https://www.scenariothinking.org/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=Daniel&feedformat=atomScenarioThinking - User contributions [en]2024-03-29T00:01:44ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.37.0https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=RSM_Executive_MBA_2005&diff=8533RSM Executive MBA 20052005-12-09T07:29:25Z<p>Daniel: /* Groups */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the RSM Executive MBA 2005 class page.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
=Groups=<br />
<br />
'''Group 1'''<br />
Scenario in progress: [[The future of the Lowlands in 2025]]<br><br />
Petrick Pap - ESTJ<br><br />
Marije Bockholts - ENFP<br><br />
Harold Doorenbos - ESTJ<br><br />
Michael Torfs - INTP<br><br />
Christine Pans - ENTP<br><br />
<br />
'''Group2'''<br />
Scenario in progress:[[The Future of Hospitals in the Netherlands in 2015]]<br><br />
Coen Van Paassen ENFJ<br><br />
Jeffrey Sweeney ENTP<br><br />
Ton Jonker ENTP<br><br />
Gerben Hagenaars ENTP<br><br />
Anton Koonstra?<br><br />
<br />
'''Group 3'''<br><br />
Scenario in progress: [[The future of the global economy in 2015]]<br><br />
Eric Verbeek ENTJ<br><br />
Harry Schoots ESTP<br><br />
Maarten Post ENFP<br><br />
Wendi Mennen ESTJ<br><br />
Peter Groen INTP<br><br />
<br />
'''Group 4'''<br><br />
Scenario in progress: [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015]]<br><br><br />
Frans Verheij ESTJ<br><br />
Patrick Leers ENTP<br><br />
Krishna Sreerambhatla ENTJ<br><br />
Mattias Kjell ISTJ<br><br />
Daniel Rufer INTJ<br />
<br />
'''Group 5'''<br />
Scenario in progress: [[The future of communication in 2015]]<br><br />
<br />
Erik Lousberg ESTP <br><br />
Rolando Ranauro ENTP <br><br />
Giuseppe Bruni ENTP <br><br />
Jeroen Plink ESTJ <br><br />
Graham King I... <br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''Group 6'''<br />
Scenario in progress: [[The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020]]<br><br />
<br />
Maurits van den Berg ESTJ <br><br />
Eric Bruinsma ENTP <br><br />
Cuno de Witte ESTJ <br><br />
Claudio Papone ENTJ <br><br />
Radjes Boejharat ENTJ</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=13590The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-04T15:29:55Z<p>Daniel: /* The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story:[[Scenario BB]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story: [[Scenario BBM]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story: [[Scenario BBB]])<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Background and Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions - and Answers==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_potential_to_grow_based_on_new_available_technology&diff=13915Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology2005-12-03T16:17:22Z<p>Daniel: /* Web Resources: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description==<br />
The biotech industry are today only at the beginning of a long journey. Groundbreaking discoveries have been made in recent years (e.g. the mapping of the human DNA). The challenge for the industry is now to be able to transform the knowledge into successful drugs. <br />
<br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
• Biotech technology is in the embryonic stage<br><br />
• New technologies will allow more cures<br><br />
• Human genome (mapping of the human DNA) allows new cures<br><br />
• Increased availability of basic research<br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
• Transforming new technology into usable human treatments is very difficult<br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
At the state of the T-Ford! We are at the start of a journey to understand human DNA. <br><br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
http://www.physicspost.com/articles.php?articleId=197&page=2</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_ethical_pressure_(to_restrict_Biotech_Research)&diff=13911Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)2005-12-03T16:15:22Z<p>Daniel: /* Web Resources: */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Description==<br />
One of the biggest hurdles for the Biotech Industry is to overcome the power of ethical pressure. This is currently mainly visible in the US, but in general ethical issues are of increasing concern. The problem is that many different interest groups are involved, e.g. religious groups and anti-abortion movements, supported by media “sensationalisms”. The Biotech Industry has started to take measures on their own, creating self regulating industry bodies. In other words, ethical pressure is not to underestimate. <br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
• Unsuccessful cloning involving human embryos <br><br />
• Continued pressure from religious movements (especially in the US)<br><br />
• Continued sensationalism in media<br><br />
• Messing up subjects in the Media, i.e. not being able to make people understand biotech development invokes fear<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
• Acceptance of GMO food<br><br />
• Biotech gets a common theme (i.e. increased public knowledge) <br><br />
• Self regulation of the industry <br><br />
• Successful cure for certain deceases will improve the public opinion of biotrech research<br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
“The more we know, the more we understand and accept” <br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
<br />
http://www.biotechethics.ca/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/od/ethics/<br />
<br />
http://bioethics.gov<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/bioethics/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/aboutbio/history.asp<br />
<br />
http://www.cbhd.org/resources/biotech/mcconchie_2001-04-05.htm</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8424The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T16:54:14Z<p>Daniel: /* Research Questions */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story:[[Scenario BB]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story [[Scenario BBM]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story [[Scenario BBB]])<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Background and Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions - and Answers==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8413The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T16:53:23Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Topic */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story:[[Scenario BB]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story [[Scenario BBM]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story [[Scenario BBB]])<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Background and Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BB&diff=8451Scenario BB2005-12-02T16:52:33Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Diagram */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BB: Biotech Boost==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==<br />
[[Image:BB small.JPG]]<br>Click for larger image:[[Biotech Boost - Scenario Diagram]]</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Biotech_Boost_-_Scenario_Diagram&diff=13932Biotech Boost - Scenario Diagram2005-12-02T16:51:44Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:BB large.JPG]]</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Daniel2&diff=13934Daniel22005-12-02T16:51:18Z<p>Daniel: Daniel2 moved to Biotech Boost - Scenario Diagram</p>
<hr />
<div>#REDIRECT [[Biotech Boost - Scenario Diagram]]<br />
</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:BB_large.JPG&diff=13933File:BB large.JPG2005-12-02T16:50:44Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BB&diff=8411Scenario BB2005-12-02T16:50:21Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Diagram */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BB: Biotech Boost==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==<br />
[[Image:BB small.JPG]]<br>Click for larger image:</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:BB_small.JPG&diff=13929File:BB small.JPG2005-12-02T16:49:34Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBM&diff=13923Scenario BBM2005-12-02T16:48:42Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Diagram */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures==<br />
<br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before with classical pharmaceutical R&D. In addition, development periods for new drugs generally even became longer, due to increased security concerns and thus stricter approval practices by both, FDA and EMEA. Starting from around 2009, biotech was no longer considered a hot topic by the venture capital community, particularly in the US. In the Industry for medical application the border between classical pharma and biotechnology began to vanish. Nowadays (2015), this border has virtually disappeared. <br><br><br />
<br />
Cost pressure in healthcare inclusive the cost pressure for drugs and medical applications persisted. Efforts of the industry, to bring drug prices out of the public focus as being one of the major cost drivers in healthcare, failed. Healthcare costs now make around 30% of the US government spending, and in other countries there is not much difference. Governmental efforts in several countries to transfer a bigger part of the healthcare cost from the public household to private individuals met considerable resistance and could only be conducted to a small degree. These measures only had a slight impact on the development of healthcare costs. In addition, structural problems as well as adverse incentives in healthcare remained partly unsolved. As a consequence, pressure on the drug industry to reduce drug prices increased. Especially in the US, the government was no more willing, to accept that drug prices in the country exceeded those in other parts of the world by significant percentages. Parallel import had therefore been made possible. The same was the case in those European countries where drug prices exceeded those in the rest of the world. Health insurers and politicians at the same time enhanced the incentives for consumers to ask their doctors to prescribe generics wherever possible which was followed to a large degree. All this had the consequence that margins on drugs in general got smaller and cost pressure for the pharma- and biotech industries increased. Drug production and R&D activities began to get transferred to emerging markets. But still, profitability of products remained tight. <br><br><br />
