as other countries. The world powers' priority was clearly on reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions and Africa, at its current state of development, was no big player – hence no big problem and no big priority – in that regard. By the end on the 2020s, African countries started to threaten to leave the UN and abstract themselves from common rules, if they were not to benefit from them as much as Asia or South America had done. The issue of economic development remained partially unsolved.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
=Amplify, comment and contribute!=<br />
<br />
You can do that, either by editing the above text, or by providing comments and ideas below.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_1:_Collapse&diff=22904Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse2007-08-01T17:29:09Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''No'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? [irrelevant]<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, fresh water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously hurting the world economy and producing severe human damage, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies tend to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building as well as in semi-autonomous, encrypted and somehow tolerated virtual networks.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario1_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
=Full scenario=<br />
<br />
In retrospect, these seem like quiet, easy times, although of course they weren't. Everything seemed to work. As a symbol, the 2008 Beijing Olympics were an unprecedented success: Spectacular (205 records beaten!), grandiose, popular (4.5 billion viewers, all screentypes considered), safe and ''very'' profitable! China did justice to its new status as a world giant. Sure, doping ran rampant, especially in China's teams, and athletes and spectators alike came back to their own polluted metropolis feeling that nothing could really be worse than Beijing, Al Gore was touring the world with yet another frightening movie, but what the heck: We had fun; money, information and images flowed; innovation happened all over the place. The system worked.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Race to the top==<br />
<br />
That shared feeling gave Rudy Giuliani the U.S. presidency in November, 2008. Americans and others felt they needed leadership for growth and safety, not abstract, future-facing, planetary principles. "Clean" growth was fine, as long as it was fast growth. The fledgling discussions that should have led to a second Kyoto round by 2009 were soon abandoned when it became clear that neither Russia, nor the U.S. would sign, and when China, in its bid for greatness, announced it was giving up its "One child" policy.<br />
<br />
Sure, we were aware of what was coming, although on an intellectual plane. TV news reported on extreme climate events, meters of rain in Britain while Eastern and Southern Europe suffered draughts and scorching heat. But most of it happened far away and was gone in a few weeks. It was hard to see the pattern clearly, however many blogs, prophets, reports and rockstars poked it right in your face.<br />
<br />
But it was just too great a time. If you were into Web 2.0, 3.0, mobile or ubicomp, you could invent all you wanted and implement it, get funding ''and'' millions of users in a matter of weeks. With people interacting, cooperating, building things together online, it seemed like if the web's original vision was coming true, and this time, with viable business models. Biotech, neuroscience and nanotech were making fast progress, yielding new cures and diagnoses, better GMOs, spectacular new materials and a few less publicized drugs and methods that mostly soldiers, movie stars and aspiring champions took. New products came onto the market all the time, consumers liked them, emerging countries contributed to growing the market and keeping prices down, while their population got access to western affluence and asked for nothing better.<br />
<br />
So we grew. India vowed that the 2010 Delhi Commonwealth Games would be even grander than Beijing, to which China responded by pumping more money into the Shanghai 2010 World Expo. The oil barrel hit $150, then $200, and that hurt, although not so much: There was plenty of money and besides, the careful planners knew there were always a few weeks each year when prices went sharply down, despite the clear upwards trend.<br />
<br />
In many ways, we felt that global warming and the shortage of exhaustible resources such as oil and water would go away. We would discover inexhaustible energy sources, we would become able to control climate or recapture the CO2. Besides, we bought hybrid cars, we have 2 or 3 garbage cans for recycling, we almost gladly paid new taxes for our fuel and air travel, we videoconferenced a little, we worked from home most Fridays – enough, then, to let us feel entitled to oppose the wind turbine that would ruin the view from the back of our country house.<br />
<br />
These were fun times, really. Until it hit us.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Rupture==<br />
<br />
It started on an Olympic year as well, 2012. In May, a skirmish between China's and the U.S. Navies over two supertankers that both countries wanted in their own ports, illustrated how depleted oil inventories were. This alone triggered a chain of events that sent oil prices to the roof, grounded 40% of UPS and Delta airplanes, caused several factories to shut down until oil supplies were regular again and led whole cities to forbid climatization despite the hot summers. Then, despite – or perhaps thanks to – the massive deployment of security and surveillance technology, 3 deadly and really cunning terrorist attacks created havoc just before the last day of London's Olympics. First, Wembley stadium's safety system was highjacked during the football final, and use to create panic while all doors were closed, electric fences were on and contradictory announcements were made. The second attack was biological, in the closed stadium where gymnastics took place. Meanwhile, a distributed denial of service attack disabled the city's communication networks, surveillance nodes and sensors as well as all geo-located information services, effectively preventing all kind of timely reaction.<br />
<br />
At the end of August, an unusually stormy rainy season in the Gulf of Bengal resulted in flooding the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, killing and displacing millions of Bengalis and effectively destroying most of Bangladesh's infrastructure. But the rest of the world was so caught up in its own problems that, after the initial mobilization of media, NGOs and military assistance, solidarity was truly minimal.<br />
<br />
These events had devastating ripple effects. Stock markets tumbled, of course. Air travel was hit hard, first by fear of other attacks and by security measures that made boarding planes a living hell and created total unpredictability in schedules, second by the price of fuel and last, by government air traffic restrictions. Heavy in debt due to their liberal purchase of new aircraft, several airlines filed for bankruptcy. Airbus only survived this blow by operating some of its own airplanes while finally agreeing for a 30% Russian investment. Public trust was shattered, savings went up, consumption, construction and investment plummeted. Security agencies at last succeeded in regulating the Internet, allowing national – and ''de facto'' U.S. – control over most of what circulated on the Net. In 2013, the world economy decreased by 2% and international trade by 22%.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Downwards==<br />
<br />
With his sometimes annoying "I told you so" attitude, Al Gore had no difficulty in winning the November 2012 presidential election in the U.S. He had more trouble in achieving anything of substance. Everybody was scrambling for his or her survival. Pension systems where crumbling down all over the western world, forcing radical changes in pension schemes: Full retirement age moved up to 70, sometimes 75; in some countries, the very idea of "full retirement" disappeared; family solidarity was strongly encouraged and sometimes made mandatory. Seizing the occasion, 40 "Least advanced countries" officially and simultaneously let it be understood that their foreign debt would not be honoured. Insurance companies revised their policies to exclude most climate-related risks. Border were closed tighter than ever in the West and Asia, effectively maintaining economic migrants and the growing number of refugees displaced by ecological catastrophes or local conflicts over natural resources in a permanent no-man's land.<br />
<br />
Diplomatic relationships chilled notably among most countries. Multilateral diplomacy was entirely replaced by bilateral agreements dictated by the need for securing markets and energy supply channels.<br />
<br />
Faced with tough and unforeseen budget problems, countries cut down on all non-essential spending, and even on some core activities such as education or R&D. Corporations did the same. Venture capital disappeared, except perhaps in the core of the Silicon Valley. R&D and innovation became almost clandestine activities, although they never ceased to take place.<br />
<br />
A few hacktivists felt it their duty to protect the free flow of ideas that was such an important part of the pre-2012 era. On top of the physical and heavily controlled Internet, they set up an encrypted, dynamic virtual network which came to be called the Altronet. The Altronet successfully resisted a number of official and not-so-official attacks and then almost seemed to be left alone, perhaps because authorities and bad guys alike knew that it filled a gap and that they could use it for their own purposes as well. By 2020, most Internet users were ''de facto'' Altronet users.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Relocalization==<br />
<br />
Despite the Altronet, by 2020-2025, globalization was a thing of the past. Individuals, corporations, local communities, countries were all left to fend for themselves. International trade was half of what it was 10 years ago. Some financial markets chose to disconnect from real-time global trading networks. China, India and many developing countries reinstated "One-child" policies. After the UK, Spain and most Scandinavian countries had left it, the EU gave up all pretence of being anything else than an economic space – and even then, countries took to invoking safeguard clauses on all occasions and negotiated their own bilateral agreements. Local conflicts multiplied over access to water, trade routes, pipelines or even trade tariffs, although none have (yet) escalated to nuclear or biological warfare. On the other hand, terrorism was all but extinct, due to border closure and perhaps more importantly, to the departure of all western forces from the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan. After striking a deal with the Palestinians, even Israel was left alone to manage its enormous economic problems.<br />
<br />
The only thing on which developed countries could still agree was the protection of key infrastructures such as the Suez and Panama canals, network nodes and root servers, root identity providers, GPS satellites and, when they could, intercontinental pipelines.<br />
<br />
Local communities slowly learned to cope with the new situation. Local currencies emerged, facilitated by electronic networks, contactless cards and simple, open software. After Nike, Sony and LVMH had shown what it cost to still operate as centralized multinationals, firms like Coca Cola, McDonald's, Siemens, Toyota and HSBC reinvented themselves as loose networks of local companies. Using knowledge accumulated by its engineers when they were subcontracting to western firms, plus its own brand of inventiveness, India launched and exported its own, GMO-based "2nd Green Revolution", despite well-grounded fear and protests over health and environmental risks. Many countries developed their own brands of "generic" IT equipments. India's generic or cheap "intelligent" drugs also came in handy when Eastern Europe was struck by a wave of tropical diseases, brought north by global warming and against which the local population had no natural defences.<br />
<br />
Local values emerged or were rediscovered. Historical events, personalities, artefacts, works of art and places were revisited as the foundations of a new future. Designers, artists, fashion designers, learned to use these symbols in combination with recycled material to incarnate the values of their time. To compensate for the lack of funding and of international coordination, researchers and innovators built interdisciplinary local clusters, microfunding mechanisms and ultra-short innovation cycle mechanisms, yielding significant results in a number of areas: very low-powered IT, intelligent recycling, biomass and other renewable energy sources, revisitation of traditional medicine, resistant and frugal GMOs and genetically engineered livestock, advanced warning and crisis-management systems, polyresistance-enhancing drugs, etc. Of course, scientists and innovators used the Altronet heavily to interact with other people in the world, but their endeavours had difficulties reaching large enough markets, preventing some of their findings from making the difference they could have made.<br />
<br />
People learned to do a lot of things together remotely; however, they could not remove a sense of emotional remoteness, and tended to give priority to their proximity links. The age of promethean science and technology was long gone. Science and technology had to be modest, problem-oriented, sensitive to the urgency of current problems and the fragility of local ecological, economic and political systems. Cloning, human enhancement and most nanotechnologies were mostly banned, although not everywhere. In fact, some mistrust could be felt about those technologists who, it was sometimes said, "led us to where we are".<br />
<br />
<br />
==Territorialization==<br />
<br />
By 2030, the world population was slightly under 8 billion, close to the bottom estimate of the UN's 2006 forecasts. Climate change had ruined the lives of hundred of millions and energy remained a major constraint, despite the halving of growth rates compared to the pre-2012 era. In fact, faced with constant emergencies, public entities and corporations had not taken many conscious steps to change their ways of producing and of doing business.<br />
<br />
Individuals had gone a longer way, though, both out of economic constraints and because the millions of unemployed invented a number of local jobs: on-demand local taxis (often 2-wheeled), selective garbage collection, recycling management, repair-it-alls, etc. These individuals came to form an important part of the social fabric.<br />
<br />
The many local equilibriums that originated from coping with the new, post-globalization situation, felt a strong need to define (and defend) the territories in which they operated. They wanted to assert and live by their newfound values, to define who was local and who was foreign, to protect their fragile activities from competition. After Catalonia, many European regions, as well as North American states or provinces, reached quasi-independent status. Cities like Barcelona also all but seceded. Internal passports were created within several countries and of course (as early as 2020), reinstated within the European Union.<br />
<br />
Climate and conflict refugees also needed their territories. Through one of this period's rare major international initiative, they were directed towards three new "Refustans", bought from Russia, Australia and Tanzania and then viabilized. The story of these new countries remains to be written, but their initial years were clearly reminiscent of Australia's of the American West's histories.<br />
<br />
"Territories" were not just geographic, though. Religious, ethnical, cultural and other kinds of communities also ended up forming their own borders, defining citizenship, forging rules and institutions and using the Altronet to effectively work as coherent territories. The quasi-independent State of California was the first to recognize their existence by revising its constitution to become a "State of Communities".<br />
<br />
The Altronet played a large role in allowing new federated organizations to emerge. Local currencies and exchange systems use it for inter-system trade and compensation; several community disputes were settled on the Altroverse, the open-source federation of virtual universes that first emerged in the 2015s as the "Metaverse", and merged with the Altronet some years later. Some real popular trials were conducted in this 3D space, with judges, prosecutors and lawyers. In fact, the Altronet is generally credited for preventing many conflicts since it emerged, although of course, it has also helped spread forms of – less lethal – cyberwar. Some believe that the Altronet is the mechanism that will effectively bind these multiple and intertwined communities into a new, more open international community.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Amplify, comment and contribute!=<br />
<br />
You can do that, either by editing the above text, or by providing comments and ideas below.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_1:_Collapse&diff=22903Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse2007-08-01T13:48:27Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''No'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? [irrelevant]<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, fresh water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously hurting the world economy and producing severe human damage, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies tend to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building as well as in semi-autonomous, encrypted and somehow tolerated virtual networks.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario1_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
<br />
=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_1:_Collapse&diff=22902Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse2007-08-01T13:47:58Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Initial Description */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''No'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? [irrelevant]<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, fresh water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously hurting the world economy and producing severe human damage, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies tend to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building as well as semi-autonomous, encrypted and somehow tolerated virtual networks.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario1_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
<br />
=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_2030_scenarios&diff=22901CiNum 2030 scenarios2007-08-01T13:44:23Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=The spirit of Ci'Num's scenarios=<br />
Compared to other foresight exercises, Ci'Num intends to produce two distinctive contributions:<br />
* By lending more attention to the role of technology in the construction of the future. Emerging technologies provide us with an unprecedented power of understanding, imagination and action - along with the risks and uncertainties proportionate to that power.<br />
* By focusing on the ways, tools and methods through which we may shape our individual and collective futures, and increase the options available to future generations. In other words, Ci'Num is not about forecasting or choosing any given future, but about identifying what is needed so as to ''empower each and everyone to alter his or her future'', whatever their present comes to be...<br />