<br />
Governments decreasingly saw biotechnology as the panacea to solving all the economic problems of their country. Biotechnology in medical applications was more and more becoming an industry like any other. Profitability established itself about on the level that previously had already been reached by most pharma multinationals but remained under steady pressure. <br><br><br />
<br />
Private Equity and Venture Capital investors decreasingly considered biotechnology as the central hot investment topic. Other topics like nanotechnology began to replace biotechnology as the most hyped investment themes from 2006 onwards. Today, in 2015, the investment community already fears the burst of a nanotech bubble. Increasingly, companies had to finance R&D activities in biotech out of their own pockets – which increased the pressure on the industry to consolidate. <br><br><br />
<br />
Ethical problems remained unsolved for a long time and the debate still keeps popping up from time to time. The 2005 presidential veto in the US against stem-cell research funding with public funds persisted and inhibited the implementation of a corresponding legal framework. For some time, both, the US biotech industry as well certain leading US economists feared that they could fall back against countries like the UK or south Korea – which had a much more permissive legal framework. However this discussion calmed down pretty soon. Transformation of basic research - including basic research in stem cell cloning - into marketable medical applications had proved to be much more difficult than expected and more difficult to plan than expected. In fact, some successful applications have been developed. A successful cure for bird flu was launched in 2009 and a new MS drug (which is still not able to heal the disease but which is able to delay the symptoms for much longer) was launched shortly after. But the high hopes set into the industry were not fulfilled. Common worldwide notion today is, that the innovation pace is not higher than the one we have been observing in the pharmaceutical industry for the last 20 years. Development costs still are around € 1billion for a successful application. Additionally only one project out of eight is successful. For these reasons, the ban of publicly funded stem-cell research had gotten out of focus as a major barrier hindering economic growth in the US. In other countries, there was no major boom in successful medical applications based upon stem cell research – the revolution is still to happen. <br><br><br />
<br />
Competition among countries in biotechnology can be considered as healthy. None of the G9 (former G7) and G13 (former G10) countries today considers biotechnology as their only key topic for economic development. The same is the case with most of the important emerging markets. In view of the fact that governmental sponsoring was producing encouraging results in basic research but that successful transformation of these into successful application and hence into jobs and economic growth did not take place at the pace that governments had hoped, they stopped pumping funds aggressively into biotech research. India and China became centres for outsourced applied R&D, they built up considerable manufacturing capacity for biotech drugs and built up an increasingly competitive local pharmaceutical industry. However, this is considered nowadays as a normal consequence of both globalisation and the trend towards outsourcing to these areas of the world. To summarize, support of biotechnology is no longer the first priority of governments in most of the important economic areas of the world. <br><br><br />
<br />
Borders between biotech and classical pharma have vanished. Biotechnology majors have expanded into the business with pharma generics. Likewise former pharma multinationals have built up vast biotech operations. Today it is no longer an issue whether a drug is based on biotechnology or whether it is an outcome of classical pharma research. The Biotech / Pharma industry grows with about 8-10% per year which is similar to the Growth Rate of Pharma between 2000 and 2005.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==<br />
<br />
[[Image:BBM small.JPG]]<br>Click for larger image:[[Biotech Business Matures - Scenario Diagram]]</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Biotech_Business_Matures_-_Scenario_Diagram&diff=13928Biotech Business Matures - Scenario Diagram2005-12-02T16:48:08Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:BBM large.JPG]]</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Biotech_Boost_-_Scenario_Diagram&diff=8410Biotech Boost - Scenario Diagram2005-12-02T16:47:50Z<p>Daniel: Daniel2 moved to Biotech Business Matures - Scenario Diagram</p>
<hr />
<div>#REDIRECT [[Biotech Business Matures - Scenario Diagram]]<br />
</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:BBM_large.JPG&diff=13931File:BBM large.JPG2005-12-02T16:47:09Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBM&diff=8408Scenario BBM2005-12-02T16:46:39Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Diagram */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures==<br />
<br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before with classical pharmaceutical R&D. In addition, development periods for new drugs generally even became longer, due to increased security concerns and thus stricter approval practices by both, FDA and EMEA. Starting from around 2009, biotech was no longer considered a hot topic by the venture capital community, particularly in the US. In the Industry for medical application the border between classical pharma and biotechnology began to vanish. Nowadays (2015), this border has virtually disappeared. <br><br><br />
<br />
Cost pressure in healthcare inclusive the cost pressure for drugs and medical applications persisted. Efforts of the industry, to bring drug prices out of the public focus as being one of the major cost drivers in healthcare, failed. Healthcare costs now make around 30% of the US government spending, and in other countries there is not much difference. Governmental efforts in several countries to transfer a bigger part of the healthcare cost from the public household to private individuals met considerable resistance and could only be conducted to a small degree. These measures only had a slight impact on the development of healthcare costs. In addition, structural problems as well as adverse incentives in healthcare remained partly unsolved. As a consequence, pressure on the drug industry to reduce drug prices increased. Especially in the US, the government was no more willing, to accept that drug prices in the country exceeded those in other parts of the world by significant percentages. Parallel import had therefore been made possible. The same was the case in those European countries where drug prices exceeded those in the rest of the world. Health insurers and politicians at the same time enhanced the incentives for consumers to ask their doctors to prescribe generics wherever possible which was followed to a large degree. All this had the consequence that margins on drugs in general got smaller and cost pressure for the pharma- and biotech industries increased. Drug production and R&D activities began to get transferred to emerging markets. But still, profitability of products remained tight. <br><br><br />
<br />
Governments decreasingly saw biotechnology as the panacea to solving all the economic problems of their country. Biotechnology in medical applications was more and more becoming an industry like any other. Profitability established itself about on the level that previously had already been reached by most pharma multinationals but remained under steady pressure. <br><br><br />
<br />
Private Equity and Venture Capital investors decreasingly considered biotechnology as the central hot investment topic. Other topics like nanotechnology began to replace biotechnology as the most hyped investment themes from 2006 onwards. Today, in 2015, the investment community already fears the burst of a nanotech bubble. Increasingly, companies had to finance R&D activities in biotech out of their own pockets – which increased the pressure on the industry to consolidate. <br><br><br />
<br />
Ethical problems remained unsolved for a long time and the debate still keeps popping up from time to time. The 2005 presidential veto in the US against stem-cell research funding with public funds persisted and inhibited the implementation of a corresponding legal framework. For some time, both, the US biotech industry as well certain leading US economists feared that they could fall back against countries like the UK or south Korea – which had a much more permissive legal framework. However this discussion calmed down pretty soon. Transformation of basic research - including basic research in stem cell cloning - into marketable medical applications had proved to be much more difficult than expected and more difficult to plan than expected. In fact, some successful applications have been developed. A successful cure for bird flu was launched in 2009 and a new MS drug (which is still not able to heal the disease but which is able to delay the symptoms for much longer) was launched shortly after. But the high hopes set into the industry were not fulfilled. Common worldwide notion today is, that the innovation pace is not higher than the one we have been observing in the pharmaceutical industry for the last 20 years. Development costs still are around € 1billion for a successful application. Additionally only one project out of eight is successful. For these reasons, the ban of publicly funded stem-cell research had gotten out of focus as a major barrier hindering economic growth in the US. In other countries, there was no major boom in successful medical applications based upon stem cell research – the revolution is still to happen. <br><br><br />