<br />
=Four assumptions, three questions=<br />
The mechanics of 2007's scenarios is based on one major assumption: That the form wich our future will take will largely depend on how we address global planetary constraint in terms of environment, climate and exhaustible natural resources.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:CiNum07_Scenario_Tree_V2.PNG]]</center><br />
<br />
=The 4 scenarios=<br />
==Scenario 1- "[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]"==<br />
<br />
''Quick summary:''<br ><br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, fresh water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously hurting the world economy and producing severe human damage, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies try to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building. [...]<br />
<br />
''[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Read and react to the rest for the scenario >>]]''<br />
<br />
==Scenario 2- "[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]"==<br />
<br />
''Quick summary:''<br ><br />
The way around global warming and resource shortages is found through the simultaneous modernization of rich countries and slowing down of growth in rising countries, especially in Asia, while the path to industrial growth remains essentially closed to least developed nations. This is achieved by a de facto alliance of governments and large firms in the North, to hoard global natural resources and distribute them in an "ordered" way, giving priority to their home countries and their spheres of influence. This produces a permanent state of low-intensity, mostly economic, sometimes military conflict, mostly involving minor countries, but also using terrorism as a constant threat. Nation-states regain strength as the need for security grows, both internally and externally. International trade is slightly reduced and becomes a political weapon, as does the economy in general, producing erratic movements, inflation and high savings. Technological developments are fast but mostly targeted towards security and sustainability, and unequally shared. Public spirit is incensed, both against exterior enemies, as within countries, with strong opposition movements. Technology also becomes the tool of choice for the emergence of counter-cultures, hoping to bring about major changes in the state of the world and, meanwhile, trying to implement them at local, community- or project-based levels. [...]<br />
<br />
''[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Read and react to the rest for the scenario >>]]''<br />
<br />
==Scenario 3- "[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]"==<br />
<br />
''Quick summary:''<br ><br />
Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities. [...]<br />
<br />
''[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|Read and react to the rest for the scenario >>]]''<br />
<br />
==Scenario 4- "[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]"==<br />
<br />
''Quick summary:''<br ><br />
A combination of widespread innovation and bottom-up initiatives at local and global scales produces significant changes in energy consumption and production patterns: decentralized energy systems, substitution of products by services, innovative materials in everything from building to clothing to transportation, "cradle-to-cradle" product design, etc. Consumers strongly reward eco-friendly corporations and punish the others, helped by evaluation tools as well as private and public labelling mechanisms. Networks become the primary infrastructure, and the immaterial component of all economies becomes the main source of wealth, trade and growth. Markets and co-operative initiatives compete in achieving desirable goals for all. Global initiatives are mainly directed towards free trade and open markets; powerful, pervasive and mostly free communication networks; and education, whose role and process change deeply. Individuals and groups form the fabric of society, lowering levels of solidarity between groups or with disenfranchised individuals. Armed conflicts decrease while global crime becomes a major, almost recognized force. Diversity and autonomy are primary values at the expense of more common values. Technology developments are targeted towards human enhancement, peer-to-peer communications, empowerment. Crises and catastrophes are more difficult to fight but their occurrence does not destabilize the overall system. [...]<br />
<br />
''[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Read and react to the rest for the scenario >>]]''</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_2030_scenarios&diff=22900CiNum 2030 scenarios2007-08-01T13:42:01Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Scenario 1- "Collapse" */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=The spirit of Ci'Num's scenarios=<br />
Compared to other foresight exercises, Ci'Num intends to produce two distinctive contributions:<br />
* By lending more attention to the role of technology in the construction of the future. Emerging technologies provide us with an unprecedented power of understanding, imagination and action - along with the risks and uncertainties proportionate to that power.<br />
* By focusing on the ways, tools and methods through which we may shape our individual and collective futures, and increase the options available to future generations. In other words, Ci'Num is not about forecasting or choosing any given future, but about identifying what is needed so as to ''empower each and everyone to alter his or her future'', whatever their present comes to be...<br />
<br />
=Four assumptions, three questions=<br />
The mechanics of 2007's scenarios is based on one major assumption: That the form wich our future will take will largely depend on how we address global planetary constraint in terms of environment, climate and exhaustible natural resources.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:CiNum07_Scenario_Tree_V2.PNG]]</center><br />
<br />
=The 4 scenarios=<br />
==Scenario 1- "[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]"==<br />
<br />
''Quick summary:''<br ><br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, fresh water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously hurting the world economy and producing severe human damage, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies try to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building. [...]<br />
<br />
''[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Read the rest for the scenario >>]]''<br />
<br />
==Scenario 2- "[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]"==<br />
<br />
The way around global warming and resource shortages is found through the simultaneous modernization of rich countries and slowing down of growth in rising countries, especially in Asia, while the path to industrial growth remains essentially closed to least developed nations. This is achieved by a de facto alliance of governments and large firms in the North, to hoard global natural resources and distribute them in an "ordered" way, giving priority to their home countries and their spheres of influence. This produces a permanent state of low-intensity, mostly economic, sometimes military conflict, mostly involving minor countries, but also using terrorism as a constant threat. Nation-states regain strength as the need for security grows, both internally and externally. International trade is slightly reduced and becomes a political weapon, as does the economy in general, producing erratic movements, inflation and high savings. Technological developments are fast but mostly targeted towards security and sustainability, and unequally shared. Public spirit is incensed, both against exterior enemies, as within countries, with strong opposition movements. Technology also becomes the tool of choice for the emergence of counter-cultures, hoping to bring about major changes in the state of the world and, meanwhile, trying to implement them at local, community- or project-based levels.<br />
<br />
==Scenario 3- "[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]"==<br />
<br />
Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities.<br />
<br />
==Scenario 4- "[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]"==<br />
<br />
A combination of widespread innovation and bottom-up initiatives at local and global scales produces significant changes in energy consumption and production patterns: decentralized energy systems, substitution of products by services, innovative materials in everything from building to clothing to transportation, "cradle-to-cradle" product design, etc. Consumers strongly reward eco-friendly corporations and punish the others, helped by evaluation tools as well as private and public labelling mechanisms. Networks become the primary infrastructure, and the immaterial component of all economies becomes the main source of wealth, trade and growth. Markets and co-operative initiatives compete in achieving desirable goals for all. Global initiatives are mainly directed towards free trade and open markets; powerful, pervasive and mostly free communication networks; and education, whose role and process change deeply. Individuals and groups form the fabric of society, lowering levels of solidarity between groups or with disenfranchised individuals. Armed conflicts decrease while global crime becomes a major, almost recognized force. Diversity and autonomy are primary values at the expense of more common values. Technology developments are targeted towards human enhancement, peer-to-peer communications, empowerment. Crises and catastrophes are more difficult to fight but their occurrence does not destabilize the overall system.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_4:_100,000_Flowers&diff=22899Ci'Num scenario 4: 100,000 Flowers2007-07-31T14:44:02Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''Yes'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? - '''Resources'''<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
A combination of widespread innovation and bottom-up initiatives at local and global scales produces significant changes in energy consumption and production patterns: decentralized energy systems, substitution of products by services, innovative materials in everything from building to clothing to transportation, "cradle-to-cradle" product design, etc. Consumers strongly reward eco-friendly corporations and punish the others, helped by evaluation tools as well as private and public labelling mechanisms. Networks become the primary infrastructure, and the immaterial component of all economies becomes the main source of wealth, trade and growth. Markets and co-operative initiatives compete in achieving desirable goals for all. Global initiatives are mainly directed towards free trade and open markets; powerful, pervasive and mostly free communication networks; and education, whose role and process change deeply. Individuals and groups form the fabric of society, lowering levels of solidarity between groups or with disenfranchised individuals. Armed conflicts decrease while global crime becomes a major, almost recognized force. Diversity and autonomy are primary values at the expense of more common values. Technology developments are targeted towards human enhancement, peer-to-peer communications, empowerment. Crises and catastrophes are more difficult to fight but their occurrence does not destabilize the overall system.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario4_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_3:_New_enlightenment&diff=22898Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment2007-07-31T14:43:18Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''Yes'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? - '''Resources'''<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Citizens and governments achieve a level of global consciousness that allows them to make a deliberate, common effort to prepare for a better future. Rules and regulations are enforced at local and global scales to reduce emissions and energy consumption. Taxes and other incentives try to orient corporate and consumer behaviours towards sustainability. Major projects with global or continental funding produce huge windfarms or solar plants, and test new technologies at a grand scale. Development becomes a priority, with the aim of helping fast development beyond the resource-intensive, heavy-industry phases. "Guilds" emerge as ways of organizing people at a less-than-global scale, along geographic or community bounds. Strong collective pressure is imposed on "deviant" behaviours, be they individual, corporate or national. Democratic discussion is open, but decisions are strongly enforced. Scientific research and technological innovation is subject to strong ethical overseeing and funded according to its contribution to common goals, including the will to broaden the public domain of knowledge and share capabilities.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario3_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_2:_Long_war(s)&diff=22897Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)2007-07-31T14:42:20Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''Yes'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? - '''Resources'''<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
The way around global warming and resource shortages is found through the simultaneous modernization of rich countries and slowing down of growth in rising countries, especially in Asia, while the path to industrial growth remains essentially closed to least developed nations. This is achieved by a de facto alliance of governments and large firms in the North, to hoard global natural resources and distribute them in an "ordered" way, giving priority to their home countries and their spheres of influence. This produces a permanent state of low-intensity, mostly economic, sometimes military conflict, mostly involving minor countries, but also using terrorism as a constant threat. Nation-states regain strength as the need for security grows, both internally and externally. International trade is slightly reduced and becomes a political weapon, as does the economy in general, producing erratic movements, inflation and high savings. Technological developments are fast but mostly targeted towards security and sustainability, and unequally shared. Public spirit is incensed, both against exterior enemies, as within countries, with strong opposition movements. Technology also becomes the tool of choice for the emergence of counter-cultures, hoping to bring about major changes in the state of the world and, meanwhile, trying to implement them at local, community- or project-based levels.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario2_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_1:_Collapse&diff=22896Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse2007-07-31T14:41:46Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''No'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? [irrelevant]<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, sweet water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously damaging the world economy and producing severe human damages, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies tend to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario1_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
<br />
=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_1:_Collapse&diff=22895Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse2007-07-31T14:41:03Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Timeline */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''No'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? [irrelevant]<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, sweet water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously damaging the world economy and producing severe human damages, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies tend to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
<small>''(click image to see it full-size)''</small><br />
<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario1_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_1:_Collapse&diff=22894Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse2007-07-31T14:40:20Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Timeline */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''No'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? [irrelevant]<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, sweet water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously damaging the world economy and producing severe human damages, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies tend to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Timeline=<br />
<br />
(click image to see it full-size)<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario1_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
<br />
=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_scenario_1:_Collapse&diff=22893Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse2007-07-31T14:39:22Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Position in the [[CiNum_2030_scenarios|scenario tree]]=<br />
* Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - '''No'''<br />
* What is the primary constraint of human activities? [irrelevant]<br />
* What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]<br />
<br><br />
<br />
=Initial Description=<br />
<br />
Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, sweet water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously damaging the world economy and producing severe human damages, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies tend to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building.<br />
<br><br />
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=Timeline=<br />
[[Image:CiNum_Scenario1_Timeline.PNG|800px]]<br />
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=To be amplified: contribute!=</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:CiNum_Scenario4_Timeline.PNG&diff=22892File:CiNum Scenario4 Timeline.PNG2007-07-31T14:36:14Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:CiNum_Scenario3_Timeline.PNG&diff=22891File:CiNum Scenario3 Timeline.PNG2007-07-31T14:35:52Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:CiNum_Scenario2_Timeline.PNG&diff=22890File:CiNum Scenario2 Timeline.PNG2007-07-31T14:35:33Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:CiNum_Scenario1_Timeline.PNG&diff=22889File:CiNum Scenario1 Timeline.PNG2007-07-31T14:34:53Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=NickBostrom&diff=22888NickBostrom2007-07-31T12:34:58Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > [[CiNum_Interviews|The Ci'Num interviews]]</small><br />
<br />
=Interview with Nick Bostrom, Director, Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford)=<br />
<br />
June 27, 2007<br />
<br />
[[Image:NickBostrom.jpg|left]] ''[http://www.nickbostrom.com/ Nick Bostrom], 34, is a philosopher and a leading transhumanist thinker and spokesperson.<br>In 1998, Bostrom co-founded the [http://www.transhumanism.org World Transhumanist Association]. In 2005 he was appointed Director of the newly created Oxford [http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ Future of Humanity Institute].''<br />
<br />
<br />
'''What is the mandate of the Institute for the Future of Humanity?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Our mandate is to look at big picture questions for humanity: the ways in which technology might influence the human condition in the 21st century, the risks and benefits as well as the methodologies related to that.<br />