<br />
Competition among countries in biotechnology can be considered as healthy. None of the G9 (former G7) and G13 (former G10) countries today considers biotechnology as their only key topic for economic development. The same is the case with most of the important emerging markets. In view of the fact that governmental sponsoring was producing encouraging results in basic research but that successful transformation of these into successful application and hence into jobs and economic growth did not take place at the pace that governments had hoped, they stopped pumping funds aggressively into biotech research. India and China became centres for outsourced applied R&D, they built up considerable manufacturing capacity for biotech drugs and built up an increasingly competitive local pharmaceutical industry. However, this is considered nowadays as a normal consequence of both globalisation and the trend towards outsourcing to these areas of the world. To summarize, support of biotechnology is no longer the first priority of governments in most of the important economic areas of the world. <br><br><br />
<br />
Borders between biotech and classical pharma have vanished. Biotechnology majors have expanded into the business with pharma generics. Likewise former pharma multinationals have built up vast biotech operations. Today it is no longer an issue whether a drug is based on biotechnology or whether it is an outcome of classical pharma research. The Biotech / Pharma industry grows with about 8-10% per year which is similar to the Growth Rate of Pharma between 2000 and 2005.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==<br />
<br />
[[Image:BBM small.JPG]]<br>Click for larger image:</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:BBM_small.JPG&diff=13930File:BBM small.JPG2005-12-02T16:45:42Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBB&diff=13924Scenario BBB2005-12-02T16:44:55Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Diagram */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
<br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. <br><br><br />
<br />
2005 was followed by difficult years for the biotech industry. Transfer of fundamental research into applications was much more complex than expected and development cost exceeded expectations by far. Also, both FDA and EMEA got much stricter in their approval practices and in monitoring drugs, after several spectacular cases where drugs had to be withdrawn from the market (the most spectacular cases were VioX and Tysabri). The negative impact on industry reputation triggered by these withdrawals was much more dramatic than in earlier years. These may have been the main reasons that explain why the industry failed to bring any new blockbuster drugs to the market. <br><br><br />
<br />
At the same time, a number of privately funded biotech companies, untouched by official regulations, announced that they were pursuing experiments with human cloning, media attention and public reactions increased dramatically. People, especially religious movements in the US, began demonstrating and received a vast amount of media attention as a result. The focus of the demonstrations were not directly related to details and potential hazards of stem cell research, but instead more focused on the potential horrors of cloning as well as on abortion issues. The situation eventually worsened, when information and pictures appeared of failed cloning experiments involving human embryos. Most of the global (and national) ethnic and regulatory bodies in the world were in uproar and demanded a complete stop of human cloning R&D, huge penalties to the companies involved and imprisonment of the responsible managers and researchers. The media also worsened the situation by “sensationalism” journalism, increasing the fear in the public and increasing the pressure on politicians to address the problems. <br><br><br />
<br />
After the uproar that followed the unsuccessful cloning experiments, biotech regulation had clearly become a hot political topic. Most developed nations started to impose laws on biotech R&D and detailed monitoring mechanisms were adapted to prevent further “unethical” and “dangerous” development projects in the future. The imposed restrictions led to a draining of the capital that had been the foundation of the successful growth in the biotech industry up to 2010. Governments saw themselves forced to cut R&D spending on biotech projects, because of pressure from the lobbying of ethical and religious groups and from the increasing media attention. The lack of financial governmental support also caused the venture capital industry to turn their backs on the biotech industry. The fact that venture capitalists started to look elsewhere was also the result of the many new and exciting “hot” industries that started to emerge around 2010 (e.g. nanotechnology). Furthermore, the first years after 2010 saw again a downturn in the economy, which caused further drainage of funding sources. This situation forced most biotech companies to focus on a few “money generating” products, and the aggressive R&D projects which were attractive to investors were no longer feasible for most companies due to financial constraints. As a result, more and more biotech companies were forced into liquidation, and many were desperately seeking buyers (many comments were made to the analogy of the dot.com situation in the early years of the millennium). The biotech industry went through a dramatic consolidation. Eventually, in 2015, the total market cap of the biotech industry was merely 250 billion $. The few successful biotech companies that had survived the industry downturn had seen their stock prices tumble, and most were taken over by major traditional medical companies. The biotech industry was no longer what it once had been.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==<br />
[[Image:BBB small.JPG]]<br>Click for larger image:[[Biotech Bubble Burst - Scenario Diagram]]</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBB&diff=8405Scenario BBB2005-12-02T16:44:36Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Diagram */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
<br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. <br><br><br />
<br />
2005 was followed by difficult years for the biotech industry. Transfer of fundamental research into applications was much more complex than expected and development cost exceeded expectations by far. Also, both FDA and EMEA got much stricter in their approval practices and in monitoring drugs, after several spectacular cases where drugs had to be withdrawn from the market (the most spectacular cases were VioX and Tysabri). The negative impact on industry reputation triggered by these withdrawals was much more dramatic than in earlier years. These may have been the main reasons that explain why the industry failed to bring any new blockbuster drugs to the market. <br><br><br />
<br />
At the same time, a number of privately funded biotech companies, untouched by official regulations, announced that they were pursuing experiments with human cloning, media attention and public reactions increased dramatically. People, especially religious movements in the US, began demonstrating and received a vast amount of media attention as a result. The focus of the demonstrations were not directly related to details and potential hazards of stem cell research, but instead more focused on the potential horrors of cloning as well as on abortion issues. The situation eventually worsened, when information and pictures appeared of failed cloning experiments involving human embryos. Most of the global (and national) ethnic and regulatory bodies in the world were in uproar and demanded a complete stop of human cloning R&D, huge penalties to the companies involved and imprisonment of the responsible managers and researchers. The media also worsened the situation by “sensationalism” journalism, increasing the fear in the public and increasing the pressure on politicians to address the problems. <br><br><br />
<br />
After the uproar that followed the unsuccessful cloning experiments, biotech regulation had clearly become a hot political topic. Most developed nations started to impose laws on biotech R&D and detailed monitoring mechanisms were adapted to prevent further “unethical” and “dangerous” development projects in the future. The imposed restrictions led to a draining of the capital that had been the foundation of the successful growth in the biotech industry up to 2010. Governments saw themselves forced to cut R&D spending on biotech projects, because of pressure from the lobbying of ethical and religious groups and from the increasing media attention. The lack of financial governmental support also caused the venture capital industry to turn their backs on the biotech industry. The fact that venture capitalists started to look elsewhere was also the result of the many new and exciting “hot” industries that started to emerge around 2010 (e.g. nanotechnology). Furthermore, the first years after 2010 saw again a downturn in the economy, which caused further drainage of funding sources. This situation forced most biotech companies to focus on a few “money generating” products, and the aggressive R&D projects which were attractive to investors were no longer feasible for most companies due to financial constraints. As a result, more and more biotech companies were forced into liquidation, and many were desperately seeking buyers (many comments were made to the analogy of the dot.com situation in the early years of the millennium). The biotech industry went through a dramatic consolidation. Eventually, in 2015, the total market cap of the biotech industry was merely 250 billion $. The few successful biotech companies that had survived the industry downturn had seen their stock prices tumble, and most were taken over by major traditional medical companies. The biotech industry was no longer what it once had been.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==<br />
[[Image:BBB small.JPG]]Click for larger image:[[Biotech Bubble Burst - Scenario Diagram]]</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Biotech_Bubble_Burst_-_Scenario_Diagram&diff=13925Biotech Bubble Burst - Scenario Diagram2005-12-02T16:44:01Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:BBB large.JPG]]</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Biotech_Bubble_Burst_-_Scenario_Diagram&diff=8403Biotech Bubble Burst - Scenario Diagram2005-12-02T16:43:39Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div>Image:BBB large.JPG</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Biotech_Business_Matures_-_Scenario_Diagram&diff=8407Biotech Business Matures - Scenario Diagram2005-12-02T16:43:19Z<p>Daniel: Daniel2 moved to Biotech Bubble Burst - Scenario Diagram</p>
<hr />
<div>#REDIRECT [[Biotech Bubble Burst - Scenario Diagram]]<br />
</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:BBB_large.JPG&diff=13927File:BBB large.JPG2005-12-02T16:42:21Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBB&diff=8404Scenario BBB2005-12-02T16:39:12Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Diagram */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
<br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. <br><br><br />
<br />
2005 was followed by difficult years for the biotech industry. Transfer of fundamental research into applications was much more complex than expected and development cost exceeded expectations by far. Also, both FDA and EMEA got much stricter in their approval practices and in monitoring drugs, after several spectacular cases where drugs had to be withdrawn from the market (the most spectacular cases were VioX and Tysabri). The negative impact on industry reputation triggered by these withdrawals was much more dramatic than in earlier years. These may have been the main reasons that explain why the industry failed to bring any new blockbuster drugs to the market. <br><br><br />
<br />
At the same time, a number of privately funded biotech companies, untouched by official regulations, announced that they were pursuing experiments with human cloning, media attention and public reactions increased dramatically. People, especially religious movements in the US, began demonstrating and received a vast amount of media attention as a result. The focus of the demonstrations were not directly related to details and potential hazards of stem cell research, but instead more focused on the potential horrors of cloning as well as on abortion issues. The situation eventually worsened, when information and pictures appeared of failed cloning experiments involving human embryos. Most of the global (and national) ethnic and regulatory bodies in the world were in uproar and demanded a complete stop of human cloning R&D, huge penalties to the companies involved and imprisonment of the responsible managers and researchers. The media also worsened the situation by “sensationalism” journalism, increasing the fear in the public and increasing the pressure on politicians to address the problems. <br><br><br />
<br />
After the uproar that followed the unsuccessful cloning experiments, biotech regulation had clearly become a hot political topic. Most developed nations started to impose laws on biotech R&D and detailed monitoring mechanisms were adapted to prevent further “unethical” and “dangerous” development projects in the future. The imposed restrictions led to a draining of the capital that had been the foundation of the successful growth in the biotech industry up to 2010. Governments saw themselves forced to cut R&D spending on biotech projects, because of pressure from the lobbying of ethical and religious groups and from the increasing media attention. The lack of financial governmental support also caused the venture capital industry to turn their backs on the biotech industry. The fact that venture capitalists started to look elsewhere was also the result of the many new and exciting “hot” industries that started to emerge around 2010 (e.g. nanotechnology). Furthermore, the first years after 2010 saw again a downturn in the economy, which caused further drainage of funding sources. This situation forced most biotech companies to focus on a few “money generating” products, and the aggressive R&D projects which were attractive to investors were no longer feasible for most companies due to financial constraints. As a result, more and more biotech companies were forced into liquidation, and many were desperately seeking buyers (many comments were made to the analogy of the dot.com situation in the early years of the millennium). The biotech industry went through a dramatic consolidation. Eventually, in 2015, the total market cap of the biotech industry was merely 250 billion $. The few successful biotech companies that had survived the industry downturn had seen their stock prices tumble, and most were taken over by major traditional medical companies. The biotech industry was no longer what it once had been.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==<br />
[[Image:BBB small.JPG]]Click for larger image:</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:BBB_small.JPG&diff=13926File:BBB small.JPG2005-12-02T16:37:59Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBB&diff=8401Scenario BBB2005-12-02T16:36:13Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
<br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. <br><br><br />
<br />
2005 was followed by difficult years for the biotech industry. Transfer of fundamental research into applications was much more complex than expected and development cost exceeded expectations by far. Also, both FDA and EMEA got much stricter in their approval practices and in monitoring drugs, after several spectacular cases where drugs had to be withdrawn from the market (the most spectacular cases were VioX and Tysabri). The negative impact on industry reputation triggered by these withdrawals was much more dramatic than in earlier years. These may have been the main reasons that explain why the industry failed to bring any new blockbuster drugs to the market. <br><br><br />
<br />
At the same time, a number of privately funded biotech companies, untouched by official regulations, announced that they were pursuing experiments with human cloning, media attention and public reactions increased dramatically. People, especially religious movements in the US, began demonstrating and received a vast amount of media attention as a result. The focus of the demonstrations were not directly related to details and potential hazards of stem cell research, but instead more focused on the potential horrors of cloning as well as on abortion issues. The situation eventually worsened, when information and pictures appeared of failed cloning experiments involving human embryos. Most of the global (and national) ethnic and regulatory bodies in the world were in uproar and demanded a complete stop of human cloning R&D, huge penalties to the companies involved and imprisonment of the responsible managers and researchers. The media also worsened the situation by “sensationalism” journalism, increasing the fear in the public and increasing the pressure on politicians to address the problems. <br><br><br />
<br />
After the uproar that followed the unsuccessful cloning experiments, biotech regulation had clearly become a hot political topic. Most developed nations started to impose laws on biotech R&D and detailed monitoring mechanisms were adapted to prevent further “unethical” and “dangerous” development projects in the future. The imposed restrictions led to a draining of the capital that had been the foundation of the successful growth in the biotech industry up to 2010. Governments saw themselves forced to cut R&D spending on biotech projects, because of pressure from the lobbying of ethical and religious groups and from the increasing media attention. The lack of financial governmental support also caused the venture capital industry to turn their backs on the biotech industry. The fact that venture capitalists started to look elsewhere was also the result of the many new and exciting “hot” industries that started to emerge around 2010 (e.g. nanotechnology). Furthermore, the first years after 2010 saw again a downturn in the economy, which caused further drainage of funding sources. This situation forced most biotech companies to focus on a few “money generating” products, and the aggressive R&D projects which were attractive to investors were no longer feasible for most companies due to financial constraints. As a result, more and more biotech companies were forced into liquidation, and many were desperately seeking buyers (many comments were made to the analogy of the dot.com situation in the early years of the millennium). The biotech industry went through a dramatic consolidation. Eventually, in 2015, the total market cap of the biotech industry was merely 250 billion $. The few successful biotech companies that had survived the industry downturn had seen their stock prices tumble, and most were taken over by major traditional medical companies. The biotech industry was no longer what it once had been.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBM&diff=8406Scenario BBM2005-12-02T16:35:47Z<p>Daniel: /* Biotechnology for Medical Applications - Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures==<br />
<br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before with classical pharmaceutical R&D. In addition, development periods for new drugs generally even became longer, due to increased security concerns and thus stricter approval practices by both, FDA and EMEA. Starting from around 2009, biotech was no longer considered a hot topic by the venture capital community, particularly in the US. In the Industry for medical application the border between classical pharma and biotechnology began to vanish. Nowadays (2015), this border has virtually disappeared. <br><br><br />
<br />