We currently have 3 main research areas. One is human enhancement: the technologies that could expand human capacities, human memory or the human lifespan, and the ethical questions that arise with these prospects. The second area is catastrophic risks, some of which (but not all, there are also natural risks) are related to anticipated future technologies, as the downside of their potential benefits. The third area is the methodologies which are needed to think about these "big picture" questions; that might seem dull, but it is actually where a lot of the exciting work resides.<br />
<br />
These areas are both the ones that I feel matter most, and also ones where we might hope to make a contribution. There are important areas on which a lot of people are already working, such as world poverty or global warming. On the other hand, some important areas are neglected. One example could be existential risks, threats to human survival. Also, when I got interested in human enhancement 10 years ago, hardly anyone was looking at that from a philosophical and ethical point of view. Now there are more. The ethics of human enhancement has really blossomed in recent years, in the area of bioethics for example.<br />
<br />
One way to look at possible futures is to study situations that would drastically reduce our options to actually choose what we want to be and become. How do you work on these issues?<br />
The more extreme of these situations is existential risks, which reduce all our options, because after they happen we are either no longer there, or we survive under conditions that are so bad that they can no longer be improved. Imagine some kind of world dictator with technologies that utterly prevent any kind of change, a "Brave new world" scenario. Human life continues, but it's a tiny fraction of what it could have been.<br />
From an individual situation you also have the same existential risks: death, or conditions that permanently destroy your life. Lifetime imprisonment for example, or some severe disability. On this score, I believe extending the human lifespan should be a much greater priority than it is today. It is odd that we spend so much money studying how to prevent and cure particular diseases, like cancer, arthritis or heart diseases, but almost neglect their main common cause, which is the frailty that occurs when you grow old. Age is a huge risk factor in almost any major disease. We should focus much more on this underlying vulnerability rather than just trying to put down the fires after they have started.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Human enhancement is obviously an area of major discussion, and sometimes contention. First, what do you consider is likely to happen on this front during the next decades?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Radical changes such as [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_transfer Mind uploading] or "greater-than-human" artificial intelligence are probably several decades away. They might take anywhere between 20 to 80 years, and even with such a wide time interval there is still a significant chance that it will happen earlier or later or never.<br />
<br />
As regards aging, it is possible that in two or three decades we will have found the way to slow down the process by 20-30%, as well as to replace certain organs through stem cell therapy which could regrow certain damaged tissues. However, it would seem very optimistic to think that by that time we will already have the full panel of methods to completely arrest aging, or even reverse it, in all organs. That would be highly beneficial, but a low probability by 2030.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil Ray Kurzweil] seems to think it could occur by then…'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Some advances might let you gain more time to wait for the next breakthroughs… [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey Aubrey de Grey] from Cambridge speaks of "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_escape_velocity escape velocity"] which would be the point where life expectancy increases by at least one year per year. If you could sustain that, you could achieve very long lifespans.<br />
<br />
Life expectancy has been consistently rising by 2 to 3 months per year for quite a long time. In fact, if you draw a line between the life expectancy in the best-performing countries in the world, which differ depending on time (once it was Sweden, now it's Japan) and plot it all the way back to 1840, you will see an amazingly straight line that shows an increase of close to 3 months per year, with almost no fluctuation. <br />
<br />
There is however no evidence that death can be avoided altogether. Eliminating all aging, while keeping other causes of death constant, would result in a life expectancy of about 1,000 years rather than our current 80 years. There is a big gap between very long life and immortality. From the point of view of eternity, 80 or 1,000 years is the same thing, a blink of the eye.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''If we look 10 to 15 years back, what do you think has been the most underestimated trend or event?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
When I first got interested in human enhancement eleven years ago, I would discuss it with friends and colleagues and their question was whether it was reality or science fiction. Now it is generally agreed that at least some of this will become possible. It is not generally agreed when, or to what extent, but the question has changed to: ''"Should we'' modify human nature in these ways?" We have moved from feasibility to normativity, and that is a a bit of progress. My hope would be that we take another step and, instead of asking these big, all or nothing questions, we begin to think about how we might achieve these specific enhancements that might benefit humanity, under what conditions, within what kind of social framework, with what safeguards, etc.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Suppose you are faced with an oracle who knows the future in 2030. If you could ask three questions to this oracle, what would they be?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
If I were really faced with such a situation, I would want to think a long time to make sure I frame the right questions. However…<br />
<br />
One question might be : "How long will it take to build a greater-than-human artificial intelligence?", one that could outperform the best human intelligence in almost all cognitive domains, scientific creativity, social skills, practical wisdom, strategic thinking... When that happens, the game changes quite radically. Because once you can do that, shortly after you will have something that becomes much stronger still. That is a discontinuity, a "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity singularity]", and it is useful to know when we can reach that point, if we ever do. Some people such as Kurzweil, [http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/ Moravec], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge Vinge] and myself believe that at least, we do not have any good reason to think that this could ''no'' happen within some decades, although I think it will probably take close to 50 years. And since the consequences are so big, it is worth thinking about it even if the probabilities you assign to it are low.<br />
<br />
A second question might be whether and when molecular nanotechnology will come about, and whether that would lead to an existential disaster, through its military applications for example.<br />
<br />
Last, Mind uploading would be another technology that we would like to know whether and when it will be possible.<br />
I wouldn't be so interested in the exact magnitude of global warming in 2030. It doesn't make much difference if it is 1.1 degrees or 1.4 degrees. Compared to these other things, it will appear to be a relatively minor factor.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Do you personally have a take on the feasibility of these three events and their possible consequences?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
There does not seem to be many problems regarding their feasibility. We do not have enough data to pinpoint when they will happen, so the responsible thing would be to distribute their probability over a wide interval, even up to a fairly near future, but also extending over the century, with some probability that it will never happen.<br />
The consequences could range from existential catastrophe to some utopian scenarios where almost all the problems that people are currently coping with are easily solved. It could be difficult to intuitively depict what kind of utopian possibilities would be feasible if we had such control, not just of the world around us, but of human nature itself. In a short essay called "[http://www.nickbostrom.com/utopia.html Letter from Utopia]", I have been trying to indicate some of what, in principle, might be possible.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The human of the future who is supposed to have written the "Letter from Utopia" not only lives much longer, but she is also more enlightened in many ways. How do you see that developing?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
The essay of course does not describe any specific scientific methods to reach that, I have written other papers that look into that. The way we could get there would be by, first, avoiding an existential disaster; second, making available a number of human enhancement technologies (the letter speaks of three transformations: Life expectancy, cognitive capacities and emotional well-being); and three, use those technologies wisely to build ourselves up towards this utopia.<br />
<br />
The "Letter" is of course unabashedly normative. In some other papers I take a more analytic, academic approach to these ethical questions. There is a long philosophical tradition on such topics.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''When you look at catastrophic risks, what do you focus on most: Those risks that are not taken into account by others, averting risks, or coping with risks?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
In theory all of that, but in practice, since we are a small team, we have mostly worked on methodological questions, which are a necessary preliminary to being able to tackle more substantive issues. One topic is probability: You can assign probabilities to different risks, but to what extent and on what basis? If you assign a 7% chance that a nanotechnological disaster will destroy us, how can you make this assertion be something more than just an arbitrary guess?<br />
<br />
We also work on the wider category of global catastrophic risks, which includes existential risks at the extreme end, but also global catastrophes that wouldn't cause human extinction but would still be pretty bad. We are preparing a book that will lay wide foundations upon which we can then build more specific analyses.<br />
I have also been working on "[http://www.anthropic-principle.com/book/ observation-selection effect]", which is a piece of methodology that you need when you look at certain kinds of big-picture issues for humanity, to avoid anthropic bias.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Going back to human enhancement, how could that path go very wrong?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
It could go very wrong if we modify ourselves in ways that seem like a clever thing to do at the time, then take another step, then another, which all look like a good idea when they are taken but in fact take us down a path that, if we could now see the end-state that it leads us to we would recoil in horror. We might at each step gain something that seems obvious and tangible, but also loose a subtle value than we can't really articulate until it is too late. Suppose we get a little bit cleverer at each step, or a little bit stronger, but we loose some of our broader appreciation for art or culture, or our love for children, or even something more subtle than that. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leon_Kass Leon Kass], the American bio-conservative writer who was until recently chair of the [http://www.bioethics.gov US President's Council on Bioethics], wrote a lot about this possible erosion of subtle human values.<br />
<br />
There is also another risk, that these technologies would be used coercively through some state-sponsored programme, to eliminate dissent or other forms of resistance. Dissent is a good example. There are forms of being different or subversive that cause big problems for society; we might indeed be better off if we could eliminate things like psychopathy. So suppose you could, through an embryonic test, know that this embryo is predisposed to become a psychopath, and decide to select another embryo instead. That could be good, but maybe there is another trait you could also detect that causes some kind of social inconveniences… And once you've taken enough of those steps you might have lost the source of a great deal of human value, because in history the kind of people who didn't fit into society sometimes did something great, people like Socrates maybe.<br />
<br />
This is actually a significant risk. And the way to avoid it is to better understand what the values involved are, through continuous conversation, discourse and criticism.<br />
<br />
'''<br />
Do you think that there is enough research is the areas you just mentioned?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
No, not compared to the significance of the topics. Existential risk is perhaps the most egregious example. 6 billion people, many of them devoted to ridiculous pursuits, have not been able to muster up more than one research group about how to assure their own survival. Of course, there are groups seriously working on specific risks such as nuclear wars, pandemics and asteroids. But there is no systematic effort to look at the whole spectrum of existential risks, trying to figure out which ones are the most serious and how to avert them. Our little group seems to be the only one so far, and that is just a little part of what we are doing.<br />
There are several reasons for that. Until recently, a great part of the existential risks had not even been conceptualized. Before [http://www.e-drexler.com/p/idx04/00/0404drexlerBioCV.html Eric Drexler's work], nanotechnologies were not on anybody's horizon; before computers, the risk of superintelligent machines couldn't even be conceptualized. <br />
<br />
Another reason is that many of these risks are not the responsibility of anybody in particular.. If you are a military organization, nuclear risk is your responsibility. The World Health Organization deals with pandemics. But if you take a broader view nobody in particular is in charge. It falls between the chairs.<br />
<br />
Because of the polarisation between those who are "for" or "against" human enhancement or progressive medicine, some people who defend this research feel that they should not give the other side ammunition by pointing at the risks. With regard to nanotechnology, this has actually happened: The mainstream nanotechnology community worries that if they talk about the more advanced, "drexlerian" nanotechnologies, and people start thinking about the risks, then there may be a backlash against all nanotechnology. So they prefer to pretend that these technologies will never happen, that they remain science fiction.<br />
<br />
The result is a kind of self-censorship on the part of technologists, which has a harmful effect on existential risks research.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''And this self-censorship then also applies to describing the ambition, the vision behind some of this research'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Yes, you limit yourself both in being able to discuss the exciting visions of what you could do, and also the risks and what we could do to prevent them. It's difficult enough to figure out these risks when everybody is honest and doing their best, but if in addition there are these political currents flowing through the discourse, it becomes practically impossible to make progress.<br />
'''<br />
<br />
What should governments do, either in research or in fostering discussion on these topics?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
One idea, which has been initiated by [http://hanson.gmu.edu/ Robin Hanson], is to set up "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market prediction markets]". They are very easy to set up and could help produce better probability estimates of various future events.<br />
<br />
Another would be a kind of "Manhattan Project" on anti-aging medicine. We have a big aging population in Europe. They are getting older and frailer all the time, and do we just want them to die after lingering for years in old people's homes, or do we want to look for a long-term solution to that? Europe could take the leas in that area.<br />
I would also want to see some more research on various human enhancements such as cognitive enhancements. Our regulatory system is perverse, because it is set up to deal with drugs that cure diseases, and makes it almost impossible for a drugs company to get approval for a drug that doesn't cure a particular disease. As a result, if you develop some compound that could actually help a broad class of people to improve their memory or get more energy, it is currently necessary to invent some disease so you can prescribe the drug! So you see terms like "mild cognitive insufficiency" or indeed, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) which at the extreme is probably a real disease, but is really part of a whole spectrum – and more and more segments of this natural spectrum now have to be stamped "ADHD". In some part of America, up to 10% of schoolboys are now supposed to suffer from ADHD. This is absurd: If they benefit from a drug that improves concentration, why do they have to be seen as diseased in order to take it?<br />
<br />
There could be a regulatory mechanism for enabling lifestyle drugs, and enhancement drugs, and at the same time more research for understanding the safety and efficacy of these drugs.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''You would think that large pharmaceutical corporations have great incentives to work on such drugs…'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Yes, but we need basic research. Once something is 5 to 10 years away, then pharmaceutical companies will jump in. But many of these technologies are 30 or more years away. We now need to lay the groundwork for future applications.<br />
<br />
The public sector spends billions of euros to fund research on cancer or heart disease, which is as it should be, but it is a great failure of imagination not to look at aging per se, since we know that it is responsible for most of those diseases. If you look at the percentage of heart diseases or cancers that are due to aging, you know that it is by far the biggest killer around, especially in developed countries. You can estimate the fraction of deaths that are due to aging as opposed to other factors by looking at the differential death rates of people depending on their age. And it has been estimated of the 150,000 people who die every day, roughly 100,000 deaths can be attributed to aging.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_Interviews&diff=22887CiNum Interviews2007-07-31T12:32:40Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The Ci'Num interviews</small><br />
<br />
=The Ci'Num interviews=<br />
<br />
<br />
Over the last 3 years, the Ci'Num team (AEC, Fing and the DTN) has been organizing workshops and conducting in-depth interviews with leading thinkers, entrepreneurs, creative minds and decision-makers throughout the world: Beijing, Boston/Cambridge, Brussels, Helsinki, Oxford, Paris, Shanghai, Tokyo.<br />