Cost pressure in healthcare inclusive the cost pressure for drugs and medical applications persisted. Efforts of the industry, to bring drug prices out of the public focus as being one of the major cost drivers in healthcare, failed. Healthcare costs now make around 30% of the US government spending, and in other countries there is not much difference. Governmental efforts in several countries to transfer a bigger part of the healthcare cost from the public household to private individuals met considerable resistance and could only be conducted to a small degree. These measures only had a slight impact on the development of healthcare costs. In addition, structural problems as well as adverse incentives in healthcare remained partly unsolved. As a consequence, pressure on the drug industry to reduce drug prices increased. Especially in the US, the government was no more willing, to accept that drug prices in the country exceeded those in other parts of the world by significant percentages. Parallel import had therefore been made possible. The same was the case in those European countries where drug prices exceeded those in the rest of the world. Health insurers and politicians at the same time enhanced the incentives for consumers to ask their doctors to prescribe generics wherever possible which was followed to a large degree. All this had the consequence that margins on drugs in general got smaller and cost pressure for the pharma- and biotech industries increased. Drug production and R&D activities began to get transferred to emerging markets. But still, profitability of products remained tight. <br><br><br />
<br />
Governments decreasingly saw biotechnology as the panacea to solving all the economic problems of their country. Biotechnology in medical applications was more and more becoming an industry like any other. Profitability established itself about on the level that previously had already been reached by most pharma multinationals but remained under steady pressure. <br><br><br />
<br />
Private Equity and Venture Capital investors decreasingly considered biotechnology as the central hot investment topic. Other topics like nanotechnology began to replace biotechnology as the most hyped investment themes from 2006 onwards. Today, in 2015, the investment community already fears the burst of a nanotech bubble. Increasingly, companies had to finance R&D activities in biotech out of their own pockets – which increased the pressure on the industry to consolidate. <br><br><br />
<br />
Ethical problems remained unsolved for a long time and the debate still keeps popping up from time to time. The 2005 presidential veto in the US against stem-cell research funding with public funds persisted and inhibited the implementation of a corresponding legal framework. For some time, both, the US biotech industry as well certain leading US economists feared that they could fall back against countries like the UK or south Korea – which had a much more permissive legal framework. However this discussion calmed down pretty soon. Transformation of basic research - including basic research in stem cell cloning - into marketable medical applications had proved to be much more difficult than expected and more difficult to plan than expected. In fact, some successful applications have been developed. A successful cure for bird flu was launched in 2009 and a new MS drug (which is still not able to heal the disease but which is able to delay the symptoms for much longer) was launched shortly after. But the high hopes set into the industry were not fulfilled. Common worldwide notion today is, that the innovation pace is not higher than the one we have been observing in the pharmaceutical industry for the last 20 years. Development costs still are around € 1billion for a successful application. Additionally only one project out of eight is successful. For these reasons, the ban of publicly funded stem-cell research had gotten out of focus as a major barrier hindering economic growth in the US. In other countries, there was no major boom in successful medical applications based upon stem cell research – the revolution is still to happen. <br><br><br />
<br />
Competition among countries in biotechnology can be considered as healthy. None of the G9 (former G7) and G13 (former G10) countries today considers biotechnology as their only key topic for economic development. The same is the case with most of the important emerging markets. In view of the fact that governmental sponsoring was producing encouraging results in basic research but that successful transformation of these into successful application and hence into jobs and economic growth did not take place at the pace that governments had hoped, they stopped pumping funds aggressively into biotech research. India and China became centres for outsourced applied R&D, they built up considerable manufacturing capacity for biotech drugs and built up an increasingly competitive local pharmaceutical industry. However, this is considered nowadays as a normal consequence of both globalisation and the trend towards outsourcing to these areas of the world. To summarize, support of biotechnology is no longer the first priority of governments in most of the important economic areas of the world. <br><br><br />
<br />
Borders between biotech and classical pharma have vanished. Biotechnology majors have expanded into the business with pharma generics. Likewise former pharma multinationals have built up vast biotech operations. Today it is no longer an issue whether a drug is based on biotechnology or whether it is an outcome of classical pharma research. The Biotech / Pharma industry grows with about 8-10% per year which is similar to the Growth Rate of Pharma between 2000 and 2005.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BB&diff=8409Scenario BB2005-12-02T16:35:10Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BB: Biotech Boost */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015 - Scenario BB: Biotech Boost==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBM&diff=8399Scenario BBM2005-12-02T16:34:29Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Biotechnology for Medical Applications - Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures==<br />
<br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before with classical pharmaceutical R&D. In addition, development periods for new drugs generally even became longer, due to increased security concerns and thus stricter approval practices by both, FDA and EMEA. Starting from around 2009, biotech was no longer considered a hot topic by the venture capital community, particularly in the US. In the Industry for medical application the border between classical pharma and biotechnology began to vanish. Nowadays (2015), this border has virtually disappeared. <br><br><br />
<br />
Cost pressure in healthcare inclusive the cost pressure for drugs and medical applications persisted. Efforts of the industry, to bring drug prices out of the public focus as being one of the major cost drivers in healthcare, failed. Healthcare costs now make around 30% of the US government spending, and in other countries there is not much difference. Governmental efforts in several countries to transfer a bigger part of the healthcare cost from the public household to private individuals met considerable resistance and could only be conducted to a small degree. These measures only had a slight impact on the development of healthcare costs. In addition, structural problems as well as adverse incentives in healthcare remained partly unsolved. As a consequence, pressure on the drug industry to reduce drug prices increased. Especially in the US, the government was no more willing, to accept that drug prices in the country exceeded those in other parts of the world by significant percentages. Parallel import had therefore been made possible. The same was the case in those European countries where drug prices exceeded those in the rest of the world. Health insurers and politicians at the same time enhanced the incentives for consumers to ask their doctors to prescribe generics wherever possible which was followed to a large degree. All this had the consequence that margins on drugs in general got smaller and cost pressure for the pharma- and biotech industries increased. Drug production and R&D activities began to get transferred to emerging markets. But still, profitability of products remained tight. <br><br><br />
<br />
Governments decreasingly saw biotechnology as the panacea to solving all the economic problems of their country. Biotechnology in medical applications was more and more becoming an industry like any other. Profitability established itself about on the level that previously had already been reached by most pharma multinationals but remained under steady pressure. <br><br><br />
<br />
Private Equity and Venture Capital investors decreasingly considered biotechnology as the central hot investment topic. Other topics like nanotechnology began to replace biotechnology as the most hyped investment themes from 2006 onwards. Today, in 2015, the investment community already fears the burst of a nanotech bubble. Increasingly, companies had to finance R&D activities in biotech out of their own pockets – which increased the pressure on the industry to consolidate. <br><br><br />
<br />
Ethical problems remained unsolved for a long time and the debate still keeps popping up from time to time. The 2005 presidential veto in the US against stem-cell research funding with public funds persisted and inhibited the implementation of a corresponding legal framework. For some time, both, the US biotech industry as well certain leading US economists feared that they could fall back against countries like the UK or south Korea – which had a much more permissive legal framework. However this discussion calmed down pretty soon. Transformation of basic research - including basic research in stem cell cloning - into marketable medical applications had proved to be much more difficult than expected and more difficult to plan than expected. In fact, some successful applications have been developed. A successful cure for bird flu was launched in 2009 and a new MS drug (which is still not able to heal the disease but which is able to delay the symptoms for much longer) was launched shortly after. But the high hopes set into the industry were not fulfilled. Common worldwide notion today is, that the innovation pace is not higher than the one we have been observing in the pharmaceutical industry for the last 20 years. Development costs still are around € 1billion for a successful application. Additionally only one project out of eight is successful. For these reasons, the ban of publicly funded stem-cell research had gotten out of focus as a major barrier hindering economic growth in the US. In other countries, there was no major boom in successful medical applications based upon stem cell research – the revolution is still to happen. <br><br><br />