<br />
<br />
* [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2006-workshops-proceedings Proceedings of the 2006 workshops]<br />
<br />
<br />
* [http://cinum.viabloga.com/dossiers_documentaires.shtml 2006 interviews (in French!)]<br />
<br />
<br />
* [[NickBostrom|Interview with Nick Bostrom, Director, Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford)]]</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=NickBostrom&diff=22886NickBostrom2007-07-31T12:30:07Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div>=Interview with Nick Bostrom, Director, Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford)=<br />
<br />
June 27, 2007<br />
<br />
[[Image:NickBostrom.jpg|left]] ''[http://www.nickbostrom.com/ Nick Bostrom], 34, is a philosopher and a leading transhumanist thinker and spokesperson.<br>In 1998, Bostrom co-founded the [http://www.transhumanism.org World Transhumanist Association]. In 2005 he was appointed Director of the newly created Oxford [http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ Future of Humanity Institute].''<br />
<br />
<br />
'''What is the mandate of the Institute for the Future of Humanity?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Our mandate is to look at big picture questions for humanity: the ways in which technology might influence the human condition in the 21st century, the risks and benefits as well as the methodologies related to that.<br />
We currently have 3 main research areas. One is human enhancement: the technologies that could expand human capacities, human memory or the human lifespan, and the ethical questions that arise with these prospects. The second area is catastrophic risks, some of which (but not all, there are also natural risks) are related to anticipated future technologies, as the downside of their potential benefits. The third area is the methodologies which are needed to think about these "big picture" questions; that might seem dull, but it is actually where a lot of the exciting work resides.<br />
<br />
These areas are both the ones that I feel matter most, and also ones where we might hope to make a contribution. There are important areas on which a lot of people are already working, such as world poverty or global warming. On the other hand, some important areas are neglected. One example could be existential risks, threats to human survival. Also, when I got interested in human enhancement 10 years ago, hardly anyone was looking at that from a philosophical and ethical point of view. Now there are more. The ethics of human enhancement has really blossomed in recent years, in the area of bioethics for example.<br />
<br />
One way to look at possible futures is to study situations that would drastically reduce our options to actually choose what we want to be and become. How do you work on these issues?<br />
The more extreme of these situations is existential risks, which reduce all our options, because after they happen we are either no longer there, or we survive under conditions that are so bad that they can no longer be improved. Imagine some kind of world dictator with technologies that utterly prevent any kind of change, a "Brave new world" scenario. Human life continues, but it's a tiny fraction of what it could have been.<br />
From an individual situation you also have the same existential risks: death, or conditions that permanently destroy your life. Lifetime imprisonment for example, or some severe disability. On this score, I believe extending the human lifespan should be a much greater priority than it is today. It is odd that we spend so much money studying how to prevent and cure particular diseases, like cancer, arthritis or heart diseases, but almost neglect their main common cause, which is the frailty that occurs when you grow old. Age is a huge risk factor in almost any major disease. We should focus much more on this underlying vulnerability rather than just trying to put down the fires after they have started.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Human enhancement is obviously an area of major discussion, and sometimes contention. First, what do you consider is likely to happen on this front during the next decades?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Radical changes such as [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_transfer Mind uploading] or "greater-than-human" artificial intelligence are probably several decades away. They might take anywhere between 20 to 80 years, and even with such a wide time interval there is still a significant chance that it will happen earlier or later or never.<br />
<br />
As regards aging, it is possible that in two or three decades we will have found the way to slow down the process by 20-30%, as well as to replace certain organs through stem cell therapy which could regrow certain damaged tissues. However, it would seem very optimistic to think that by that time we will already have the full panel of methods to completely arrest aging, or even reverse it, in all organs. That would be highly beneficial, but a low probability by 2030.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil Ray Kurzweil] seems to think it could occur by then…'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Some advances might let you gain more time to wait for the next breakthroughs… [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey Aubrey de Grey] from Cambridge speaks of "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_escape_velocity escape velocity"] which would be the point where life expectancy increases by at least one year per year. If you could sustain that, you could achieve very long lifespans.<br />
<br />
Life expectancy has been consistently rising by 2 to 3 months per year for quite a long time. In fact, if you draw a line between the life expectancy in the best-performing countries in the world, which differ depending on time (once it was Sweden, now it's Japan) and plot it all the way back to 1840, you will see an amazingly straight line that shows an increase of close to 3 months per year, with almost no fluctuation. <br />
<br />
There is however no evidence that death can be avoided altogether. Eliminating all aging, while keeping other causes of death constant, would result in a life expectancy of about 1,000 years rather than our current 80 years. There is a big gap between very long life and immortality. From the point of view of eternity, 80 or 1,000 years is the same thing, a blink of the eye.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''If we look 10 to 15 years back, what do you think has been the most underestimated trend or event?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
When I first got interested in human enhancement eleven years ago, I would discuss it with friends and colleagues and their question was whether it was reality or science fiction. Now it is generally agreed that at least some of this will become possible. It is not generally agreed when, or to what extent, but the question has changed to: ''"Should we'' modify human nature in these ways?" We have moved from feasibility to normativity, and that is a a bit of progress. My hope would be that we take another step and, instead of asking these big, all or nothing questions, we begin to think about how we might achieve these specific enhancements that might benefit humanity, under what conditions, within what kind of social framework, with what safeguards, etc.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Suppose you are faced with an oracle who knows the future in 2030. If you could ask three questions to this oracle, what would they be?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
If I were really faced with such a situation, I would want to think a long time to make sure I frame the right questions. However…<br />
<br />
One question might be : "How long will it take to build a greater-than-human artificial intelligence?", one that could outperform the best human intelligence in almost all cognitive domains, scientific creativity, social skills, practical wisdom, strategic thinking... When that happens, the game changes quite radically. Because once you can do that, shortly after you will have something that becomes much stronger still. That is a discontinuity, a "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity singularity]", and it is useful to know when we can reach that point, if we ever do. Some people such as Kurzweil, [http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/ Moravec], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge Vinge] and myself believe that at least, we do not have any good reason to think that this could ''no'' happen within some decades, although I think it will probably take close to 50 years. And since the consequences are so big, it is worth thinking about it even if the probabilities you assign to it are low.<br />
<br />
A second question might be whether and when molecular nanotechnology will come about, and whether that would lead to an existential disaster, through its military applications for example.<br />
<br />
Last, Mind uploading would be another technology that we would like to know whether and when it will be possible.<br />
I wouldn't be so interested in the exact magnitude of global warming in 2030. It doesn't make much difference if it is 1.1 degrees or 1.4 degrees. Compared to these other things, it will appear to be a relatively minor factor.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Do you personally have a take on the feasibility of these three events and their possible consequences?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
There does not seem to be many problems regarding their feasibility. We do not have enough data to pinpoint when they will happen, so the responsible thing would be to distribute their probability over a wide interval, even up to a fairly near future, but also extending over the century, with some probability that it will never happen.<br />
The consequences could range from existential catastrophe to some utopian scenarios where almost all the problems that people are currently coping with are easily solved. It could be difficult to intuitively depict what kind of utopian possibilities would be feasible if we had such control, not just of the world around us, but of human nature itself. In a short essay called "[http://www.nickbostrom.com/utopia.html Letter from Utopia]", I have been trying to indicate some of what, in principle, might be possible.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The human of the future who is supposed to have written the "Letter from Utopia" not only lives much longer, but she is also more enlightened in many ways. How do you see that developing?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
The essay of course does not describe any specific scientific methods to reach that, I have written other papers that look into that. The way we could get there would be by, first, avoiding an existential disaster; second, making available a number of human enhancement technologies (the letter speaks of three transformations: Life expectancy, cognitive capacities and emotional well-being); and three, use those technologies wisely to build ourselves up towards this utopia.<br />
<br />
The "Letter" is of course unabashedly normative. In some other papers I take a more analytic, academic approach to these ethical questions. There is a long philosophical tradition on such topics.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''When you look at catastrophic risks, what do you focus on most: Those risks that are not taken into account by others, averting risks, or coping with risks?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
In theory all of that, but in practice, since we are a small team, we have mostly worked on methodological questions, which are a necessary preliminary to being able to tackle more substantive issues. One topic is probability: You can assign probabilities to different risks, but to what extent and on what basis? If you assign a 7% chance that a nanotechnological disaster will destroy us, how can you make this assertion be something more than just an arbitrary guess?<br />
<br />
We also work on the wider category of global catastrophic risks, which includes existential risks at the extreme end, but also global catastrophes that wouldn't cause human extinction but would still be pretty bad. We are preparing a book that will lay wide foundations upon which we can then build more specific analyses.<br />
I have also been working on "[http://www.anthropic-principle.com/book/ observation-selection effect]", which is a piece of methodology that you need when you look at certain kinds of big-picture issues for humanity, to avoid anthropic bias.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Going back to human enhancement, how could that path go very wrong?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
It could go very wrong if we modify ourselves in ways that seem like a clever thing to do at the time, then take another step, then another, which all look like a good idea when they are taken but in fact take us down a path that, if we could now see the end-state that it leads us to we would recoil in horror. We might at each step gain something that seems obvious and tangible, but also loose a subtle value than we can't really articulate until it is too late. Suppose we get a little bit cleverer at each step, or a little bit stronger, but we loose some of our broader appreciation for art or culture, or our love for children, or even something more subtle than that. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leon_Kass Leon Kass], the American bio-conservative writer who was until recently chair of the [http://www.bioethics.gov US President's Council on Bioethics], wrote a lot about this possible erosion of subtle human values.<br />
<br />
There is also another risk, that these technologies would be used coercively through some state-sponsored programme, to eliminate dissent or other forms of resistance. Dissent is a good example. There are forms of being different or subversive that cause big problems for society; we might indeed be better off if we could eliminate things like psychopathy. So suppose you could, through an embryonic test, know that this embryo is predisposed to become a psychopath, and decide to select another embryo instead. That could be good, but maybe there is another trait you could also detect that causes some kind of social inconveniences… And once you've taken enough of those steps you might have lost the source of a great deal of human value, because in history the kind of people who didn't fit into society sometimes did something great, people like Socrates maybe.<br />
<br />
This is actually a significant risk. And the way to avoid it is to better understand what the values involved are, through continuous conversation, discourse and criticism.<br />
<br />
'''<br />
Do you think that there is enough research is the areas you just mentioned?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
No, not compared to the significance of the topics. Existential risk is perhaps the most egregious example. 6 billion people, many of them devoted to ridiculous pursuits, have not been able to muster up more than one research group about how to assure their own survival. Of course, there are groups seriously working on specific risks such as nuclear wars, pandemics and asteroids. But there is no systematic effort to look at the whole spectrum of existential risks, trying to figure out which ones are the most serious and how to avert them. Our little group seems to be the only one so far, and that is just a little part of what we are doing.<br />
There are several reasons for that. Until recently, a great part of the existential risks had not even been conceptualized. Before [http://www.e-drexler.com/p/idx04/00/0404drexlerBioCV.html Eric Drexler's work], nanotechnologies were not on anybody's horizon; before computers, the risk of superintelligent machines couldn't even be conceptualized. <br />
<br />
Another reason is that many of these risks are not the responsibility of anybody in particular.. If you are a military organization, nuclear risk is your responsibility. The World Health Organization deals with pandemics. But if you take a broader view nobody in particular is in charge. It falls between the chairs.<br />
<br />
Because of the polarisation between those who are "for" or "against" human enhancement or progressive medicine, some people who defend this research feel that they should not give the other side ammunition by pointing at the risks. With regard to nanotechnology, this has actually happened: The mainstream nanotechnology community worries that if they talk about the more advanced, "drexlerian" nanotechnologies, and people start thinking about the risks, then there may be a backlash against all nanotechnology. So they prefer to pretend that these technologies will never happen, that they remain science fiction.<br />
<br />
The result is a kind of self-censorship on the part of technologists, which has a harmful effect on existential risks research.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''And this self-censorship then also applies to describing the ambition, the vision behind some of this research'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Yes, you limit yourself both in being able to discuss the exciting visions of what you could do, and also the risks and what we could do to prevent them. It's difficult enough to figure out these risks when everybody is honest and doing their best, but if in addition there are these political currents flowing through the discourse, it becomes practically impossible to make progress.<br />
'''<br />
<br />
What should governments do, either in research or in fostering discussion on these topics?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
One idea, which has been initiated by [http://hanson.gmu.edu/ Robin Hanson], is to set up "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market prediction markets]". They are very easy to set up and could help produce better probability estimates of various future events.<br />
<br />
Another would be a kind of "Manhattan Project" on anti-aging medicine. We have a big aging population in Europe. They are getting older and frailer all the time, and do we just want them to die after lingering for years in old people's homes, or do we want to look for a long-term solution to that? Europe could take the leas in that area.<br />
I would also want to see some more research on various human enhancements such as cognitive enhancements. Our regulatory system is perverse, because it is set up to deal with drugs that cure diseases, and makes it almost impossible for a drugs company to get approval for a drug that doesn't cure a particular disease. As a result, if you develop some compound that could actually help a broad class of people to improve their memory or get more energy, it is currently necessary to invent some disease so you can prescribe the drug! So you see terms like "mild cognitive insufficiency" or indeed, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) which at the extreme is probably a real disease, but is really part of a whole spectrum – and more and more segments of this natural spectrum now have to be stamped "ADHD". In some part of America, up to 10% of schoolboys are now supposed to suffer from ADHD. This is absurd: If they benefit from a drug that improves concentration, why do they have to be seen as diseased in order to take it?<br />
<br />