<br />
Competition among countries in biotechnology can be considered as healthy. None of the G9 (former G7) and G13 (former G10) countries today considers biotechnology as their only key topic for economic development. The same is the case with most of the important emerging markets. In view of the fact that governmental sponsoring was producing encouraging results in basic research but that successful transformation of these into successful application and hence into jobs and economic growth did not take place at the pace that governments had hoped, they stopped pumping funds aggressively into biotech research. India and China became centres for outsourced applied R&D, they built up considerable manufacturing capacity for biotech drugs and built up an increasingly competitive local pharmaceutical industry. However, this is considered nowadays as a normal consequence of both globalisation and the trend towards outsourcing to these areas of the world. To summarize, support of biotechnology is no longer the first priority of governments in most of the important economic areas of the world. <br><br><br />
<br />
Borders between biotech and classical pharma have vanished. Biotechnology majors have expanded into the business with pharma generics. Likewise former pharma multinationals have built up vast biotech operations. Today it is no longer an issue whether a drug is based on biotechnology or whether it is an outcome of classical pharma research. The Biotech / Pharma industry grows with about 8-10% per year which is similar to the Growth Rate of Pharma between 2000 and 2005.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBM&diff=8397Scenario BBM2005-12-02T16:33:33Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures==<br />
<br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before with classical pharmaceutical R&D. In addition, development periods for new drugs generally even became longer, due to increased security concerns and thus stricter approval practices by both, FDA and EMEA. Starting from around 2009, biotech was no longer considered a hot topic by the venture capital community, particularly in the US. In the Industry for medical application the border between classical pharma and biotechnology began to vanish. Nowadays (2015), this border has virtually disappeared. <br><br><br />
<br />
Cost pressure in healthcare inclusive the cost pressure for drugs and medical applications persisted. Efforts of the industry, to bring drug prices out of the public focus as being one of the major cost drivers in healthcare, failed. Healthcare costs now make around 30% of the US government spending, and in other countries there is not much difference. Governmental efforts in several countries to transfer a bigger part of the healthcare cost from the public household to private individuals met considerable resistance and could only be conducted to a small degree. These measures only had a slight impact on the development of healthcare costs. In addition, structural problems as well as adverse incentives in healthcare remained partly unsolved. As a consequence, pressure on the drug industry to reduce drug prices increased. Especially in the US, the government was no more willing, to accept that drug prices in the country exceeded those in other parts of the world by significant percentages. Parallel import had therefore been made possible. The same was the case in those European countries where drug prices exceeded those in the rest of the world. Health insurers and politicians at the same time enhanced the incentives for consumers to ask their doctors to prescribe generics wherever possible which was followed to a large degree. All this had the consequence that margins on drugs in general got smaller and cost pressure for the pharma- and biotech industries increased. Drug production and R&D activities began to get transferred to emerging markets. But still, profitability of products remained tight. <br><br><br />
<br />
Governments decreasingly saw biotechnology as the panacea to solving all the economic problems of their country. Biotechnology in medical applications was more and more becoming an industry like any other. Profitability established itself about on the level that previously had already been reached by most pharma multinationals but remained under steady pressure. <br><br><br />
<br />
Private Equity and Venture Capital investors decreasingly considered biotechnology as the central hot investment topic. Other topics like nanotechnology began to replace biotechnology as the most hyped investment themes from 2006 onwards. Today, in 2015, the investment community already fears the burst of a nanotech bubble. Increasingly, companies had to finance R&D activities in biotech out of their own pockets – which increased the pressure on the industry to consolidate. <br><br><br />
<br />
Ethical problems remained unsolved for a long time and the debate still keeps popping up from time to time. The 2005 presidential veto in the US against stem-cell research funding with public funds persisted and inhibited the implementation of a corresponding legal framework. For some time, both, the US biotech industry as well certain leading US economists feared that they could fall back against countries like the UK or south Korea – which had a much more permissive legal framework. However this discussion calmed down pretty soon. Transformation of basic research - including basic research in stem cell cloning - into marketable medical applications had proved to be much more difficult than expected and more difficult to plan than expected. In fact, some successful applications have been developed. A successful cure for bird flu was launched in 2009 and a new MS drug (which is still not able to heal the disease but which is able to delay the symptoms for much longer) was launched shortly after. But the high hopes set into the industry were not fulfilled. Common worldwide notion today is, that the innovation pace is not higher than the one we have been observing in the pharmaceutical industry for the last 20 years. Development costs still are around € 1billion for a successful application. Additionally only one project out of eight is successful. For these reasons, the ban of publicly funded stem-cell research had gotten out of focus as a major barrier hindering economic growth in the US. In other countries, there was no major boom in successful medical applications based upon stem cell research – the revolution is still to happen. <br><br><br />
<br />
Competition among countries in biotechnology can be considered as healthy. None of the G9 (former G7) and G13 (former G10) countries today considers biotechnology as their only key topic for economic development. The same is the case with most of the important emerging markets. In view of the fact that governmental sponsoring was producing encouraging results in basic research but that successful transformation of these into successful application and hence into jobs and economic growth did not take place at the pace that governments had hoped, they stopped pumping funds aggressively into biotech research. India and China became centres for outsourced applied R&D, they built up considerable manufacturing capacity for biotech drugs and built up an increasingly competitive local pharmaceutical industry. However, this is considered nowadays as a normal consequence of both globalisation and the trend towards outsourcing to these areas of the world. To summarize, support of biotechnology is no longer the first priority of governments in most of the important economic areas of the world. <br><br><br />
<br />
Borders between biotech and classical pharma have vanished. Biotechnology majors have expanded into the business with pharma generics. Likewise former pharma multinationals have built up vast biotech operations. Today it is no longer an issue whether a drug is based on biotechnology or whether it is an outcome of classical pharma research. The Biotech / Pharma industry grows with about 8-10% per year which is similar to the Growth Rate of Pharma between 2000 and 2005.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBB&diff=8400Scenario BBB2005-12-02T16:29:27Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
<br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. <br><br><br />
<br />
2005 was followed by difficult years for the biotech industry. Transfer of fundamental research into applications was much more complex than expected and development cost exceeded expectations by far. Also, both FDA and EMEA got much stricter in their approval practices and in monitoring drugs, after several spectacular cases where drugs had to be withdrawn from the market (the most spectacular cases were VioX and Tysabri). The negative impact on industry reputation triggered by these withdrawals was much more dramatic than in earlier years. These may have been the main reasons that explain why the industry failed to bring any new blockbuster drugs to the market. <br><br><br />
<br />