There could be a regulatory mechanism for enabling lifestyle drugs, and enhancement drugs, and at the same time more research for understanding the safety and efficacy of these drugs.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''You would think that large pharmaceutical corporations have great incentives to work on such drugs…'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Yes, but we need basic research. Once something is 5 to 10 years away, then pharmaceutical companies will jump in. But many of these technologies are 30 or more years away. We now need to lay the groundwork for future applications.<br />
<br />
The public sector spends billions of euros to fund research on cancer or heart disease, which is as it should be, but it is a great failure of imagination not to look at aging per se, since we know that it is responsible for most of those diseases. If you look at the percentage of heart diseases or cancers that are due to aging, you know that it is by far the biggest killer around, especially in developed countries. You can estimate the fraction of deaths that are due to aging as opposed to other factors by looking at the differential death rates of people depending on their age. And it has been estimated of the 150,000 people who die every day, roughly 100,000 deaths can be attributed to aging.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:NickBostrom.jpg&diff=22885File:NickBostrom.jpg2007-07-31T12:25:12Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=NickBostrom&diff=22884NickBostrom2007-07-31T12:12:05Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div>=Interview with Nick Bostrom, Director, Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford)=<br />
<br />
June 27, 2007<br />
<br />
''[http://www.nickbostrom.com/ Nick Bostrom], 34, is a philosopher and a leading transhumanist thinker and spokesperson.''<br />
<br />
''In 1998, Bostrom co-founded the [http://www.transhumanism.org World Transhumanist Association]. In 2005 he was appointed Director of the newly created Oxford [http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ Future of Humanity Institute].''<br />
<br />
<br />
'''What is the mandate of the Institute for the Future of Humanity?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Our mandate is to look at big picture questions for humanity: the ways in which technology might influence the human condition in the 21st century, the risks and benefits as well as the methodologies related to that.<br />
We currently have 3 main research areas. One is human enhancement: the technologies that could expand human capacities, human memory or the human lifespan, and the ethical questions that arise with these prospects. The second area is catastrophic risks, some of which (but not all, there are also natural risks) are related to anticipated future technologies, as the downside of their potential benefits. The third area is the methodologies which are needed to think about these "big picture" questions; that might seem dull, but it is actually where a lot of the exciting work resides.<br />
<br />
These areas are both the ones that I feel matter most, and also ones where we might hope to make a contribution. There are important areas on which a lot of people are already working, such as world poverty or global warming. On the other hand, some important areas are neglected. One example could be existential risks, threats to human survival. Also, when I got interested in human enhancement 10 years ago, hardly anyone was looking at that from a philosophical and ethical point of view. Now there are more. The ethics of human enhancement has really blossomed in recent years, in the area of bioethics for example.<br />
<br />
One way to look at possible futures is to study situations that would drastically reduce our options to actually choose what we want to be and become. How do you work on these issues?<br />
The more extreme of these situations is existential risks, which reduce all our options, because after they happen we are either no longer there, or we survive under conditions that are so bad that they can no longer be improved. Imagine some kind of world dictator with technologies that utterly prevent any kind of change, a "Brave new world" scenario. Human life continues, but it's a tiny fraction of what it could have been.<br />
From an individual situation you also have the same existential risks: death, or conditions that permanently destroy your life. Lifetime imprisonment for example, or some severe disability. On this score, I believe extending the human lifespan should be a much greater priority than it is today. It is odd that we spend so much money studying how to prevent and cure particular diseases, like cancer, arthritis or heart diseases, but almost neglect their main common cause, which is the frailty that occurs when you grow old. Age is a huge risk factor in almost any major disease. We should focus much more on this underlying vulnerability rather than just trying to put down the fires after they have started.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Human enhancement is obviously an area of major discussion, and sometimes contention. First, what do you consider is likely to happen on this front during the next decades?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Radical changes such as [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_transfer Mind uploading] or "greater-than-human" artificial intelligence are probably several decades away. They might take anywhere between 20 to 80 years, and even with such a wide time interval there is still a significant chance that it will happen earlier or later or never.<br />
<br />
As regards aging, it is possible that in two or three decades we will have found the way to slow down the process by 20-30%, as well as to replace certain organs through stem cell therapy which could regrow certain damaged tissues. However, it would seem very optimistic to think that by that time we will already have the full panel of methods to completely arrest aging, or even reverse it, in all organs. That would be highly beneficial, but a low probability by 2030.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil Ray Kurzweil] seems to think it could occur by then…'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Some advances might let you gain more time to wait for the next breakthroughs… [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey Aubrey de Grey] from Cambridge speaks of "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_escape_velocity escape velocity"] which would be the point where life expectancy increases by at least one year per year. If you could sustain that, you could achieve very long lifespans.<br />
<br />
Life expectancy has been consistently rising by 2 to 3 months per year for quite a long time. In fact, if you draw a line between the life expectancy in the best-performing countries in the world, which differ depending on time (once it was Sweden, now it's Japan) and plot it all the way back to 1840, you will see an amazingly straight line that shows an increase of close to 3 months per year, with almost no fluctuation. <br />
<br />
There is however no evidence that death can be avoided altogether. Eliminating all aging, while keeping other causes of death constant, would result in a life expectancy of about 1,000 years rather than our current 80 years. There is a big gap between very long life and immortality. From the point of view of eternity, 80 or 1,000 years is the same thing, a blink of the eye.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''If we look 10 to 15 years back, what do you think has been the most underestimated trend or event?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
When I first got interested in human enhancement eleven years ago, I would discuss it with friends and colleagues and their question was whether it was reality or science fiction. Now it is generally agreed that at least some of this will become possible. It is not generally agreed when, or to what extent, but the question has changed to: ''"Should we'' modify human nature in these ways?" We have moved from feasibility to normativity, and that is a a bit of progress. My hope would be that we take another step and, instead of asking these big, all or nothing questions, we begin to think about how we might achieve these specific enhancements that might benefit humanity, under what conditions, within what kind of social framework, with what safeguards, etc.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Suppose you are faced with an oracle who knows the future in 2030. If you could ask three questions to this oracle, what would they be?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
If I were really faced with such a situation, I would want to think a long time to make sure I frame the right questions. However…<br />
<br />
One question might be : "How long will it take to build a greater-than-human artificial intelligence?", one that could outperform the best human intelligence in almost all cognitive domains, scientific creativity, social skills, practical wisdom, strategic thinking... When that happens, the game changes quite radically. Because once you can do that, shortly after you will have something that becomes much stronger still. That is a discontinuity, a "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity singularity]", and it is useful to know when we can reach that point, if we ever do. Some people such as Kurzweil, [http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/ Moravec], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge Vinge] and myself believe that at least, we do not have any good reason to think that this could ''no'' happen within some decades, although I think it will probably take close to 50 years. And since the consequences are so big, it is worth thinking about it even if the probabilities you assign to it are low.<br />
<br />
A second question might be whether and when molecular nanotechnology will come about, and whether that would lead to an existential disaster, through its military applications for example.<br />
<br />
Last, Mind uploading would be another technology that we would like to know whether and when it will be possible.<br />
I wouldn't be so interested in the exact magnitude of global warming in 2030. It doesn't make much difference if it is 1.1 degrees or 1.4 degrees. Compared to these other things, it will appear to be a relatively minor factor.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Do you personally have a take on the feasibility of these three events and their possible consequences?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
There does not seem to be many problems regarding their feasibility. We do not have enough data to pinpoint when they will happen, so the responsible thing would be to distribute their probability over a wide interval, even up to a fairly near future, but also extending over the century, with some probability that it will never happen.<br />
The consequences could range from existential catastrophe to some utopian scenarios where almost all the problems that people are currently coping with are easily solved. It could be difficult to intuitively depict what kind of utopian possibilities would be feasible if we had such control, not just of the world around us, but of human nature itself. In a short essay called "[http://www.nickbostrom.com/utopia.html Letter from Utopia]", I have been trying to indicate some of what, in principle, might be possible.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The human of the future who is supposed to have written the "Letter from Utopia" not only lives much longer, but she is also more enlightened in many ways. How do you see that developing?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
The essay of course does not describe any specific scientific methods to reach that, I have written other papers that look into that. The way we could get there would be by, first, avoiding an existential disaster; second, making available a number of human enhancement technologies (the letter speaks of three transformations: Life expectancy, cognitive capacities and emotional well-being); and three, use those technologies wisely to build ourselves up towards this utopia.<br />
<br />
The "Letter" is of course unabashedly normative. In some other papers I take a more analytic, academic approach to these ethical questions. There is a long philosophical tradition on such topics.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''When you look at catastrophic risks, what do you focus on most: Those risks that are not taken into account by others, averting risks, or coping with risks?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
In theory all of that, but in practice, since we are a small team, we have mostly worked on methodological questions, which are a necessary preliminary to being able to tackle more substantive issues. One topic is probability: You can assign probabilities to different risks, but to what extent and on what basis? If you assign a 7% chance that a nanotechnological disaster will destroy us, how can you make this assertion be something more than just an arbitrary guess?<br />
<br />
We also work on the wider category of global catastrophic risks, which includes existential risks at the extreme end, but also global catastrophes that wouldn't cause human extinction but would still be pretty bad. We are preparing a book that will lay wide foundations upon which we can then build more specific analyses.<br />
I have also been working on "[http://www.anthropic-principle.com/book/ observation-selection effect]", which is a piece of methodology that you need when you look at certain kinds of big-picture issues for humanity, to avoid anthropic bias.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Going back to human enhancement, how could that path go very wrong?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
It could go very wrong if we modify ourselves in ways that seem like a clever thing to do at the time, then take another step, then another, which all look like a good idea when they are taken but in fact take us down a path that, if we could now see the end-state that it leads us to we would recoil in horror. We might at each step gain something that seems obvious and tangible, but also loose a subtle value than we can't really articulate until it is too late. Suppose we get a little bit cleverer at each step, or a little bit stronger, but we loose some of our broader appreciation for art or culture, or our love for children, or even something more subtle than that. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leon_Kass Leon Kass], the American bio-conservative writer who was until recently chair of the [http://www.bioethics.gov US President's Council on Bioethics], wrote a lot about this possible erosion of subtle human values.<br />
<br />
There is also another risk, that these technologies would be used coercively through some state-sponsored programme, to eliminate dissent or other forms of resistance. Dissent is a good example. There are forms of being different or subversive that cause big problems for society; we might indeed be better off if we could eliminate things like psychopathy. So suppose you could, through an embryonic test, know that this embryo is predisposed to become a psychopath, and decide to select another embryo instead. That could be good, but maybe there is another trait you could also detect that causes some kind of social inconveniences… And once you've taken enough of those steps you might have lost the source of a great deal of human value, because in history the kind of people who didn't fit into society sometimes did something great, people like Socrates maybe.<br />
<br />
This is actually a significant risk. And the way to avoid it is to better understand what the values involved are, through continuous conversation, discourse and criticism.<br />
<br />
'''<br />
Do you think that there is enough research is the areas you just mentioned?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
No, not compared to the significance of the topics. Existential risk is perhaps the most egregious example. 6 billion people, many of them devoted to ridiculous pursuits, have not been able to muster up more than one research group about how to assure their own survival. Of course, there are groups seriously working on specific risks such as nuclear wars, pandemics and asteroids. But there is no systematic effort to look at the whole spectrum of existential risks, trying to figure out which ones are the most serious and how to avert them. Our little group seems to be the only one so far, and that is just a little part of what we are doing.<br />
There are several reasons for that. Until recently, a great part of the existential risks had not even been conceptualized. Before [http://www.e-drexler.com/p/idx04/00/0404drexlerBioCV.html Eric Drexler's work], nanotechnologies were not on anybody's horizon; before computers, the risk of superintelligent machines couldn't even be conceptualized. <br />
<br />
Another reason is that many of these risks are not the responsibility of anybody in particular.. If you are a military organization, nuclear risk is your responsibility. The World Health Organization deals with pandemics. But if you take a broader view nobody in particular is in charge. It falls between the chairs.<br />
<br />
Because of the polarisation between those who are "for" or "against" human enhancement or progressive medicine, some people who defend this research feel that they should not give the other side ammunition by pointing at the risks. With regard to nanotechnology, this has actually happened: The mainstream nanotechnology community worries that if they talk about the more advanced, "drexlerian" nanotechnologies, and people start thinking about the risks, then there may be a backlash against all nanotechnology. So they prefer to pretend that these technologies will never happen, that they remain science fiction.<br />
<br />
The result is a kind of self-censorship on the part of technologists, which has a harmful effect on existential risks research.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''And this self-censorship then also applies to describing the ambition, the vision behind some of this research'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Yes, you limit yourself both in being able to discuss the exciting visions of what you could do, and also the risks and what we could do to prevent them. It's difficult enough to figure out these risks when everybody is honest and doing their best, but if in addition there are these political currents flowing through the discourse, it becomes practically impossible to make progress.<br />
'''<br />
<br />
What should governments do, either in research or in fostering discussion on these topics?'''<br />
<br />
<br />
One idea, which has been initiated by [http://hanson.gmu.edu/ Robin Hanson], is to set up "[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market prediction markets]". They are very easy to set up and could help produce better probability estimates of various future events.<br />
<br />
Another would be a kind of "Manhattan Project" on anti-aging medicine. We have a big aging population in Europe. They are getting older and frailer all the time, and do we just want them to die after lingering for years in old people's homes, or do we want to look for a long-term solution to that? Europe could take the leas in that area.<br />
I would also want to see some more research on various human enhancements such as cognitive enhancements. Our regulatory system is perverse, because it is set up to deal with drugs that cure diseases, and makes it almost impossible for a drugs company to get approval for a drug that doesn't cure a particular disease. As a result, if you develop some compound that could actually help a broad class of people to improve their memory or get more energy, it is currently necessary to invent some disease so you can prescribe the drug! So you see terms like "mild cognitive insufficiency" or indeed, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) which at the extreme is probably a real disease, but is really part of a whole spectrum – and more and more segments of this natural spectrum now have to be stamped "ADHD". In some part of America, up to 10% of schoolboys are now supposed to suffer from ADHD. This is absurd: If they benefit from a drug that improves concentration, why do they have to be seen as diseased in order to take it?<br />
<br />
There could be a regulatory mechanism for enabling lifestyle drugs, and enhancement drugs, and at the same time more research for understanding the safety and efficacy of these drugs.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''You would think that large pharmaceutical corporations have great incentives to work on such drugs…'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Yes, but we need basic research. Once something is 5 to 10 years away, then pharmaceutical companies will jump in. But many of these technologies are 30 or more years away. We now need to lay the groundwork for future applications.<br />
<br />
The public sector spends billions of euros to fund research on cancer or heart disease, which is as it should be, but it is a great failure of imagination not to look at aging per se, since we know that it is responsible for most of those diseases. If you look at the percentage of heart diseases or cancers that are due to aging, you know that it is by far the biggest killer around, especially in developed countries. You can estimate the fraction of deaths that are due to aging as opposed to other factors by looking at the differential death rates of people depending on their age. And it has been estimated of the 150,000 people who die every day, roughly 100,000 deaths can be attributed to aging.</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_Interviews&diff=22883CiNum Interviews2007-07-31T11:57:09Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div>Over the last 3 years, the Ci'Num team (AEC, Fing and the DTN) has been organizing workshops and conducting in-depth interviews with leading thinkers, entrepreneurs, creative minds and decision-makers throughout the world: Beijing, Boston/Cambridge, Brussels, Helsinki, Oxford, Paris, Shanghai, Tokyo.<br />
<br />
* [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2006-workshops-proceedings Proceedings of the 2006 workshops]<br />
<br />
* [http://cinum.viabloga.com/dossiers_documentaires.shtml 2006 interviews (in French!)]<br />
<br />
* [[NickBostrom|Interview with Nick Bostrom, Director, Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford)]]</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=CiNum_Interviews&diff=22882CiNum Interviews2007-07-31T11:56:49Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div>Over the last 3 years, the Ci'Num team (AEC, Fing and the DTN) has been organizing workshops and conducting in-depth interviews with leading thinkers, entrepreneurs, creative minds and decision-makers throughout the world: Beijing, Boston/Cambridge, Brussels, Helsinki, Oxford, Paris, Shanghai, Tokyo.<br />
<br />
* [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2006-workshops-proceedings Proceedings of the 2006 workshops]<br />
<br />
* [http://cinum.viabloga.com/dossiers_documentaires.shtml 2006 interviews (in French!)]<br />
<br />
* [NickBostrom|Interview with Nick Bostrom, Director, Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford)]</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Cinum&diff=22881Cinum2007-07-31T11:48:06Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
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<center><big>'''CI'NUM 2007 - THE DIGITAL CIVILIZATIONS FORUM'''<br />
<br>'''COLLABORATIVE SCENARIO THINKING SPACE - HORIZON: 2030'''</big></center><br><br />
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<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''ABOUT CI'NUM'''</span></big></center><br><br />
<br />
'''Ci'Num is a global, multicultural, 3-year foresight process which intends to shed a new light on the future of our digital civilizations''', taking into account geopolitical, cultural and economic differences. Our focus is :<br />
*on the specific contribution of, and challenges related to, the emergence of ubiquitous and "intimate" technologies stemming from the convergence between nanotech, biotech, IT and cognitive science;<br />
*on the social appropriation and production of technology;<br />
* and on the ways, tools and methods through which we become ''empowered to shape our personal and collective futures'' - i.e., ''not'' on figuring out the most likely futures, but in recognizing uncertainties and looking for ways to maximize choices and opportunities in any given future.<br />
<br><br />
'''2007: The final leg of a 3-year process'''<br />
<br />
[http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2005 Ci'Num 2005] was about stock-taking on scientific and technical advances, globalization and its challenges, diversity and social evolution.<br />
<br />
[http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/22.shtml Ci'Num 2006] centered around storybuilding: What are the possible futures of digital civilizations? What do these futures hinge upon? What new questions emerge from this story-telling?<br />
<br />
''Ci'Num 2007 is about making choices and decisions:'' How can we imagine and be empowered to build our own paths towards the future , despite all the constraints, the uncertainties, all that could legitimately worry us into inaction - or submission?<br />
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'''Past editions'''<br />
* October 6-7, 2005 : [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2005 Conquests and Conflicts]<br />
* October 6-7, 2006 : [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/22.shtml Visions of the Future]<br />
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<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''TAKE PART IN BUILDING CINUM'S 2030 SCENARIOS'''</span></big></center><br><br />
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*'''[[CiNum 2007 Driving Forces|Contribute to defining and describing the "Driving Forces" that will determine much of 2030]]'''<br />
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*'''[[CiNum 2030 scenarios|Read, edit, contribute to the 4 scenarios]]'''<br />
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*'''[[CiNum Interviews|Read interviews of leading thinkers]]'''<br><br><br><br />
<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''PARTICIPATE IN CI'NUM 2007'S MAIN EVENT'''<br />
'''Margaux (France), October 5-7, 2007</span></big></center><br><br />
Information, program and registration on [http://www.cinum.org| Ci'Num's official website].<br />
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<br><br />
<center>[[image:Relais_margaux.jpg|300px|Relais Margaux]]</center><br />
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''Ci'Num is organised by [http://www.aecom.org/ Aquitaine Europe Communication] (AEC) in association with [http://www.fing.org FING](France's "Next-Generation Internet Foundation") and the [http://www.dtn.net Digital Thinking Network].''<br />
<br><br><br><br><br></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22880Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-30T15:55:06Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Mobility and urbanization */</p>
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<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
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<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit; Private and local currencies ecologically designed (e.g. "[http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/08/stories/2007020801422200.htm Berliner]" ,whose value goes down with time)<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; Creation of private moneys (Linden dollar, "Berliner" from alternative germans...); Very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators...<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics; Nick Szabo’s [http://www.erights.org/smart-contracts/index.html smart contracts].<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Netwar, swarming techniques; Private security agencies even on political matters: private anti-terrorist groups or even private intelligence; Collusion between organized crime (mafia, triads, yakuza) and private law agencies.<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system; Private laws (see [http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Law_as_a_private_good/Law_as_a_private_good.html David Friedman]);<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization=<br />
*''Collapse'': Significant difference between developed and developing world.<br />
:All: Reduced intercity and international travel; Urban currencies; Purchase and operation of cars becomes very expensive and strongly discouraged (as well as a social marker); Insufficient public transport pushes telework, teleservices and local activities/relationships; A small number of wealthy, weel-managed global metropolis become more autonomous, form strict borders and all but secede; Internal borders and passports<br />
:Developed world: Archipelagos of cities, strong internal links and weak intercity links; Social segregation, gates communities; Urban sprawl replaces by denser, almost self-sufficient urban units; Cities or communities very social internally, but control strangers; Peer-to-peer social pressure<br />
:Developing world: Accelerated urbanization due to poverty and environmental problems; Huge, disorganized, violent metropolis<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Very strong difference between developed and developing world.<br />
:All: Reduced international travel, slow growth of inner-city and inter-city mobility; <br />
:Developed world: A network of very modern global cities forms the locus of global political and economic powers (Manuel Castell's "Space of Flows"); Fast inner-city modernization towards sustainability; Cars remain dominant but become smarter; New forms of public transport; Corporations arrange public transport for their employees; Managed sprawl (telework, car-sharing, local amenities...); "Smart cities" provide very personalized, localized services; Pervasive surveillance<br />
:Developing world: Most 3rd world cities plunge into anarchy yet keep growing; Crisis in China's new cities which quickly degrade and fall into disrepair; A few cities slow down immigration and develop original sustainability dynamics and rules; [http://www.ippuc.org.br/ Curitiba] heads the network of such cities<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major, concerted, global effort towards urban sustainability; Denser inner cities and more autonomous peripheral urban units; Development of mid-sized cities (1-2 M) to alleviate pressure on major urban areas; Investment effort on suburbs, with mixed results; Strong city planning imposes constraints on all space-using or mobility-generating innovations; Free-drive cars and air travel strongly discouraged; Automatic electric cars, shared vehicles, on-demand transports; Low-cost airlines banned; Ultrafast trains; Flexible multipurpose urban locations; Synchronized services; Infrastructure and financial incentives for low-energy transports including biking, walking, teleacting; "Mobility account" and billing of eco-costs; Strong social control on mobility, emissions, crime and compliance with all local rules; Ever-larger protected natural space; Mixed physical-virtual agoras; Permanent participative urban democracy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Cities as innovation platforms; Public space, infrastructure (esp. networks) and information considered open-source; Cities, neighbourhoods (sometimes gated) compete to be "greenest" and/or most fun, productive, creative, cultural, quiet, etc.; Urban services (private or privatized) corporations provide highly personalized services, on-the-minute goods or transportation, etc.; Many goods dematerialized as services, possession changed into access; Shared rather than public transport, with financial incentives for sharing; Densification of inner-cities fed by social innovation; Most urban privatized or transfered to communities, with strong - and not always respected - ecological constraints; De facto segregation against poorer/less dense areas; Non-privatized public spaces and services fall into disrepair, sometimes to be replaced by innovative commercial or grassroots substitutes, sometimes not.<br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Synthetic biology-based production of ethanol and other fuels; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body / Health=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; Self-medication; Return to traditional medicine for economical reasons; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Enhancement is defined in a precise, unidmensional way: an enhanced person is more economically/militarily productive; Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; Return to traditional medicine and "holistic" therapies, for ideological reasons, but also because research on better "well-being" drugs (anti-aging, brain enhancement, etc.) is strongly regulated; Large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Self-medication because of slow decline of healthcare systems and ideology of "self-ownership"; Self-medication experts systems available online; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce large-scale poisonings, "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime; Private or grassroots organisation for control of the quality of health products; "Morphological liberty" (see [http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/Texts/MorphologicalFreedom.htm Anders Sandberg]); multiple visions of "human enhancements", people being enhanced according to their favorite tribe or group; "enhanced religious fanatics", (their faith being constantly reactivated through drugs or Persinger’s magnetic transcranial stimulation system, for instance the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_helmet God Helmet]).<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22879Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-30T15:36:30Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Mobility and urbanization */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit; Private and local currencies ecologically designed (e.g. "[http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/08/stories/2007020801422200.htm Berliner]" ,whose value goes down with time)<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; Creation of private moneys (Linden dollar, "Berliner" from alternative germans...); Very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators...<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics; Nick Szabo’s [http://www.erights.org/smart-contracts/index.html smart contracts].<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Netwar, swarming techniques; Private security agencies even on political matters: private anti-terrorist groups or even private intelligence; Collusion between organized crime (mafia, triads, yakuza) and private law agencies.<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system; Private laws (see [http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Law_as_a_private_good/Law_as_a_private_good.html David Friedman]);<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization=<br />
*''Collapse'': Significant difference between developed and developing world.<br />
:All: Reduced intercity and international travel; Urban currencies; Purchase and operation of cars becomes very expensive and strongly discouraged (as well as a social marker); Insufficient public transport pushes telework, teleservices and local activities/relationships; A small number of wealthy, weel-managed global metropolis become more autonomous, form strict borders and all but secede; Internal borders and passports<br />
:Developed world: Archipelagos of cities, strong internal links and weak intercity links; Social segregation, gates communities; Urban sprawl replaces by denser, almost self-sufficient urban units; Cities or communities very social internally, but control strangers; Peer-to-peer social pressure<br />
:Developing world: Accelerated urbanization due to poverty and environmental problems; Huge, disorganized, violent metropolis<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Very strong difference between developed and developing world.<br />
:All: Reduced international travel, slow growth of inner-city and inter-city mobility; <br />
:Developed world: A network of very modern global cities forms the locus of global political and economic powers (Manuel Castell's "Space of Flows"); Fast inner-city modernization towards sustainability; Cars remain dominant but become smarter; New forms of public transport; Corporations arrange public transport for their employees; Managed sprawl (telework, car-sharing, local amenities...); "Smart cities" provide very personalized, localized services; Pervasive surveillance<br />