At the same time, a number of privately funded biotech companies, untouched by official regulations, announced that they were pursuing experiments with human cloning, media attention and public reactions increased dramatically. People, especially religious movements in the US, began demonstrating and received a vast amount of media attention as a result. The focus of the demonstrations were not directly related to details and potential hazards of stem cell research, but instead more focused on the potential horrors of cloning as well as on abortion issues. The situation eventually worsened, when information and pictures appeared of failed cloning experiments involving human embryos. Most of the global (and national) ethnic and regulatory bodies in the world were in uproar and demanded a complete stop of human cloning R&D, huge penalties to the companies involved and imprisonment of the responsible managers and researchers. The media also worsened the situation by “sensationalism” journalism, increasing the fear in the public and increasing the pressure on politicians to address the problems. <br><br><br />
<br />
After the uproar that followed the unsuccessful cloning experiments, biotech regulation had clearly become a hot political topic. Most developed nations started to impose laws on biotech R&D and detailed monitoring mechanisms were adapted to prevent further “unethical” and “dangerous” development projects in the future. The imposed restrictions led to a draining of the capital that had been the foundation of the successful growth in the biotech industry up to 2010. Governments saw themselves forced to cut R&D spending on biotech projects, because of pressure from the lobbying of ethical and religious groups and from the increasing media attention. The lack of financial governmental support also caused the venture capital industry to turn their backs on the biotech industry. The fact that venture capitalists started to look elsewhere was also the result of the many new and exciting “hot” industries that started to emerge around 2010 (e.g. nanotechnology). Furthermore, the first years after 2010 saw again a downturn in the economy, which caused further drainage of funding sources. This situation forced most biotech companies to focus on a few “money generating” products, and the aggressive R&D projects which were attractive to investors were no longer feasible for most companies due to financial constraints. As a result, more and more biotech companies were forced into liquidation, and many were desperately seeking buyers (many comments were made to the analogy of the dot.com situation in the early years of the millennium). The biotech industry went through a dramatic consolidation. Eventually, in 2015, the total market cap of the biotech industry was merely 250 billion $. The few successful biotech companies that had survived the industry downturn had seen their stock prices tumble, and most were taken over by major traditional medical companies. The biotech industry was no longer what it once had been.<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8412The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T16:28:01Z<p>Daniel: /* The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story:[[Scenario BB]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story [[Scenario BBM]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story [[Scenario BBB]])<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBB&diff=8395Scenario BBB2005-12-02T16:27:07Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Biotech_Bubble_Burst_-_Scenario_Diagram&diff=8402Biotech Bubble Burst - Scenario Diagram2005-12-02T16:26:31Z<p>Daniel: Daniel2 moved to Scenario BBB</p>
<hr />
<div>#REDIRECT [[Scenario BBB]]<br />
</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BB&diff=8398Scenario BB2005-12-02T16:25:46Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BB: Biotech Bubble Burst */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Scenario BB: Biotech Boost==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8394The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T16:25:17Z<p>Daniel: /* The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story:[[Scenario BB]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story [[Scenario BBM]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story...)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBM&diff=8396Scenario BBM2005-12-02T16:24:04Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BB: Biotech Business Matures */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBM&diff=8390Scenario BBM2005-12-02T16:23:22Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Scenario BB: Biotech Business Matures==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBB&diff=8393Scenario BBB2005-12-02T16:22:41Z<p>Daniel: Daniel2 moved to Scenario BBM</p>
<hr />
<div>#REDIRECT [[Scenario BBM]]<br />
</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8391The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T16:21:16Z<p>Daniel: /* The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story:[[Scenario BB]])<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story...)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BB&diff=8392Scenario BB2005-12-02T16:19:52Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BB: Biotech Bubble Burst */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Scenario BB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
==Scenario Diagram==</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BB&diff=8387Scenario BB2005-12-02T16:19:33Z<p>Daniel: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Scenario BB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
Scenario Diagram</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_BBM&diff=8389Scenario BBM2005-12-02T16:17:46Z<p>Daniel: Daniel2 moved to Scenario BB</p>
<hr />
<div>#REDIRECT [[Scenario BB]]<br />
</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8388The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T15:41:32Z<p>Daniel: /* The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story...)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8385The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T15:40:32Z<p>Daniel: /* The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story...)<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8384The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T15:39:57Z<p>Daniel: /* The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story...)<br><br><br<br />
<br />
==Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8383The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T15:39:16Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario Topic */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
<br><br><br> ==Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8382The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T15:38:35Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst'''<br><br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
==Scenario Topic==<br />
<br />
Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
<br />
A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
<br />
The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
<br />
==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
<br />
'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
<br />
'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
<br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
<br />
<br> <br />
<br />
'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
<br />
'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
<br />
'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
<br />
'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
<br />
Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
<br />
Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
<br />
[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==System Diagram==<br />
<br><br><br />
This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
<br><br><br />
[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
<br />
Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
<br />
[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
<br><br />
[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br> <br><br><br />
<br />
==Usefull Links==<br />
<br />
http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
<br />
http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
<br />
http://www.bio.com/<br />
<br />
http://biotech.about.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
<br />
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
<br />
http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.biospace.com/<br />
<br />
http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
<br />
http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
<br />
http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
<br />
http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
<br />
http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
<br />
http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Danielhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Biotechnology_for_Medical_Applications_in_2015&diff=8381The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 20152005-12-02T15:38:13Z<p>Daniel: /* Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
This page contains the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:<br><br />
The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications in 2015<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015: Three Scenarios==<br />
[[Image:Scenarios Biotech 1.JPG]]<br />
<br>[[Three Scenarios - Overwiew]]: (click for larger image)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BB: Biotech Boost '''<br> <br />
<br />
After 2005, the Biotech market for medical applications has not only achieved double digit growth rates, it has even continued to grow at the astonishing pace of 20% per year on average over the last 10 years since 2005. Growth at such a speed has generated a market capitalization of 2,500 billion EUR as by now (2015). Because of the continued attractiveness of the biotech market, private but also public investors were willing to supply enormous funds in venture capital and for R&D sponsoring. so that nowadays the industry is able to serve the bottom of the pyramid ...(click for full story...)<br />
<br />
'''Scenario BBM: Biotech Business Matures'''<br><br />
<br />
The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before...(click for full story...)<br />
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==Scenario BBB: Biotech Bubble Burst==<br />
Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005. So, nobody was really prepared for what was to come...(click for full story...)<br />
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==Scenario Topic==<br />
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Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. <br><br />
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A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.” [http://www.library.ucsf.edu/collres/archives/bio/principles.html?printfriendly=1&] <br><br />
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The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear? <br><br />
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==Research Questions==<br />
'''Ethics & public opinion'''<br><br />
1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow) <br><br />
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development? <br><br />
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'''Ethics Drivers:''' US religious movements, propaganda, media attention, attention to "non ethical" invention <br><br><br />
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Answers are posted under [[Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Ethics & public opinion]]<br />
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'''Growth / Development''' <br><br />
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)<br><br />
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector? <br><br />
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started? <br><br />
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available? <br><br />
21. Is there a substitute for biotechnology?<br><br />
22. Are there other technological innovations in diverse fields which could attract investor attention much more than bio-technology?<br><br />
25. Which diseases does bio-technology cure? What is the forecast of these diseases, expected to increase, stabilise etc?<br><br />
26. What about the forecast of diseases in general? Are we expecting to see many more new diseases emerge like AIDS for example? Can Biotechnology be an answer?<br><br />
27. What are the long term effects of genetically modified organisms on the environment and on human health?<br><br />
28. Will biotechnological innovations in other fields like agriculture (GE crops) and materials negatively impact the image and sustainability of innovations in the medical applications field?<br><br />
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'''Growth / Development Drivers:''' cost of traditional medicine, decease applicability, substitutes, innovations, human health<br><br><br />
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Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Growth/Development Issues]]<br />
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'''Governmental and Regulation Issues'''<br><br><br />
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost? <br><br />
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop? <br><br />
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?<br><br />
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?<br><br />
32. Can the biotech development be stopped by imposing (general and international) laws?<br><br><br />
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'''Governmental / Legal Drivers''': Legal situations, new imposed laws, government control, international common laws <br />
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Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Governmental Issues]]<br />
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'''Financials'''<br><br />
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?<br><br />
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs<br><br />
29. Is/Can the cost structure of bio-pharmaceuticals structurally lower than that of ordinary pharmaceuticals?<br><br />
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'''Financial Drivers:''' Investments, Profit margins, cost structure, industry boom<br><br><br />
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Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Financial]]<br />
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'''Market'''<br><br />
13. What is the structure of biotech industry<br><br />
- Major players<br><br />
- Major research institutions<br><br />
- Major investors<br><br />
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?<br><br />
- Compagnies<br><br />
- Universities and Research institutions?<br><br />
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?<br><br />
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?<br><br />
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?<br><br />
20. What is the state of the industry? Is there consolidation happening? Why?<br><br />
23. Imagine there was no bio-technology today. How would the world look like? Is the size of the pie just as same/bigger than with bio-tech?<br><br />
24. What are the annual forecasts of leading companies in the biotechnology sector looking like? Significant growth expected or tampering?<br><br />
31. Will imposed (stricter) laws in one region (e.g. US) result in a move of R&D fund and expertise to other regions? Where?<br />
33. What is the role of the traditional medicine industry? Are they lobbying against biotech-based medicine?<br />
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'''Market Drivers:''' Market players, Investors, Industry success, Center of competences, role of major medical companies<br><br><br />
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Answers are posted under [[The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2005, Biotech Market]]<br />
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Out of scope?<br><br />
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare? <br><br />
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology? <br><br />
30. Can biotechnology alleviate poverty and hunger in developing nations?<br><br />
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==Driving Forces==<br />
'''[[Biotech Growth Rate outperforming classical pharmaceuticals]]'''<br><br />
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<br>'''[[Legal Restrictions for Biotech increasing in certain countries, decreasing in others]]'''<br><br />
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<br>'''[[Increasing Willingness and/or Ability of Governments to Sponsor Biotech Research.]]'''<br><br />
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<br>'''[[Increasing Private Funding (Venture Capital) for Biotech Research and Start-up financing]]'''<br><br />
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<br>'''[[Increasing ethical pressure (to restrict Biotech Research)]]'''<br><br />
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<br>'''[[Continuously growing demand for new medical applications]]'''<br><br />
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<br>'''[[Consolidation of Biotech Industry]]'''<br><br />
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<br>'''[[Increasing potential to grow based on new available technology]]'''<br><br />
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<br>'''[[Struggling old world economy]]'''<br><br />
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<br><br>'''Driving Forces: Overwiew'''<br><br />
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[[Image:Driving Forces Final2.jpg]]<br />
[[Overview Driving forces in Biotech for Medical Applications]] (click for large table)<br />
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==System Diagram==<br />
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This is an extensive version of the system diagram which has been used as one base to derive the relevant research questions. <br />
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[[Image:System Diagram Reduced.JPG]]<br />
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[[System Diagram: Biotech for Medical Applications]]: (click for larger image)<br />
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==Simplified System Diagram==<br />
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Based on the results of our research and the driving forces identified, the following simplified system diagram has been derived: <br> <br />
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[[Image:Meta System Diagram Small.JPG]]<br />
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[[Meta System-Diagram]]: (click for larger image)<br />
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==Usefull Links==<br />
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http://www.wbcsd.ch/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?MenuID=1<br />
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http://www.lib.sfu.ca/researchhelp/subjectguides/bus/biotech.htm#12<br />
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http://www.bio.org/<br />
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http://www.bio.org/news/video/greatnewfrontier.asx<br />
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http://www.bio.com/<br />
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http://biotech.about.com/<br />
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http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/US/Media_-_Release_-_06-01-05DC<br />
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/mva/biotrx.html<br />
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http://www.iisd.ca/sd/biotech/<br />
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http://www.biospace.com/<br />
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http://www.nature.com/nbt/index.html<br />
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http://www.cato.com/biotech/<br />
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http://www.netsci.org/Resources/Financials/Biotech/group.html<br />
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http://www.burrillandco.com/bio/biotech_book<br />
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http://www.ey.com/beyondborders<br />
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http://www.ebdgroup.com/biosquare/</div>Daniel