:Developing world: Most 3rd world cities plunge into anarchy yet keep growing; Crisis in China's new cities which quickly degrade and fall into disrepair; A few cities slow down immigration and develop original sustainability dynamics and rules; [http://www.ippuc.org.br/ Curitiba] heads the network of such cities<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major, concerted, global effort towards urban sustainability; Denser inner cities and more autonomous peripheral urban units; Development of mid-sized cities (1-2 M) to alleviate pressure on major urban areas; Investment effort on suburbs, with mixed results; Strong city planning imposes constraints on all space-using or mobility-generating innovations; Free-drive cars and air travel strongly discouraged; Automatic electric cars, shared vehicles, on-demand transports; Low-cost airlines banned; Ultrafast trains; Flexible multipurpose urban locations; Synchronized services; Infrastructure and financial incentives for low-energy transports including biking, walking, teleacting; "Mobility account" and billing of eco-costs; Strong social control on mobility, emissions, crime and compliance with all local rules; Ever-larger protected natural space; Mixed physical-virtual agoras; Permanent participative urban democracy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Synthetic biology-based production of ethanol and other fuels; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body / Health=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; Self-medication; Return to traditional medicine for economical reasons; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Enhancement is defined in a precise, unidmensional way: an enhanced person is more economically/militarily productive; Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; Return to traditional medicine and "holistic" therapies, for ideological reasons, but also because research on better "well-being" drugs (anti-aging, brain enhancement, etc.) is strongly regulated; Large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Self-medication because of slow decline of healthcare systems and ideology of "self-ownership"; Self-medication experts systems available online; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce large-scale poisonings, "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime; Private or grassroots organisation for control of the quality of health products; "Morphological liberty" (see [http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/Texts/MorphologicalFreedom.htm Anders Sandberg]); multiple visions of "human enhancements", people being enhanced according to their favorite tribe or group; "enhanced religious fanatics", (their faith being constantly reactivated through drugs or Persinger’s magnetic transcranial stimulation system, for instance the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_helmet God Helmet]).<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22877Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:29:58Z<p>Dayquiri: /* The body / Health */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit; Private and local currencies ecologically designed (e.g. "[http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/08/stories/2007020801422200.htm Berliner]" ,whose value goes down with time)<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; Creation of private moneys (Linden dollar, "Berliner" from alternative germans...); Very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators...<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics; Nick Szabo’s [http://www.erights.org/smart-contracts/index.html smart contracts].<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Netwar, swarming techniques; Private security agencies even on political matters: private anti-terrorist groups or even private intelligence; Collusion between organized crime (mafia, triads, yakuza) and private law agencies.<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system; Private laws (see [http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Law_as_a_private_good/Law_as_a_private_good.html David Friedman]);<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Synthetic biology-based production of ethanol and other fuels; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body / Health=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; Self-medication; Return to traditional medicine for economical reasons; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Enhancement is defined in a precise, unidmensional way: an enhanced person is more economically/militarily productive; Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; Return to traditional medicine and "holistic" therapies, for ideological reasons, but also because research on better "well-being" drugs (anti-aging, brain enhancement, etc.) is strongly regulated; Large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Self-medication because of slow decline of healthcare systems and ideology of "self-ownership"; Self-medication experts systems available online; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce large-scale poisonings, "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime; Private or grassroots organisation for control of the quality of health products; "Morphological liberty" (see [http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/Texts/MorphologicalFreedom.htm Anders Sandberg]); multiple visions of "human enhancements", people being enhanced according to their favorite tribe or group; "enhanced religious fanatics", (their faith being constantly reactivated through drugs or Persinger’s magnetic transcranial stimulation system, for instance the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_helmet God Helmet]).<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22876Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:22:49Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Money */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit; Private and local currencies ecologically designed (e.g. "[http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/08/stories/2007020801422200.htm Berliner]" ,whose value goes down with time)<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; Creation of private moneys (Linden dollar, "Berliner" from alternative germans...); Very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators...<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics; Nick Szabo’s [http://www.erights.org/smart-contracts/index.html smart contracts].<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Netwar, swarming techniques; Private security agencies even on political matters: private anti-terrorist groups or even private intelligence; Collusion between organized crime (mafia, triads, yakuza) and private law agencies.<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system; Private laws (see [http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Law_as_a_private_good/Law_as_a_private_good.html David Friedman]);<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Synthetic biology-based production of ethanol and other fuels; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22875Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:19:10Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Growth and economic dynamics */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics; Nick Szabo’s [http://www.erights.org/smart-contracts/index.html smart contracts].<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Netwar, swarming techniques; Private security agencies even on political matters: private anti-terrorist groups or even private intelligence; Collusion between organized crime (mafia, triads, yakuza) and private law agencies.<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system; Private laws (see [http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Law_as_a_private_good/Law_as_a_private_good.html David Friedman]);<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Synthetic biology-based production of ethanol and other fuels; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22874Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:18:12Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Governance */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Netwar, swarming techniques; Private security agencies even on political matters: private anti-terrorist groups or even private intelligence; Collusion between organized crime (mafia, triads, yakuza) and private law agencies.<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system; Private laws (see [http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Law_as_a_private_good/Law_as_a_private_good.html David Friedman]);<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Synthetic biology-based production of ethanol and other fuels; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22873Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:17:30Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Conflict and diplomacy */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Netwar, swarming techniques; Private security agencies even on political matters: private anti-terrorist groups or even private intelligence; Collusion between organized crime (mafia, triads, yakuza) and private law agencies.<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Synthetic biology-based production of ethanol and other fuels; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22872Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:15:37Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Energy */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Synthetic biology-based production of ethanol and other fuels; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22871Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:14:52Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Education */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooling, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22870Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:14:39Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Education */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete; Alternative schooloing, home schooling, sometimes (but not always) with fundamentalist (e.g., creationist) content.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22869Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:13:14Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Culture and counterculture */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
:Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities; Cyberpunk esthetics, hacking, piracy of data, low tech. Hakim bey’s [http://www.hermetic.com/bey/taz_cont.html TAZ] - not for ideological reasons, but for maximizing survival.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
:Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities, neo-hippies ([http://www.burningman.com/ Burning Man]).<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; [http://www.transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/index/ Transhumanism]; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
:Counterculture: Roots Punk and Pop; Right-wing Death Metal rock; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers; "Hundred flowers" culture (see scenario 4); Stirnerian anarchism; Extropianism-like transhumanism; Antidemocratic movements : [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism laveyan satanism].<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
:Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture; New enlightenment’s culture (see scenario 3); Conspiracy theory (the more the world is decentralized, the more the need for simple explanations), fundamentalism, sects.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22868Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T13:03:41Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Research and innovation */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
Counterculture: Punk and Pop; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Top-down agenda; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private-NGO R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Bottom-up, grassroots innovation but with a strong validation from the state at the end and beginning of the process; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Bottom-up, driven by small and large corporations; Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Although the ideological emphasis is on little corporations, innovations frequently end up in the hands of big companies; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22867Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T12:55:28Z<p>Dayquiri: /* Biotech */</p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
{| width="100%" cellspacing="8" align="center"<br />
| rowspan="4" width="10%" valign="top" style="border:2px solid #FDBD24;" bgcolor="#FFFF99"|<br />
<div align="left"><br />
<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
Counterculture: Punk and Pop; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy and food; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Synthetic biology driven toward production of energy; Biotechnological WMD; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research, emphasis on secrecy and intellectual property, with a level of state control; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, but controlled experimentation (alternative wording: "strongly regulated, but transparent and open source when authorised"); Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects; Risks of ecological catastrophe, hoping that precisely open source will help to prevent them (see [http://www.synthesis.cc/ Rob Carlson]).<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ci%27Num_2030_scenario_characteristics&diff=22866Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics2007-07-24T12:47:33Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
<hr />
<div><small>[[Main_Page|Scenariothinking.org]] > [[Cinum|Ci'Num 07 Homepage]] > The 2030 Scenarios</small><br />
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<center><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''Contribute to Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios'''</span></center><br><br />
<small><br />
*[[What_is_Scenario_Thinking%3F|What is Scenario Thinking? >>]]<br><br />
*[[CiNum_2030_scenarios|The mechanics and roots of Ci'Num's 2030 scenarios]]<br />
*[[Ci'Num 2030 scenario characteristics|Ci'Num 2030 detailed scenario characteristics >>]]<br />
*The 4 scenarios:<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse|Collapse]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 2: Long war(s)|Long war(s)]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 3: New enlightenment|New enlightenment]]<br />
**[[Ci'Num scenario 4: Hundred Flowers|Hundred Flowers]]<br />
</small></div><br />
|}<br />
<br><br />
=Identity=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Historical and singular<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guilds (structured, hierarchic, chosen communities – includes some corporations or industries), multiple<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Fluid, fractal, plural<br />
<br />
=Fashion=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use, re-appropriate, repurpose; "Salvation army" style<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Global military style + Fashion invented upon ethnic traditions; Mecca-Cola; Transparent "Search me!" bags; Safety-oriented smart materials; Provocative counter-cultural fashion<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Natural, quality, long-lasting, low impact materials; "English countryside" style; Badges of good behaviour; Guild insignia; Comfort and carbon footprint-oriented smart materials<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Creative, individualized, customizable, low-impact smart materials; "Cool" style with a personal touch; Individual expression; "The brand: Me"<br />
<br />
=Money=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local currencies; Local exchange/barter systems; Microcredit<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National currencies with 1-2 dominant currencies; High inflation, high savings; Short-term options and predictions markets; The Dow Jones and commodities markets<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': The Euro is the major international currency; "Green bonds" backed by UN, guilds or cities, financing huge projects; Carbon-offset markets; Tax-based internalization of external effects, with strong cost-control mechanisms<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': The Dollar remains the major international currency; P2P microcredit; very sophisticated short and long-term options markets; Small caps markets; Internalization of externalities through prices, transparency, labels, consumer behaviours, individual carbon-footprint calculators…<br />
<br />
=Growth and economic dynamics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Negative; Sharp reduction in international trade; Few very large firms with localized activities survive<br />
*''Long war(s)'': War economy and economic war over access to resources; Protectionism; Crises; The Industrial-military complex rules; Strong IPR enforcement<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "De-growth" and new measurement of growth (well-being, human development); Public interventionism; Active and conscious development of public-domain knowledge and generics<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': GDP growth no longer significant measure; Immaterial economy; Markets are key; Continuous tension between IPR and open-source/generics<br />
<br />
=North-South relations=<br />
*''Collapse'': North evolves towards South; Reverse migrations; Unpaid developing countries debts<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Spheres of influence and new protectorates; Reinforcement of agricultural subsidies; "Narrow door" for economic development (Africa and other Least Developed Nations left aside); Political requirements on trade; World economic forum vs. World social forum<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Conscious and shared effort towards (sustainable) development, based on each region's traditional and ex-colonial relationships, aiming at fast leapfrog towards post-industrial economies; Debt cancelled; Common agricultural policy removed; Acceptance of offshoring as a way to ensure economic development without environmental consequences; Social requirements on trade; World economic and ecological forum<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Priority effort towards total connectivity, education and autonomy; Inclusion through networks; Doha cycle finalized; Debt cancelled<br />
<br />
=Conflict and diplomacy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Constant local wars and constant threat of major conflicts; Shifting alliances; Diplomacy centred on complementarities<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Terrorism; Encouraging on side wars and wars on opponents' backyards; Diplomacy centred on access to resources and enforcing sustainability on others; Corporate diplomacy dominant<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Coalitions vs. rogue states; Terrorism and mafias merge; Diplomacy centred on multilateralism; Strong UN<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Civil wars and revolutions; Armies reduced in size; Broad access to (new, small-scale, low-cost) WMD; Diplomacy centred on co-operation and market efficiencies<br />
<br />
=Governance=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local survival<br />
*''Long war(s)'': State of emergency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong world governance + guilds governance<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Procedural, systemic, folded into the system<br />
<br />
=Mobility and urbanization (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=Primary matter=<br />
*''Collapse'': Re-use; Pillaging of easy-to-access natural resources<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Reduce; Little change on basic raw material economic and industrial base<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Reduce and recycle through large-scale projects and facilities; Nanotech<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Recycle through design ("cradle to cradle"), repurpose; Nanotech<br />
<br />
=Energy=<br />
*''Collapse'': Episodic and lasting shortages start the scenario and pervade through it; Permanent energy crises, unreliable supplies and prices; Thermic insulation; Focus on coal and cheap, locally produced energies because of lacks of funds; Each for his own<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Emphasis of demand-reduction and energy efficiency, but with low intensity because of reluctance of energy-producing industries; Efforts towards extraction of coal and oil, as well as carbon sequestration; Nuclear energy developments (current and next-generations)<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Strong effort towards demand-reduction through tax incentives, public initiatives, deliberate moves from products to services; Large global projects for wind and solar plants, as well as carbon sequestration in China and India; Next-generation nuclear energy<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Many distributed sources of energy, decentralized production and distribution, local storage and load-bearing; Green design; Efforts towards "Hydrogen economy"<br />
<br />
=Education=<br />
*''Collapse'': Crisis in public education; Growth of competing educational enterprises; Frugality a major value taught at school.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Competing education systems – between nations, between public and private; Education as a way to produce national unity and competitiveness; Rise of professional education at the expense of academic education.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Major projects towards education in the developing world, led by UN and guilds in somewhat competing ways; Education as means to produce "sound behaviours" and good citizens; Mass-standardized initial education and more personalized lifelong learning using common IT tools and information systems; World competition among universities for academic excellence.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': "De-schooling" through networks and technology, co-operation, "learning by doing", with much help from IT tools; Blurred separation between work, leisure and learning; Public and private education systems compete.<br />
<br />
=Demographics=<br />
*''Collapse'': Life expectancy almost ceases to grow, decreases in some areas; Longer life no longer a priority research goal; Malthusianism and authoritarian birth control in several countries and communities; Avatars replace children; Millions of environmental refugees battle tough immigration laws in less affected countries; Longer work lives because of pension problems; Population reaches plateau around 8.5 billions in 2030.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Life expectancy continues sharp rise in the North, not in the South; China gives up birth control to reach superpower status, while less advanced countries implement "One child" policies; Embryo selection and human enhancement technologies become available to the rich; Generational conflicts between young South and greying North, as well as within North societies; Economic migrants face tough, selective border controls, resulting in riots and in the strengthening of a "globalized class" in developing countries – those who were given a chance to study and work in the North for a while; Population reaches 8.5 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, although at a slower and slower pace.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': General and largely shared effort towards increasing life expectancy and using science in order to prevent diseases and increase human capacities in "responsible" ways; Strong birth control drive in the developing world, financed by developed countries; Co-development reduces migrations; Immigration quotas, non-permanent migrations; Longer and longer work lives: "Active aging" as a priority goal and value; As the generation that has pulled the world out of its troubles seems set to remain in place, the younger generation becomes restless. Population stabilized at 8 billions since 2027.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Life expectancy rises in most places, due to better living standards; Fertility decreases in less advanced countries, however China gives up its "One child" policy; Constant, mostly non-permanent migratory flows in all directions (not just South to North); A "global class" with no national attachment rises; Work-life boundaries blur, especially at old age; Low pensions, decreased family and local solidarities, give birth to generational tensions. Population reaches 8.7 billions in 2030 and keeps growing, causing alarm with some economists.<br />
<br />
=The body=<br />
*''Collapse'': Climate change allows diseases to migrate and hit populations not immune to them; Environmental troubles produce health problems; However, forced relocalization results in lesser pandemics risks; Research focuses on cures and the overall resistance of the body; Embryo selection becomes widespread in affluent communities; Longevity-increasing and lifestyle drugs research no longer encouraged.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military needs produce breakthroughs in combat-related enhancement drugs (attention, stamina, resistance to pain…), prosthetics, tissue-regeneration, etc., which slowly trickles towards civilian uses; Pro-active medicine (studying predispositions, preventing diseases, selecting the right embryos); Organ traffic; Unintended consequences of drugs used on military before proper tests; Bioterror; Stress becomes a major disease.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Emphasis on healthy living, proactive medicine, mind enhancement and longevity: "Cure the cause, not the symptom"; "Methuselah Project"; Strongly enforced ethics and testing requirements before new drugs are put on the market; However, large GMO deployments cause unintended health consequences; Control over access to permanent enhancement techniques; Eugenics.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Emphasis on enhancements that mix utility and pleasure; Lifestyle, non-permanent enhancements; Efficient cures able to compensate and repair the consequences of abuse; Uncontrolled used of new products and mobility produce "new plagues" and local catastrophes; Biocrime.<br />
<br />
=Culture and counterculture=<br />
*''Collapse'': Local and sublocal cultures; Only those large cultural corporations with strong local presence survive; Craftsmanship considered an art; Emphasis on live cultural events, encounters, Do it yourself; Virtual worlds and adventure, role-playing games.<br />
Counterculture: Nomadism; "Mad Max" communities.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': National cultures predominant and assertive, some reaching new "golden ages"; Censorship; Government and large corporations main patrons of the arts; Strongly enforced intellectual property; wargames. <br />
Counterculture: Militant peace-artists; Peacegames; Alternative communities.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Guild-based cultural identities mixed with a layer of global culture; Large world shows; Hollywood and Bollywood rule; Educational videogames; All public entities, including the UN, have large cultural budgets; Eco-art; Wikipedia; Multilingual translating machines; Esperanto makes a comeback. <br />
Counterculture: Punk and Pop; "Anti-boredom" movement; smokers.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': P2P culture; Palimpsests and sampling; User-generated contents; Diverse and ever-evolving pop cultures; Intertwined cultural communities, local, ethnic, religious, philosophical, artistic, hobbyist…; Culture as a market and as flow; Tension between "free culture" and intellectual property; Bio-art; Videogames as 10th art. <br />
Counterculture(s): Macho-Mafia culture; Culture of the last poor; Academic culture.<br />
<br />
=Religion=<br />
*''Collapse'': return to traditional value for one part of the population. Neo-magical street magic practice (sometimes of various ethnic origins) able to give hope in a better material situation.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Religion is seen by authorities as a tool to avoid dissatisfaction (opium for the people); good acceptation and help of the traditional religion of the place, but distrust of religious minorities, seen as element of subversion or even as a fifth column of foreign origin<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': extension of new age, new synthesis,holisitic practice, but defiance toward traditional forms of religion. Buddhism rising.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Extension of religious attitude favouring individualism and autonomy: psychedelia, neomagical movements, hoax religions ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic chaos magick], [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism discordianism], [http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/neophile.html “audience cults and neophilic irreligions”], ecological feminist cults such as wicca; "extreme" buddhism ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzogchen dzogchen], [http://www.bluesforpeace.com/beat_zen.htm "beat zen"]...); personal religions created from a cocktail of diverse influences... But also, multiplication of sects and fundamentalist communities because of the increased autonomy of local groups. Transhumanism of [http://www.math.tulane.edu/~tipler/ Frank Tipler]’s flavour; [http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml Singularitarianism]; [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Chardin Chardinism]. But decrease of traditional "moderate" forms of religion.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Research and innovation=<br />
*''Collapse'': Fractured scientific communities, lower rate of information interchange; Short-term focus on social and corporate needs; Lack of funding leads to very high selectivity as well as inventiveness on new ways to produce "tinsel research"; Small firms and communities remain important source of innovation, but have difficulties in reaching large enough markets; Incremental innovation; Local interdisciplinary clusters.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Military-industrial complex defines research agenda and provides most of the funding; Access to funds highly competitive; Strong secrecy and industrial property requirements and enforcement; Civil market entry subject to stringent vetting process (security, safety, prior patents, energy requirements, recycling…); Mostly large industrial projects + very small exploratory projects; National, disciplinary or single-industry clusters; Public national universities become locus of resistance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': High public-private R&D effort, with a focus on large projects with significant expected effects; Most research results into public domain; Corporate R&D strongly subsidized; Ethics and Sustainability committees; Constant evaluation of externalities and unintended systemic effects; International clusters; Very large international universities; Incremental and disruptive (but very controlled) innovation.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Most R&D is privately funded; Open-source and proprietary research in bitter competition; Project-based research with fast theory-experimentation cycles, modular projects, quick and incremental results; Users as innovators; Clusters a forgotten concept; Foundations, venture capital, "innovation angels".<br />
<br />
=ICT (information and communication technologies)=<br />
*''Collapse'': Advanced modelling, warning, risk-management and recovery systems; Telepresence and telework; Advancement of virtual worlds as escapes from daily realities; Stress on Internet interconnectivity and neutrality; Grassroots co-operative, P2P, C2C tools and applications; Locally manufactured "generic" IT tools<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Technologies of observation and control; Cyberwar; Secure networks and tools; DRM; Control of Internet communications; Optimization tools for resource planning and efficiency; Advanced virtual worlds as areas of peace; Quantum computing for encryption-decryption and military applications; Grassroots encrypted alternets spanning borders and surveillance-trumping tools; Rich communications and interfaces; R&D focused on military and law enforcement and on reduced resource-dependency<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': "Smart" objects, processes and logistics geared towards reduced consumption and lifecycle management; Disappearing technologies with rich interfaces, customizable within local and "guild" cultures; Open, neutral Internet; Rich collaborative environments at small and very large scales; Quantum computing for modelling; Public support of open-source; Transfer of repurposed, refurbished technologies to developing world<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Open, neutral and constantly evolving Internet; Mesh networks and P2P connectivity at the local level; Focus on "makeability", programmability, customization of technologies, components, software; Fablabs; Virtual worlds as working and trading spaces; Large public domain built outside of public institutions; Search for general-purpose quantum computers; Free software and open APIs; "IT generics"<br />
<br />
=Biotech=<br />
*''Collapse'': Focus on adapting to new conditions; Resistant and frugal GMOs, unsuccessfully combated by bio-farmers; Diagnosis and cures for human diseases; Global distrust towards "promethean" biotech, sometimes leading to backlash on research; Cloning forbidden in most places<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Focus on low resource consumption, high yield for crops and livestock; Human enhancement driven by military applications; Advances diagnosis; Proprietary research; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on safety and bioterror risks.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Focus on solving global problems: 2nd Green Revolution (GMO-based), CO2 absorbent algae fields, biofuel…; Biodiversity a secondary objective; Proactive and preventative medicine, including anti-aging; Fast gene sequencing, embryo selection and editing; Controlled cloning; Open-source knowledge, controlled experimentation; Prior authorization required for marketing of most new techniques, based on ethics and impact assessments.<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Focus on diversity, trial-and-error; Do-it-yourself sequencing and gene-editing based on open-source programs and machines; Cloning a commercial option for reproduction; Large market for fancy vegetables and pets, as well as personal enhancements, funds research on all areas of biotech; Proactive and curative medicine; Lack of prior controls create significant unintended effects.<br />
<br />
=Europe=<br />
*''Collapse'': Europe as a mediator, a solidarity mechanism between members and a crisis-management specialist; Tries to maintain free trade between members; Funds some R&D policy; UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries leave to pursue other alliances; Weak and constantly challenged governance, Nation-states and Regions in control; Common foreign policy and defence disbanded.<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Europe as a political force, after several Eastern countries have left to join Russia's sphere of influence; Common defence and border control; Focus on securing energy supplies; Friendly with Russian block despite human rights worries; Interventionist industrial and trade policy; ECB no longer independent; Strong governance with European government, qualified majorities; Foreign policy, defence, trade and energy mostly decided in Brussels; Large European projects on energy and research; Common agricultural policy maintained; European mergers and acquisitions encouraged; Corporations take large role in EU governance.<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Europe as a free trade and a cultural entity rather than a political force; Caught between global governance and Guilds; Russia and Turkey join; Focus on R&D, environmental and health recognition, culture and values; Co-development policy with ex-colonies, which become included in Common agricultural policy; Europe-wide ethics committees and sanitary authorities; The Euro becomes the major international currency; ECB remains independent but with a new goal, stable and sustainable growth and world responsibility; Little change in governance rules but many circles of "reinforced cooperation".<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Europe as one layer of networked governance among others, with no clear boundaries; Focus on open markets and trade as well as communications and other infrastructures; Multiple layers of membership allow entry of Norway, Ukraine, most of Maghreb, Argentina and India; Europe as a brand for humanistic values; Provides for a for negotiations and consensus-building, as well as evaluation expertise; Courts of justice gain importance relative to the Commission, Parliament and Council; Foreign policy limited to promoting brand and values, as well as taking pat in international for a; Common agricultural policy disbanded; Common defence focused on cyberwar and cybercrime.<br />
<br />
<br />
=Neuroscience and cognitive science (not completed)=<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': <br />
<br />
=What we have ''not'' done (not completed)=<br />
What technological possibilities or scientific breakthroughs have we deliberately refrained from developing?<br />
*''Collapse'': <br />
*''Long war(s)'': <br />
*''New Enlightenment'': <br />
*''Hundred Flowers'':<br />
<br />
=What is lost or forgotten?=<br />
*''Collapse'': Isolation; Hope; Biodiversity<br />
*''Long war(s)'': Light-mindedness; Open-source; Participation<br />
*''New Enlightenment'': Tobacco; SUVs; Fun; Biodiversity; Local languages<br />
*''Hundred Flowers'': Solidarity; Tradition</div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Cinum&diff=22864Cinum2007-07-23T16:02:28Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div><center>[[Image:Cinum07.jpg]]</center><br><br />
__NOTOC__<br />
<center><big>'''CI'NUM 2007 - THE DIGITAL CIVILIZATIONS FORUM'''<br />
<br>'''COLLABORATIVE SCENARIO THINKING SPACE - HORIZON: 2030'''</big></center><br><br />
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<br />
<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''ABOUT CI'NUM'''</span></big></center><br><br />
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'''Ci'Num is a global, multicultural, 3-year foresight process which intends to shed a new light on the future of our digital civilizations''', taking into account geopolitical, cultural and economic differences. Our focus is :<br />
*on the specific contribution of, and challenges related to, the emergence of ubiquitous and "intimate" technologies stemming from the convergence between nanotech, biotech, IT and cognitive science;<br />
*on the social appropriation and production of technology;<br />
* and on the ways, tools and methods through which we become ''empowered to shape our personal and collective futures'' - i.e., ''not'' on figuring out the most likely futures, but in recognizing uncertainties and looking for ways to maximize choices and opportunities in any given future.<br />
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'''2007: The final leg of a 3-year process'''<br />
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[http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2005 Ci'Num 2005] was about stock-taking on scientific and technical advances, globalization and its challenges, diversity and social evolution.<br />
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[http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/22.shtml Ci'Num 2006] centered around storybuilding: What are the possible futures of digital civilizations? What do these futures hinge upon? What new questions emerge from this story-telling?<br />
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''Ci'Num 2007 is about making choices and decisions:'' How can we imagine and be empowered to build our own paths towards the future , despite all the constraints, the uncertainties, all that could legitimately worry us into inaction - or submission?<br />
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'''Past editions'''<br />
* October 6-7, 2005 : [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/ci-num-2005 Conquests and Conflicts]<br />
* October 6-7, 2006 : [http://cinum.viabloga.com/news/22.shtml Visions of the Future]<br />
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<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''TAKE PART IN BUILDING CINUM'S 2030 SCENARIOS'''</span></big></center><br><br />
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*'''[[CiNum 2007 Driving Forces|Contribute to defining and describing the "Driving Forces" that will determine much of 2030]]'''<br />
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*'''[[CiNum 2030 scenarios|Read, edit, contribute to the 4 scenarios]]'''<br><br><br><br />
<center><big><span style="color:#FF7723;">'''PARTICIPATE IN CI'NUM 2007'S MAIN EVENT'''<br />
'''Margaux (France), October 5-7, 2007</span></big></center><br><br />
Information, program and registration on [http://www.cinum.org| Ci'Num's official website].<br />
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<center>[[image:Relais_margaux.jpg|300px|Relais Margaux]]</center><br />
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''Ci'Num is organised by [http://www.aecom.org/ Aquitaine Europe Communication] (AEC) in association with [http://www.fing.org FING](France's "Next-Generation Internet Foundation") and the [http://www.dtn.net Digital Thinking Network].''<br />
<br><br><br><br><br></div>Dayquirihttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:Relais_margaux.jpg&diff=22863File:Relais margaux.jpg2007-07-23T15:58:28Z<p>Dayquiri: </p>
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<div></div>Dayquiri